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Ecological Forecasting: Archive

News, reports, and features from previous years

2021

2020

2019

Large ‘dead zone’ measured in Gulf of Mexico (August 2019)

This year’s Gulf of Mexico “dead zone”— an area of low oxygen that can kill fish and marine life — is approximately 6,952 square miles, according to NOAA-supported scientists.

NOAA, partners predict large summer harmful algal bloom for western Lake Erie (July 2019)

NOAA and its research partners are forecasting that western Lake Erie will experience a significant harmful algal bloom (HAB) this summer.

NOAA forecasts very large ‘dead zone’ for Gulf of Mexico (June 2019)

NOAA scientists are forecasting this summer’s Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone or ‘dead zone’ – an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and other marine life – to be approximately 7,829 square miles or roughly the size of the land mass of Massachusetts. The annual prediction is based on U.S. Geological Survey river flow and nutrient data.

New Forecast Predicts Occurrence of Pathogenic Vibrio Bacteria in Chesapeake Bay (May 2019)

A new NOAA forecast shows public health officials in Maryland and Virginia when and where the pathogenic Vibrio vulnificus bacteria is most likely to be found in Chesapeake Bay.

2019 Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Seasonal Forecast (May 2019)

NOAA and its research partners predict that western Lake Erie will experience a harmful algal bloom (HAB) of cyanobacteria this summer that is larger than the mild bloom in 2018.

Video: Small Bloom Predicted for Gulf of Maine Red Tide in 2019 (April 2019)

Researchers with NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are predicting a small, red tide for the Gulf of Maine this summer, continuing the pattern of smaller blooms observed in the region over the last few years.

2018

NCCOS Funds $6.8M for New and Continuing Harmful Algal Bloom Research (September 2018)

NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) is pleased to announce support for 28 new and continuing harmful algal bloom (HAB) research awards in 2018. These awards, totaling $6.8M, fund projects around the nation and involve over 85 scientists across 54 institutions around the United States.

FAQs: Summer 2018 Red Tide Event Affecting the West Coast of Florida (August 2018)

An unusually persistent harmful algal bloom (red tide) is currently affecting portions of the southwest coast of Florida. View frequently asked questions related to this event.

Below-average ‘dead zone’ measured in Gulf of Mexico (July 2018)

NOAA-supported scientists have determined that this year’s Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” — an area of low oxygen that can kill fish and marine life — is approximately 2,720 square miles (7,040 square kilometers), an area about the size of Delaware. This summer’s dead zone size is the fourth smallest area mapped since 1985 and is smaller than the 5,780 square miles forecast by NOAA in June.

Smaller summer harmful algal bloom forecast for western Lake Erie (July 2018)

NOAA and its research partners predict that western Lake Erie will experience a harmful algal bloom (HAB) of cyanobacteria this summer that is smaller than in 2017 but larger than the mild bloom in 2016.

Average sized dead zone forecast for Gulf of Mexico (June 2018)

NOAA scientists are forecasting that this summer’s Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone or ‘dead zone’ – an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and other marine life – will be approximately 5,780 square miles, approximately the size of Connecticut.

Mitigation Strategies for Harmful Algal Blooms Span from Headwater Streams to Coastal Waters (May 2018)

New NOAA-sponsored research describes a paradigm shift in our understanding of the conditions that control eutrophication (nutrient overenrichment) and harmful algal blooms (HABs) across the freshwater-to marine continuum, and offers potential watershed-scale management strategies to combat the global expansion of HABs.

Four Different Algal Toxins Found in San Francisco Bay Mussels (March 2018)

Scientists have identified four kinds of algal toxins in mussels collected from San Francisco Bay. The study, published in Harmful Algae, is the first to report the co-occurrence of both freshwater and marine toxins in mussels consumed by humans and animals.

2017

NOAA Forecast for Red Tide in Florida (November 2017)

A harmful algal bloom (HAB) of Karenia brevis, the Florida red tide organism, has been detected within some coastal areas of southwest Florida. During a HAB event, NOAA issues twice weekly bulletins to monitor bloom conditions and the potential for impacts.

NOAA Helps Ohio Respond to Unusual Harmful Algal Bloom (October 2017)

Concerns regarding a large cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom (HAB) of Microcystis spp. and Planktothrix spp., which developed on the Maumee River adjacent to Toledo, Ohio in mid-September, led NOAA scientists to provide event response funds for initial testing and monitoring of the HAB for toxins.

NOAA Awards $1.7 Million for Harmful Algal Bloom and Toxins Research (October 2017)

NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science has awarded $1.68 million in FY17 funding for nine research projects to identify conditions that increase bloom toxicity; model toxin movement from water into shellfish, fish, and marine mammals; and improve toxin monitoring and forecasts.

Gulf of Mexico ‘dead zone’ is the largest ever measured (August 2017)

Scientists have determined this year’s Gulf of Mexico “dead zone,” an area of low oxygen that can kill fish and marine life, is 8,776 square miles, an area about the size of New Jersey. It is the largest measured since dead zone mapping began there in 1985.

Global coral bleaching event likely ending (June 2017)

After analyzing satellite and model data, NOAA’s experts say coral reefs around the world may finally catch a break from high ocean temperatures that have lingered for an unprecedented three years, the longest period since the 1980s.

Significant summer harmful algal bloom predicted for western Lake Erie (July 2017)

NOAA and its research partners predict that western Lake Erie will experience a significant harmful algal bloom this summer, potentially reaching levels last seen in 2013 and 2014, though smaller than the record bloom of 2015.

Global coral bleaching event likely ending (June 2017)

After analyzing satellite and model data, NOAA’s experts say coral reefs around the world may finally catch a break from high ocean temperatures that have lingered for an unprecedented three years, the longest period since the 1980s.

NOAA, USGS and partners predict third largest Gulf of Mexico summer ‘dead zone’ ever (June 2017)

Federal scientists forecast that this summer’s Gulf of Mexico dead zone — an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and other marine life — will be approximately 8,185 square miles, or about the size of New Jersey.

NOAA, USGS and partners predict larger summer ‘dead zone’ for Chesapeake Bay (June 2017)

Scientists expect this year’s summer Chesapeake Bay hypoxic or “dead zone”— an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and aquatic life — will be larger than average, approximately 1.89 cubic miles, or nearly the volume of 3.2 million Olympic-size swimming pools.

California Estuary Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring Begins (January 2017)

In January, NCCOS-sponsored scientists began harmful algae and algal toxin monitoring in California estuaries. The monitoring is part of a collaborative NOAA–state response to recent research showing that a mixture of marine and freshwater toxins can reside in estuarine waters. The research found that this toxic "cocktail" could also be fatal to shellfish, sea otters, and other animals in these habitats.

2016

NOAA, partners predict smaller harmful algal bloom for western Lake Erie (July 2016)

NOAA and its research partners predict that western Lake Erie will experience a less severe bloom than the record-setting one experienced last year during the harmful algal bloom season. The outlook reflects less discharge from the Maumee River and a return to an average nutrient runoff into the lake.

U.S. coral reefs facing warming waters, increased bleaching (June 2016)

Many coral reefs across around the world will likely be exposed to higher-than-normal sea temperatures for an unprecedented third year in a row, leading to increased bleaching—and with no signs of stopping.

Chesapeake Bay 'dead zone' to be average to slightly smaller (June 2016)

Scientists expect that this year's mid-summer Chesapeake Bay hypoxic low-oxygen zone or "dead zone" – an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and aquatic life – will be approximately 1.58 cubic miles, about the volume of 2.3 million Olympic-size swimming pools. This is close to the long-term average as measured since 1950.

Average 'dead zone' for Gulf of Mexico predicted (June 2016)

Scientists forecast that this year's Gulf of Mexico dead zone – an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and marine life – will be approximately 5,898 square miles or about the size of Connecticut, the same range as it has averaged over the last several years.

Gulf of Maine: Red Tide Bloom Smaller than Past 11 Years (April 2016)

This summer the Gulf of Maine red tide is predicted to be the smallest observed over the last eleven years.

Monitoring Florida Red Tide (March 2016)

NOAA and agency partners continue to monitor a bloom of Karenia brevis, the Florida red tide organism that has been persisting in some coastal areas in Southwest Florida.

2015

View current year forecasts and a map of key ecological "hotspots" around the nation.

Learn about ecological forecasting and how NOAA predicts ecological change.


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