>> THANKS LETTING ME SHARE SOME TIME TONIGHT AND WE'LL GO OVER
A FEW ITEMS THAT TOUCH ON SOME OF THE QUESTIONS MAYBE WHERE
CONFIDENCE WASN'T SO HIGH.
I DON'T THINK WE WILL BE ABLE TO COMPREHENSIVELY ADDRESS THE
WHOLE CLIMATE SYSTEM BUT WHAT WE WILL DO IS PICK OUT A FEW
PIECES OF IT THAT ARE ESPECIALLY INTERCONNECTED AND
REALLY DEMONSTRATE THROUGH THOSE ANTIDOTES,
KIND OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LAND AND SEA AND
ATMOSPHERE AND ICE, OR BIOSPHERE.
SO WE WILL DO THAT AND I DON'T KNOW IF WE WILL MAKE IT ALL THE
WAY THROUGH IN THE 40 MINUTES OR SO THAT WE HAVE BUT IF WE
DON'T, THAT'S FINE.
THE IMPORTANT STUFF IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FRONT.
SO, ALL RIGHT, MOVING FORWARD.
I'M GOING TO DO THIS COMMERCIAL SO YOU CAN TUNE OUT IF YOU
LIKE.
I'M FROM NCDC WHICH IS WITHIN NOAA AND WE'RE IN ASHVILLE,
CAROLINA WHICH IS IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
AND WE ARE BASICALLY WHERE A LOT OF PEOPLE GO TO LIVE IN
ACTIVE RETIREMENT IN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND A LOT
OF WEATHER DATA COMES THROUGH OUR BUILDING.
SO THE NUMBER THAT YOU SEE ON ANY GIVEN NIGHT ON A
WEATHERCAST, THEY END UP HERE AT NCDC AND WE'RE BASICALLY THE
WORLD DATA LIBRARY.
AND A LOT OF CLIMATE STUDIES ARE BUILT UPON THIS DATA.
AND I'M FROM THE CLIMATE MONITORING BRANCH WITHIN THAT
ORGANIZATION.
OUR MISSION IS TO MONITOR AND ASSESS AND ANALYZE AND REPORT
ON WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
SO, 15 OF MY FAVORITE PEOPLE IN THE WORD AND I HOPE MY KIDS
GROW UP TO BE LIKE ANY OF THESE PEOPLE, I'LL BE THRILLED,
A SUPER GROUP OF PEOPLE.
SO WHERE ARE WE GOING TODAY?
WE WILL TALK ABOUT A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
CLIMATE SYSTEM.
WE WILL TALK ABOUT WHY TODAY'S CLIMATE THAT WE HAVE GROWN UP
WITH, IS LIKE IT IS.
AND THEN, WE WILL FOCUS ON ESPECIALLY EXAMPLES OF HOW
DIFFERENT PIECES OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM ARE CONNECTED AND HOW
INTERRELATED AND SENSITIVE TO EACH OTHER THAT THEY REALLY
ARE.
TIME PERMITTING, WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
WEATHER AND ESPECIALLY EXTREME BIG WEATHER AND CLIMATE.
ALL RIGHT, SO FIRST THINGS FIRST.
STARTING OFF WITH A CONFESSION, EVERYTHING IN THIS PRESENTATION
IS SOLO.
I OWE TOO MANY PEOPLE TO RECOGNIZE,
SO NONE OF THIS IS -- I'M PART OF THE CAROUSEL OF BORROWED
CONTENT.
SO WE WILL JUST JUMP RIGHT INTO IT.
SO THIS LAST SLIDE WITHOUT PICTURES,
WE'RE GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT CLIMATE RATHER THAN WEATHER.
AND I KNOW EVERYONE HERE HAS A GREAT FAMILIARITY WITH THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLIMATE AND WEATHER.
SO JUST AS A REMINDER, CLIMATE IS MORE OF A LONG TERM.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT STATISTICS, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT AVERAGES.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT LONG TERM RELATIONSHIPS IN THIS PLANETARY
CLIMATE SYSTEM INSTEAD OF WEATHER WHERE WE'RE TALKING
MORE ABOUT WHAT'S THE STATE OF THE WEATHER ON A GIVEN DAY.
SO WE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT CLIMATE,
WHAT IS THE LONG-TERM SIGNAL OF PLACES,
WHAT ARE THE LONG-TERM DECISIONS MADE IN THE CONTEXT
OF THAT SIGNAL AND WHY THESE CERTAIN THINGS GROW AND
PROSPER, WHEN AND WHERE THEY DO ON THE PLANET.
AND THAT'S FINE.
ALL RIGHT, ANOTHER SLIDE.
SO THE BIG PICTURE FOR CLIMATE AND WE'LL TALK ABOUT THESE AND
THESE ARE TIED TO THE LITERACY PRINCIPLES.
THE ONE ULTIMATE SOURCE OF ENERGY IN OUR CLIMATE SYSTEM IS
SUN.
AND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IS ALL ABOUT HOW THIS ENERGY GETS
DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE PLANET AND THE THINGS THAT IMPACT THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT WE RECEIVE AND THE WAY IT'S WORKED
AROUND THE PLANET ARE FACTORS IN THE WHERE IT KIND OF ORBITS
THE SUN, THE ATMOSPHERE WE HAVE AND THE THE CHANGING
COMPOSITION OF THAT ATMOSPHERE.
THE FACT THAT THE AIR SPINS ONCE PER DAY HAS A BIG IMPACT
ON NOT JUST WEATHER BUT CLIMATE AS WELL.
AND WE HAVE A PLANET THAN'S COVERED MOSTLY IN WATER WITH
THESE PESTY CONFIDANTS THAT STICK OUT IN THE OCEAN.
AND THE CONTRAST BETWEEN TWO TYPE OF SURFACES,
PRETTY IMPORTANT TO CLIMATE AS AS WELL.
WE WILL TOUCH ON A COUPLE OF THESE AND WE'LL HIT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE OCEAN PART OF IT TODAY.
SO JUST A QUICK REVIEW OF WHAT WE ALL SEEN BEFORE IN OUR EARTH
SCIENCES BUT WE DO HAVE SEASONS FOR A REASON AND THIS IS -- WE
WILL GET INTO CLIMATE FIRST BUT WE WILL TALK ABOUT SEASONS
RIGHT NOW.
OUR SEASONS COME FROM THE WAY OUR EARTH ORBITS THE SUN.
SPECIFICALLY, WE GO AROUND THE SUN ONCE PER YEAR AND OUR NORTH
POLE IS ALSO POINTED AT THE NORTH STAR A GREAT WAY OFF IN
THE DISTANCE.
AND AS WE ORBIT THE SUN IN THE JUNE AND JULY MONTHS,
OUR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS POINTED, TILTED TOWARD THE SUN.
AND THE DECEMBER AND JANUARY MONTHS ARE MORE TILTED AWAY
FROM THE SUN.
AND IF WE WERE TILTED TOWARDS THE SUN,
WE GET MORE DIRECT SUNLIGHT AND WE GET LONGER DAYS AND WE ALL
THE RESULTING SUMMERS.
WHEN WE ARE POINTED AWAY FROM THE SUN,
WE GET LESS DIRECT SUNLIGHT FOR THE SUN IS LOWER IN THE SKY AND
WE RECEIVE MORE AND MORE AND MORE IN RECENT WEEKS.
AS WE LIVE OUR LIVES IN THE UNITED STATES,
WE HAVE SHORTER DAYS AND WE CALL THAT RESULTING SEASONS
WINTER.
AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE DISTANCE THAT WE ARE FROM
THE SUN.
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE TILT.
AND IT'S ALL ABOUT WHERE THE SUN'S RAYS ARE AIMED MOST
DIRECTLY ON THE PLANET.
WE'RE ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE SUN DURING THE
SEASON THAT WE CALL WINTER THAN WE ARE DURING THE SEASON WE
CALL SUMMER.
SO IT'S ALL ABOUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE PLANET
TOWARDS THE SUN.
AND THAT IS IMPORTANT TO CLIMATE FOR A FEW REASONS.
SO LATITUDE MATTERS.
AND WE GET THIS ENERGY FROM THE SUN AND THE REASON THAT DIRECT
MORE INTENSE LIFE IS IMPORTANT IS JUST LIKE IN THIS MIDDLE
EXAMPLE OF A FLASHLIGHT OR WHAT WE WILL CALL THE SUN,
SHINING ON THE EARTH FROM A DISTANCE.
WHERE IT STRIKES THE EARTH, THE MOST DIRECT ANGLE,
WE TEND TO HAVE THE MOST INTENSE LIGHT.
AND WHERE WE TEND TO HAVE THE MOST INTENSE LIGHT,
WE TEND TO ABSORB THE MOST ENERGY ON THE PLANET AND WE
TEND TO HAVE IT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
SO ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL, WHEN YOU AVERAGE OUT THE SUMMERS AND
THE WINTERS AND YOU KIND OF MATCH THEM ALL TOGETHER,
IT'S THE EQUATOR OBVIOUSLY GETS THE MOST ENERGY,
THE MOST DIRECT LIGHT, TEND TO HAVE THE MOST EVEN SEASON AND
AS YOU GO FURTHER TOWARDS THE POLE,
THE LIGHT COMES IN A MUCH STEEPER ANGLE AND NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE.
SO WHAT THAT LEAVES WITH IS A PLANET THAT IS WARMER IN THE
THE EQUATOR THAN IT IS AT THE POLE.
AND ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL IF IT DIDN'T REVOLVE AROUND THE SUN,
AND IF WE DIDN'T SPIN, WE WOULD HAVE A REALLY,
REALLY WARM EQUATOR AND REALLY RALLY COLD POLE.
AND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM BASICALLY SPINS IN PERPETUITY
IN TRYING TO THEN THAT IMBALANCE.
WE'RE BLESSED THAT THESE FLUIDS CALLED OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE
WHOSE MAIN IS TO TRANSPORT THAT HEAT AWAY FROM THIS WARM
EQUATOR FOR THESE COLD POLES.
AND IT SETS IN MOTION THESE WONDERFUL DAILY EVENTS THAT WE
CALL WEATHER.
AND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IS CONTINUOUSLY TRANSPORTING
EQUATOR TO THE POLES D IT NEVER CATCHES UP BECAUSE THE SUN IS
ALSO ADDING MORE TO THE EQUATOR AND IT MAKES FOR WHAT WE KNOW
IT IS THE KIND OF SYSTEM TODAY.
AND SO JUST AS A GEE WIZ FUN THING,
WE ACTUALLY DESIGNED FOR THIS STUFF.
SO THE REASON THAT MID-LATITUDE AMERICANS STYLE HOUSES HAVE THE
ROOF OVERHANG THAT THEY DO IS IT BLOCKS THE SUN OUT OF YOUR
WINDOWS IN THE SUMMER.
WHEN THE SUN IS HIGH IN THE SKY -- IN THE WINTER,
THE SUN IS LOW IN THE SKY.
SO ENGINEERS IN EUROPE FIGURED THIS OUT A LONG TIME AGO AND
THE FACT THAT THE SUN IS HIGHER IN THE SKY IN THE SUMMER NOT
ONLY PLACE INTO OUR ARCHITECTURE BUT IT GOES INTO
OUR SEASONS AS WELL.
ALL RIGHT, SO HERE'S THE RESULT.
SO THE MAP ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS SLIDE WITH A LOT OF WORDS
ON IT, SHOWS THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER TIME,
OVER AN AVERAGE YEAR FOR DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE PLANET.
AND AS YOU CAN SEE, AS YOU WOULD EXPECT,
THE EQUATOR LATITUDES, THE LOW LATITUDES TEND TO BE THE
WARMEST AND THEN, NEAR THE POLES TEND TO BE THE COLDEST.
AND NOT ONLY, THAT BUT THE EQUATOR RECEIVING THE MOST
DIRECT SUNLIGHT, THE MOST CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE YEAR,
PLACES NEAR THE EQUATOR TEND TO HAVE MORE CONSTANT TEMPERATURE
OVER THE COURSE OF A YEAR.
AND AS YOU GO CLOSER TO THE POLE,
YOU SEE NOT ONLY DOES IT COOL OFF BUT YOU SEE DRAMATIC
SEASONAL SWINGS IN THE CLIMATE AS WELL.
SO ALASKA AT THE NORTHERN SLOPE OF ALASKA YOU WILL SEE AVERAGE
JANUARY TEMPERATURE OF MINUS 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND IT SOARS
UP TO A BALMY 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN JULY.
THAT'S A BIG SWING IN A SIX MONTH PERIOD WHERE THE EQUATOR
IN VENEZUELA, YOU WILL SEE PRETTY MUCH CONSTANT THROUGHOUT
THE YEAR.
SO TWO THINGS THAT PLAY ON THIS MAP, FIRST OF ALL, YES,
ABSOLUTELY THE EQUATOR IS THE WARMEST PLACE ON THE PLANET,
GENERALLY SPEAKING, AND THE POLES ARE COLD AND IT TENDS TO
COOL OFF.
THE OTHER THING IS THE EQUATOR IS THE MOST CONSISTENT
TEMPERATURE ON THE PLANET AND WE TEND TO HAVE MORE VARIATION
CLOSER THE CLOSER TO THE POLE THAT WE GO AND THAT IS GOING TO
PLAY A ROLE WHEN WE FINALLY START TALKING ABOUT THE WAY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE OCEAN MOVES THESE THINGS AROUND.
SO WE HAVE OUR FIRST QUIZ QUESTION AND BRUCE,
IF YOU COULD LOAD UP THE QUESTION WITH THE QUESTION WITH
THE CURRENTS.
I BELIEVE IT SAYS, "WHICH COAST WILL HAVE CERTAIN CURRENTS."
>> OKAY, THE POLLS ARE OPEN NOW, PLEASE VOTE.
JUST ANOTHER FEW SECONDS.
OKAY.
>> ALL RIGHT AND I THINK IT WAS KIND OF A DIRTY TRICK ON MY
PART BRUCE, I ACCIDENTALLY GAVE THE WRONG ORDER.
I THINK THE NEXT ONE MAY BE THE -- REMEMBER THE ANSWERS TO THIS
BECAUSE WE WILL VISIT THIS IN A BIT.
THE NEXT FULL QUESTION, POLL NUMBER TWO HAS TO DO WITH
COASTS AND CURRENT.
CAN WE GO AHEAD AND DO THAT ONE AS WELL?
>> SURE.
THE POLLS ARE OPEN.
YOU CAN GO BACK TO ANY SET OF THESE ANSWERS AS YOU LIKE,
I BELIEVE.
>> SUPER.
THANKS BRUCE.
JUST A FEW MORE SECONDS.
>> ALL RIGHT THANKS A BUNCH.
>> SO IN ASKING THE QUESTION, WHICH COASTS OF THE CONTENT
TEND TO HAVE THE WARM CURRENTS?
AND IT TURN US OUT WE HAVE NOT EVEN GOT TO THE ATMOSPHERE YET
BUT ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT WAYS OF TRANSPORTING HEAT FROM
THE EQUATOR TO THE POLES IS OUR OCEAN SYSTEM AND THEIR
CURRENTS.
AND THE OCEAN TENDS TO BE DRIVEN BY THE -- THEY HAVE
LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION FEATURES CALLED GIGERS AND YOU
CAN SEE ON THE SCREEN, THEY TEND TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAJOR
OCEAN BASE AND THEY TEND TO BRING WARM EQUATORIAL WATER UP
THE EAST COAST AND THEY TEND TO BRING COLD POLAR ORGIN WATER
DOWN THE WEST COAST.
SO THE REASON THAT SAN FRANCISCO IS SO DARN CHILLY
COMPARED TO WASHINGTON D.C. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
RELATIVELY THE SAME LATITUDE, THEY ARE ABOUT THE SAME
DISTANCE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR.
WASHINGTON D.C. HAS A -- ITS OWN WARM CURRENT THAT COMES UP
THAT WE CALL THE GULF STREAM.
SO AGAIN THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE CONTINENT TEND TO HAVE THE
WARM WATER FLOWING BY THEM.
THAT'S AN IMPORTANT CLIMATE FEATURE AND IS SO MUCH HEAT
TRANSPORTED THROUGH THESE OCEAN CURRENTS AND THEY ARE ALL
ULTIMATELY CONNECTED BUT THE MAJOR BASIONS HAVE VERY
RECOGNIZABLE CIRCULATION PATTERNS.
AND JUST THE FACT THAT THE EQUATOR ABSORBS THE MOST HEAT
AND TEND TO BE THE WARMEST PART OF THE PLANET,
THE OCEAN IS ONE OF TWO REALLY IMPORTANT SYSTEMS WITHIN THE
CLIMATE TO HEAT FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE POLES.
AND BECAUSE OUR EARTH SPINS ONCE PER DAY,
IT SETS UP A REAL ROTATING ELEMENT TO IT BUT WE DO END UP
WITH THESE LARGE OCEAN GUISERS AND WE DO END UP WITH THE
EASTERN SIDE OF CONTINENTS GETTING IN GENERAL THE WARM
CURRENTS.
AND THE WESTERN SIDE CONTINENTS GETTING THE COOL CURRENTS.
AND YOU MIGHT NOTICE AND HANG ON TO THIS FOR LATER IN THE
PRESENTATION BUT WE TEND TO HAVE EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE
EAST THE WEST AND EASTERLY CURRENTS,
OCEAN WATER FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST NEAR THE EQUATOR AND
WE WILL COME BACK TO THAT.
ALL RIGHT.
SO THE ATMOSPHERE: THIS IS A CRAZY COMPLICATED DIAGRAM BUT
IF THE EARTH DIDN'T SPIN AND WE DIDN'T HAVE DAY AND NIGHT,
IT WOULD BE REALLY SIMPLE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD TRANSPORT WARM TROPICAL AIR TO THE POLLS
AND POLES DRIVE POLAR AIR TO THE TROPICS AND IT WOULD BE
THAT SIMPLE.
BUT THE FACT THAT THE EARTH ROTATES AND IT THROWS A MONKEY
WRENCH INTO THAT WHOLE PROCESS AND WHAT WE END UP WITH IS THIS
EMBEDDED SYSTEM OF CELLS ON A CLIMATE SCALE THAT WORKS
TOGETHER TO EVENTUALLY TRANSPORT HEAT FROM THE EQUATOR
TO THE POLES.
AND WE ALWAYS FOLLOW THESE POLAR CELLS AND THESE ARE
ESSENTIALLY WHERE WE HAVE, IF YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE THE SIDE
HERE.
SO IN THE TROPICS, WE HAVE LOTS OF RISING AIR.
AND WE TEND TO SEE LOTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THAT
RISING AIR.
AND EVENTUALLY THAT'S SO -- IT MAKES IT PART OF THE WAY THE
UPPER BAND UP TO ABOUT 30 DEGREES LATITUDE ON EITHER
SIDE, SOUTH OR NORTH.
AND WE TEND TO HAVE THESE SINKING AREAS HAPPENS.
AND SO, EVENTUALLY -- I'M SORRY -- ALL OF THESE DIFFERENT CELLS
WORK TOGETHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE WAY TO HELP TRANSPORT ENERGY AS
WELL.
THE FACT THAT THE EARTH ROTATES TENDS TO DISRUPT THE CLEAN
TRAVEL FROM EQUATOR TO COLD, SO THE FACT THAT THE EARTH IS
SPINNING TEND TO SET UP THESE THREE MAJOR CELLS AND KIND OF
ENDS UP WORKING TOGETHER TO A COMPLEX WAY,
EVENTUALLY TRANSPORTING THOSE EXTRA ENERGY.
IT IS A LOT MORE COMPLICATED DRIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
NECESSARILY THAN IT IS CONTINUE OCEAN.
BUT IT DOES GIVE US SOME OF OUR AQUATIC FEATURES.
IT IS NO COINCIDENCE THAT THIS SINKING AIR OCCURS AT ABOUT 25
TO 30-DEGREES LATITUDE ON THE MAP.
AND THEN, IT'S ALSO NO COINCIDENCE THAT THE EARTH'S
MAJOR DESERTS HAPPEN TO BE AT ABOUT 25 TO 30-DEGREES LATITUDE
ON A MAP.
SO, DESERTS, THERE'S MIDDLE EAST, VERY DRY.
SO THIS BELT AND THIS BELT TENDS TO SHOW SOME REALLY
HISTORICALLY DRY AREAS.
SO THERE IS A REASON THE DESERTS ARE WHERE THEY ARE.
AND THIS IS OUR FIRST REAL CONNECTION BETWEEN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE LAND WHERE WE HAVE THIS NATURAL SINKING
MOTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
AND WE TEND TO HAVE THE DRY PARTS OF THE EARTH.
AND THAT'S JUST AS SIMPLE AS THE FACT THAT,
AS LONG AS YOU DON'T HAVE DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER DISRUPTING
IT, ON THE AVERAGE, YOU GET SINKING AIR OVER THESE REGIONS
AND IT TENDS TO BRING DRY AIR FROM BEHIND THE ATMOSPHERE DOWN
AND SETS UP OUR DESERTS.
WHAT'S REALLY COOL IS IF WE WANT TO THROW THE OCEANS IN
THERE TOO, WE HAVE DESERTS IN THE OCEAN AS WELL AND SO WHAT
THIS MAP SHOWS, AGAIN, THIS IS LOOKING AT THE OCEAN.
THIS IS THE SALTINESS OF THE OCEAN.
SO THIS IS A MEASURE OF SALINITY OR HOW CONCENTRATED
THE SALT IS IN THE SALTWATER OF THE OCEAN.
AND IT PLACES WHERE THERE IS MORE EVAPORATION THAN RAINFALL,
THE END TENDS TO BE PRETTY SALTY.
AND IN PLACES WHERE THERE IS MORE RAINFALL THAN EVAPORATION,
THE OCEAN TENDS TO BE A LITTLE FRESHER.
AND YOU YOU CAN SEE THAT ON THIS SAME BELT WHERE WE HAVE
THE PLANET'S GREAT DESERTS, WE ALSO HAVE THE OCEAN'S GREAT
DESERTS AND THE OCEAN IS REALLY SALTY IN THOSE AREA WHERE
EVAPORATION DOMINATES PRECIPITATION.
AND SO THAT'S A WAY THAT YOU MAY NOT INDISTINCTLY THINK
ABOUT IT AND I KNOW I SURE WOULDN'T BUT THE 0 HUNG ITSELF
ALSO HAS DESERT AREAS, DRY AREAS AND AREAS OF ITS OWN AND
THE OCEAN IN THESE SALTY AREAS, THE OCEAN IS BASICALLY GIVING
UP MORE WATER THAN IT IS RECEIVING IN PRECIPITATION.
THAT WATER GOES INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AND RAINS OUT AS
RAIN OR SOMEWHERE ELSE ON THE PLANET.
AND SO THERE IS A FIRST BIG KIND OF LARGE SCALE CONNECTION
THAT WE CAN SEE BETWEEN OUR ORBIT,
THE FACT THAT THE PLANET IS ROTATING AND THE FACT THAT THE
ROTATION OF THE PLANET SETS UP THESE DESERT LIKE AREAS AND
IT'S NOT JUST OVER LAND, IT'S ALSO OVER THE EARTH.
AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE SEE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE IS
THAT THE SALTY PARTS OF THE OCEAN ARE ACTUALLY GETTING
SALTIER, AND THE OTHER PARTS OF THE OCEAN ARE GETTING SALTIER.
SO ITS' AN INDICATOR TO US WITH THIS NATURAL REFERENCE FOR
RAININESS OR DROUGHTINESS IS TENDING TO INTENSIFY.
AND THAT'S HAPPENING OVER LAND TOO.
THE DRY PLACES ARE TENDING TO GET DRIER AND THE WET PLACES
ARE TENDING TO GET DRIER AND SHOWS UP IN THE OCEAN AS
SALINITY.
ALL RIGHT.
SO ALL OF THAT TOGETHER AND WE WON'T DWELL ON THIS MAP,
BUT THE FACT THAT WE HAVE ALL OF THE HEAT BASICALLY
CONGREGATING OR IN THE EQUATORIAL REGION AND WE HAVE
AND WE HAVE OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE MOVING ENERGY AROUND
THE PLANET AND WE CONTINENTS GETTING IN THE WAY,
THAT SETS UP ALL OF THESE FANTASTIC CLIMATE TYPES
THROUGHOUT THE WORLD.
SO WITHOUT GETTING INTO WHAT EACH ONE OF THESE CLIMATE
MEANS, BASICALLY, THE TYPE OF CLIMATE THAT EACH PART OF THE
WORLD EXPERIENCES IS REALLY RELATED TO THOSE LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES LIKE WE JUST TALKED ABOUT,
WHERE IS THE LAND RELATIVE TO THIS -- THESE AREAS OF SINKING
AIR LIKE RIGHT IN HERE WHERE WE HAVE THESE GREAT DESERTS?
AND WHERE IS THE LAND IN THESE PARTS OF THE CELLS WHERE WE
HAVE A LOT OF RISEING AIR?
AND THAT IS THE RAIN FOREST.
THAT'S WHY WE HAVE THE DIFFERENT CLIMATE TYPES.
WE GO INTO THESE BUT WE MOVE MORE TOWARD THE RELATIONSHIP.
ALL RIGHT, SO, THIS WE'RE GOING TO LOOK AT QUITE A FEW
CLUTTERED CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAMS OF THE DIFFERENT CLIMATE
SYSTEMS.
THESE WERE ALL OBVIOUSLY DONE BY REALLY OVERZEALOUS ENGINEERS
THAT LIKE TO COMPARTMENTALIZE DIFFERENT PARTS OF IT AND
REALLY USEFUL FOR LOOKING AT.
SO FIRST OF ALL, LET'S THINK ABOUT WHAT A COMPLEX SYSTEM IS.
THE CLIMATE IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM AND WHAT A COMPLEX SYSTEM MEANS
IS IT HAS A LOT OF PARTS AND THEY ARE INTERCONNECTED.
AND THE PARTS ARE SENSITIVE TO EACH OTHER AND THE PARTS MAY
INTERACT IN WAYS THAT HAVE EITHER UNPREDICTABLE OR
SURPRISINGLY LARGE CONSEQUENCES IN OTHER PARTS OF THE SYSTEM.
SO HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN HAVE -- WE CAN IMAGINE A
CLASS WITH 32 STUDENTS IN IT.
AND THIS IS SAY ONE DIAGRAM.
AND IF SOMETHING HAPPENS WITH ONE OF THOSE STUDENTS,
IT PROBABLY WON'T HAVE THE SAME EFFECT ON ALL OF THE STUDENTS
IN THE SYSTEM.
DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THAT DISRUPTION,
IT MAY AFFECT DIFFERENT STUDENTS DIFFERENTLY.
IT MAY HAVE A HUGE EFFECT, IT MAY HAVE A NOTICED EFFECT.
AND THAT'S FOR DISRUPTING A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM.
AND LET'S SAY WE CHANGE THE TEMPERATURE OF THE ENTIRE ROOM.
AGAIN, IN A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF COMPLEX INTERACTIONS,
RAISING THE TEMPERATURE TO 80 WILL NOT HAVE THE SAME EFFECT
ON EACH INDIVIDUAL STUDENT AND IT DEFINITELY WON'T HAVE A
SUPER PREDICTABLE EFFECT ON THE ENTIRE CLASSROOM.
THESE COMPONENTS FEED INTO EACH OTHER IN WAYS THAT ARE
DIFFICULT TO EASILY QUANTIFY AND EASILY PREDICT.
SO YOU KNOW, WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE CLIMATE
SYSTEM, IT IS ONE OF MANY, MANY,
MANY COMPLEX SYSTEMS THAT WE ENCOUNTER THROUGHOUT OUR LIVES.
AND WE COME TO RECOGNIZE MANY OF THESE KIND OF SYSTEMS.
WE COME TO LEARN HOW TO MANAGE MANY OF THESE COMPLEX SYSTEMS.
AND SO WE ARE TRYING TO TAKE THAT SAME APPROACH AND
COMPLEXITY TO THE WAY WE LOOK AT CLIMATE.
SO FINALLY, HERE'S THE CLASSIC CLIMATE SYSTEM DIAGRAM OF ALL
OF THE PIECES AND ALL OF THE MOVING PARTS AND SUPPOSEDLY,
HOW THEY ARE ALL CONNECTED.
AND YOU CAN GO ON THE INTERNET AND FIND ANY MYRIAD OF THESE
PRESENTATIONS.
AND THEY ALL HAVE TO DO WITH THE COMPOSITION OF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS UP HERE.
THEY WILL HAVE TO DO WITH HOW DOES WATER MOVE AROUND THE
CLIMATE SYSTEM TO REPRESENT IT ON THE LEFT AND THIS DIAGRAM?
AND THEN, INCREASINGLY, WE BECOME MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW
CARBON MOVES THROUGH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
SO IT'S A PLANETARY SYSTEM THAT ENCAPSULATES WEATHER AND WATER
BUT IT'S ALSO SENSITIVE THE WAY CARBON MOVES THROUGH THE
SYSTEM.
AND WE WILL TALK ABOUT ALL OF THESE IN A LITTLE BIT.
SO HERE'S ONE EXAMPLE OF A SO-CALLED SIMPLE CONNECTION.
AND THIS IS JUST THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE LAND AND ATMOSPHERE
AND HOW THEY SHARE WATER WITH EACH OTHER.
AND WE ARE LEAVING OUT A HUGE PIECE OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
CALLED THE OCEAN BUT WE WILL GET THERE IN A SECOND.
SO THIS IS THE CLASSIC HYDROLOGICAL DIAGRAM WHERE
DEPENDING ON IN THIS CYCLE WHERE YOU WANT TO START,
AND WE WILL START WITH EVAPORATION AND TRANSPORTATION
FROM PLANTS.
SO THESE TWO WAYS RIGHT HERE ARE WAYS OF GETTING WATER FROM
A MORE LIQUID FORM IN THE GROUND TO A VAPOR FORM IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.
AND THAT MAY CONDENSE INTO CLOUDS.
AND THOSE CLOUDS MAY CONDENSE BUT THEY CAN GENERATE
PRECIPITATION WHICH MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND AS
RAIN OR SNOW IN WHICH IT BECOMES SURFACE WATER.
AND IT MAY INFILTRATE INTO THE GROUND AND FLOW THROUGH THE
GROUND WHERE PLANTS AT LEAST WILL PICK IT UP.
OR IT COULD BE INTERRUPTED OR REVERSED IN PARTS OF THIS
CYCLE.
SO JUST THINKING ABOUT THE TERRESTRIAL OR LAND PART AND
THE ATMOSPHERE PART, THERE IS A LOT OF CLIMATE AND WEATHER
GOING ON.
BUT THERE IS A LOT OF THE SHARING OF THE WATER THROUGHOUT
THE SYSTEM.
THIS IS ONE WAY IN WHICH THIS GIANT SYSTEM THAT WE CALL THE
LAND OR TERRESTRIAL PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMMUNICATES WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH WATER.
AND THERE IS A LOT OF NOT JUST WATER MOVING THROUGH THE
SYSTEM, BUT WATER REPRESENTS ENERGY.
AND IT TAKES A LOT OF ENERGY TO EVAPORATE WATER.
AND IT RELEASES A LOT OF ENERGY TO CONDENSE OR FREEZE WATER.
AND SO IT'S THE ENERGY HIDDEN IN THOSE LATENT HEAT
EVAPORATION AND CONDENSATION OF WATER.
SO IT'S NOT JUST COMMUNICATING WATER WITH EACH OTHER BUT ALSO
COMMUNICATING ENERGY AS WELL.
IF WE CAN THROW IN THE OCEAN, IT'S THIS DIAGRAM AS WELL.
IT'S BASICALLY THE SAME GENERAL PROCESSES.
BUT IN THIS DIAGRAM, THEY QUANTIFY IT A LITTLE BIT OF A
GIVEN AMOUNT OF WATER, HOW MUCH IS INVOLVED IN A CERTAIN PIECE
OF THAT CYCLE AT A GIVEN TIME.
BUT AGAIN, THE SAME GENERAL SHARING OF WATER AS A CYCLE
THROUGHOUT THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
THE MAJOR PIECES OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM BEING LAND, ATMOSPHERE,
OCEAN AND SURFACE WATER AND CRISPHERE FOR ICE ARE
REPRESENTED, ALL TOUCH EACH OTHER THROUGH WATER.
AND AS WE'LL SEE HERE SOON, IF YOU PULL ONE OF THE PIECES OF
THIS SYSTEM, YOU WILL BE MAKING CHANGES TO OTHER PIECES OF THE
SYSTEM AS WELL.
ANOTHER WAY OF SHARING THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE CLIMATE
SYSTEM, ANOTHER FACTOR THAT'S COMMUNICATED THROUGHOUT THE
CLIMATE SYSTEM IS CARBON AND WE'RE GETTING BETTER AT
QUANTIFYING THESE THINGS.
CARBON IS THE STUFF OF LIFE AND IT IS CONTINUOUSLY SHARED
THROUGHOUT THE CLIMATE SYSTEM AS THINGS GROW, AS TREES GROW,
THEY ARE TAKING CARBON DIOXIDE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ADD
CARBON IN MASS TO THEIR PIECE OF THE CARBON SYSTEM.
WHEN THEY BREAK DOWN A ROCK, THEY RELEASE CARBON DIOXIDE
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
WE ARE ALL WALKING AROUND BEING CARBON OURSELVES.
WE CONSUME CARBON BASED STUFF SO WE'RE A LIVING PART OF THIS
CARBON CYCLE AS WELL.
BUT AGAIN, SHARED THROUGHOUT LAND,
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO, THROUGH THE OCEAN.
AND WHEN WE INTRODUCE MORE CARBON DIOXIDE INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE, WE'LL TALK ABOUT WARMING LATER ON.
ONE CONSEQUENCE OF INTRODUCING MORE CARBON DIOXIDE INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE IS WE'RE INTRODUCING MORE CARBON DIOXIDE IN THE
OCEAN AS WELL.
IN SHORTHAND, THAT'S CALLED CARBONIC ACID.
SO IN THE WATER IN THE OCEAN.
AND SO OCEAN ACIDIFICATION IS THE RESULT OF INCREASING
CONCENTRATION OF CARBON DIOXIDE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT JUST A
FEW DECADES AGO WERE LOCKED UP.
SO AGAIN, THE CONNECTEDNESS EVEN IN THIS CYCLE AND IT'S
COMPLEX.
WE COULD SPEND THREE HOURS ON THE CARBON CYCLE ITSELF.
BUT THERE IS A CONNECTEDNESS TO ALL OF THIS,
BOTH IN THE NATURAL PARTS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE HUMAN PARTS
OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL.
SO WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT CHRONIC VARIABILITY AND I
THINK WE HAVE ONE MORE QUIZ AND IT'S FOR THE EL NINO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION PHENOMENON.
I THINK IT'S THE THIRD OF THE THREE POLLS.
AND SO BRUCE, IF YOU COULD LOAD THAT ONE UP, WE WILL TAKE THAT.
>> POLLS ARE OPEN.
JUST A FEW MORE SECONDS.
OKAY.
>> ALL RIGHT, SO YOU GUYS NAILED IT.
WE'RE GOING BACK TO THE DIAGRAM.
I DON'T KNOW IF YOU REMEMBER THIS BUT WE TALKED ABOUT HOW
OCEAN CURRENTS TRANSPORT HEAT AND IN THE PROCESS OF THE
TRANSPORTED HEAT, IT'S ALL MIXED UP,
HAVING THIS BIG GEYSER.
AND WE HAVE THIS EAST TO WEST FLOW OF CURRENT AND WIND ON THE
EQUATOR.
AND THAT'S GOING THIS LAY INTO WHAT WE CALL EL NINO.
AND SO IGNORING THE BIG GEYERS, AND JUST RECOGNIZING THESE ARE
THE CLASSIC EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT WE'VE WRITTEN ABOUT
FOR CENTURIES IN TIME AND WHEN THOSE WINDS EITHER RELAX --
WHAT THOSE WINDS TEND TO DO IS PILE UP A LOT OF WARM WATER
OVER HERE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE PACIFIC.
AND WHEN THOSE WINDS RELAX OR BECOME LESS STRONG,
A LOT OF THAT WARM WATER WILL SLOSH IT'S WAY BACK TO THE
SUPER PART OF THE OCEAN.
AND WHEN WE HAVE MORE COVERAGE OF WARM WATER IN THE PACIFIC,
WE CALL THAT EL NINO.
AND LIKEWISE WHEN THE WINDS ARE STRONGER,
IT PUSHES IT WARM WATER INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND WE GET
A LOT OF COLD WATER UPLOADING IN THE MAIN PART OF THE EPIC
PACIFIC.
WE CALL THIS EL NINO AND IT'S CONNECTION BETWEEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC CURRENTS AND THE OCEAN CURRENTS AND THE PRESSURE
PATTERNS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND MAINTAIN THE SETUP IN WAYS THAT
WE WON'T GO INTO BUT JUST THE PRESENCE OF THOSE BIG POLLS OF
WARM OR COOL WATER IN THE PACIFIC AND BASICALLY DEFLECT
THE PREFERRED PATTERN OF THE JET STREAM AS FAR AWAY AS WHERE
WE LIVE.
AND SO EL NINO WILL HAVE CERTAIN TYPES OF IMPACTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM IT.
AND LA NINO WILL HAVE CERTAIN PREFERRED IMPACT DOWNSTREAM.
AND WHAT WE HAVE ON THIS SLIDE ARE THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS WHERE IT'S GENERALLY WARM IN THE EAST
AND VERY WET IN THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST,
AND VERY DRY IN THE SOUTH DURING THE WINTER OF '2000 --
DURING MUCH OF 2011.
AND THAT'S A LOT WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT WITH A TYPICAL LA NINO.
THIS IS CALLED CHRONIC VARIABILITY.
WE'RE NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING OR CLIMATE
CHANGE YET.
BUT THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF A CONNECTEDNESS AGAIN WITHIN THE
CLIMATE SYSTEM AND WE CALL THIS A TELE-CONNECTION WHERE ONE
PHENOMENON IN ONE PART OF THE SYSTEM CAN CAUSE PREFERRED
OUTCOME IN ANOTHER AREA ON THE PLANET.
AND WE SEE THIS NOT JUST IN EL NINO AND LA NINO.
WE SEE THIS AS A PHENOMENON WHICH CONTINUES TO REALLY
DOMINATE FOR WEEKS AT A TIME DURING WINTER AND WE SEE THESE
THROUGH MANY OF THESE CLIMATE VARIABILITIES.
AND THEY ALL HAVE A LOT OF NAMES THAT ARE SUPER COMPLEX.
AND I WOULD BE LYING IF I TOLD YOU I UNDERSTOOD COMPLETELY ALL
OF THEM.
BUT THEY ALL HAVE TO DO WITH RECOGNIZING PATTERNS IN ONE
PART OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO CERTAIN PREFERRED
OUTCOMES IN OTHER PARTS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
AND AGAIN, AN EXAMPLE OF A CONNECTEDNESS OF A SCALE AND A
CONNECTEDNESS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
AGAIN, GOING BACK TO THAT CONCEPT OF THE CLASSROOM,
A DISRUPTION IN ONE PART OF THE CLASSROOM CAN CAUSE SEEMINGLY
DISCONNECTED RESULTS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE CLASSROOM,
PREVIOUS CONNECTIONS BECAUSE IT IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM.
AND OH, BY THE WAY, THE PRESENCE OF EL NINO OR LA NINA
CAN ALSO CAN ALSO INFLUENCE THE REALLY BIG PICTURE.
SO THIS IS THE GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FROM 1950 TO 2012.
AND EL NINO YEARS ARE COLORED IN RED AND YEARS DOMINATED BY
LA NINA COLORED IN BLUE.
AND THE EL NINO YEARS TEND TO STAND OUT WARMER THAN THEIR
NEIGHBORS.
AND THE LA NINA YEARS TEND TO STAND OUT COOLER THAN THEIR
NEIGHBORS.
SO IN GENERAL, NOT A HUNDRED PERCENT,
LA NINA TENDS TO HAVE A COOLING IMPACT ON THE BIG HUGE GLOBAL
PICTURE AND LA NINA, AGAIN, NOT A HUNDRED PERCENT,
TENDS TO HAVE A WARMING EFFECT ON THE BIG HUGE GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE.
AND SO IT DOES NOT JUST AFFECT OUR SEASON WEATHER OUTCOME,
IT CAN AFFECT OUR BIG GLOBAL TEMPERATURE OUTCOMES AS WELL.
SO THERE IS A CONNECTEDNESS NOT JUST IN PLACE BUT INSTEAD AS
WELL.
SO FINALLY, WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND HOW
MESSING WITH THE COMPOSITION IN THE ATMOSPHERE,
WHAT KIND OF CONSEQUENCES IS THAT?
SO AGAIN, THIS IS MOSTLY REVIEW BUT THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
BASICALLY KEEPS OUR PLANET SURFACE FROM BEING AROUND ZERO
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND KEEPS IT WARMER THAN IT QUOTE UNQUOTE
"SHOULD BE "IF THE EARTH DIDN'T HAVE AN ATMOSPHERE.
AND HERE'S HOW IT WORKS.
SO WITHOUT A GREENHOUSE EFFECT, WE WOULD GET ENERGY FROM THE
SUN THAT WOULD COME, STRIKE THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH AND WARM
IT, AND THE EARTH WOULD WARM AND REEMIT INFRA-RED ENERGY OUT
INTO SPACE AND THERE WOULD BE NOTHING TO STOP THAT FROM GOING
BACK INTO SPACE.
AND WHAT GOES IN WOULD ALSO GO OUT.
AND THE EARTH'S AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD END UP BEING
SOMETHING LIKE MINUS ONE DEGREE FAHRENHEIT.
BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WE HAVE THAT WE'VE ALL GROWN UP
WITH AND WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE, WE'RE NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT
HUMAN CLIMATE CHANGE YET, THAT SAME ENERGY PRETTY MUCH STILL
COMES IN AS DIRECT LIGHT, PHYSICAL LIGHT FROM THE SUN.
AND IT'S STILL EMITTED BY THE EARTH AS INFRA-RED ENERGY.
BUT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SOME GREENHOUSE GASES,
ONE OF WHICH IS CARBON DIOXIDE, THEY TEND TO ABSORB THAT ENERGY
AS IT GOES OUT, GETS WARM AND THEN RE-EMIT THAT ENERGY IN ALL
DIRECTIONS, SOME UP AND SOME DOWN.
AND SO EVENTUALLY WHAT HAPPENS IS SOME OF THOSE OUTBOUND
PACKETS OF WARMTH OR ENERGY ARE ESSENTIALLY -- THEY ARE NOT
EXACTLY REFLECTIVE BUT THE NET RESULT IS SOME OF THAT IS
REFLECTED BACK DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND WARMS THIS UP A
LITTLE MORE.
AND THEN SOME OF THAT OUTGOING ENERGY ON ITS SECOND TRIP OUT
IS ABSORBED AND RE-EMITTED AND MAYBE MAKES A THIRD TRIP DOWN.
SO WHAT ESSENTIALLY THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT DOES IS
HEAT-TRAPPING GASES.
THEY CONTAIN MORE ENERGY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THE EXPENSE OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.
SO WHEN WE HAVE A STRONG GREENHOUSE EFFECT,
WE HAVE A WARMER SURFACE AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WE TEND TO
AT THE EXPENSE, RE-COOL THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE BECAUSE WE
CONTAIN MORE OF THAT OUTGOING INFRA-RED ENERGY IN THE LOWER
PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
AND WHEN WE TALK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT,
WE'RE ESSENTIALLY TALKING ABOUT ADDING CERTAIN GREENHOUSE GASES
THAT MAKE THAT PROCESS MORE POTENT.
SO THE STRONGER CONCENTRATIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, THE MORE WE TRAP HEAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND REEMIT IT TO BE OBSERVED AGAIN AND AGAIN BY THE
SURFACE OF THE EARTH.
AND WE HAVE GREENHOUSE GASES.
ONE OF THEM IS WATER VAPOR.
ONE OF THEM IS CARBON DIOXIDE AND METHANE IS BECOMING
IMPORTANT.
THESE ARE ALL GREENHOUSE GASES THAT CAUSE MORE AND MORE OF
THAT ENERGY TO BE TRAPPED.
AND WHY IS CARBON DIOXIDE THE GREENHOUSE GAS?
TO BE HONEST, IS LESS POTENT THAN METHANE OR SOME OF THE
EXOTIC GREENHOUSE GASES.
BUT THE REASON CARBON DIOXIDE IS THE GREENHOUSE GAS THAT
EVERYONE TALKS ABOUT, IS THAT THERE IS A LOT OF IT.
SO THERE IS JUST MORE OF IT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE CONCENTRATIONS ARE HIGHER AND IT'S A VERY,
VERY STABLE AS A CHEMICAL COMPOUND.
IT IS A VERY HAPPY GAS, A VERY HAPPY CARBON DIOXIDE.
AND SO IT DOESN'T BREAK DOWN CHEMICALS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
SO, A POUND OF CARBON DIOXIDE THAT GOES IN THE ATMOSPHERE,
WE MAY SEE MOST OF THAT REMAIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
CENTURIES, RATHER THAN DECADES OR YEARS OR DAYS.
CARBON DIOXIDE IS A REALLY LONG LIST AND THERE IS A LOT MORE OF
IT.
AND THAT'S WHY IT'S THE GREENHOUSE GAS EVEN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE MORE POTENT GASES.
SO FINALLY, WHAT THIS HAS DONE AND WHAT THIS DOES,
IS IT WARMS THE SURFACE OF THE PLANET,
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THE SURFACE WHERE WE LIVE.
IT'S WARMER THAN IT WOULD BE WITHOUT THESE INCREASED
GREENHOUSE GASES THAT WE'VE INTRODUCED OVER THE LAST YOU
KNOW, MAINLY FIVE DECADES BUT A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THEN AS WELL.
ALL RIGHT.
SO WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT?
IT WOULD BE VERY EASY TO SHOW A GRAPH OF TEMPERATURE AND SAY,
OKAY, TEMPERATURE GOES UP.
BUT IT'S NOT JUST TEMPERATURE GOING UP.
IT'S A COMPLEX SYSTEM.
IT'S NOT JUST A TEMPERATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT GOES UP.
AND IN FACT, THAT IS A LITTLE CHAOTIC.
AND TO BE HONEST, IN THE LAST TEN YEARS,
THAT HASN'T REALLY GONE UP THAT MUCH.
BUT WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS EVERY YEAR LOSING MORE AND MORE
GLACIER MASS.
AND SO WE'RE SEEING GLACIERS TOTALLY DECLINE.
WE SEE OTHER CONSEQUENCES LIKE SEA LEVEL RISE.
WE SEE OTHER CONSEQUENCES LIKE THERMAL EXPANSION OF THE WATER,
MORE HEAT BEING INVESTED IN THE OCEAN.
SO AGAIN, GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT JUST ABOUT THE GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE ALTHOUGH THAT'S A STRONG INDICATOR OF GLOBAL
WARMING.
IT'S ABOUT CONSEQUENCES AND OTHER CONNECTED PARTS OF THE
SYSTEM AS WELL.
SO, THIS IS A VERY COMPLICATED DIAGRAM.
IT ESSENTIALLY TRIES TO SHOW THAT WHEN YOU PUT ONE PART OF
THE CLIMATE SYSTEM, THERE IS CONNECTIONS TO THE OTHER PART.
AND WE WILL GO OVER ONE KIND OF PRINCIPLE OF AN EXAMPLE IN THE
ARTIC.
SO THIS IS THE ARTIC QUESTION WHERE WE ASKED WHAT'S THE
INDICATORS OF CHANGE IN THE ARTIC?
AND SO WE WILL LOOK AT DIFFERENT CHANGES.
AND AGAIN, THERE IS ZOOMING IN ON ONE PIECE OF THE WARMING
WORLD AND SEEING THE CONNECTEDNESS BETWEEN THE THE
DIFFERENT COMPONENTS UP THERE IN THE ARTIC.
IT WAS EXPECTED TO BE THE PAST IS CHANGING PART OF THE PLANET
AND IT HAS BEEN THE FASTEST CHANGING PART OF THE PLANET.
SO WE ALL HEARD ABOUT SEA ICE MELTING BECAUSE THE ARTIC IS
GETTING WARMER AND THE PLANET IS GETTING WARMER.
AND WE'VE ALL SEEN PICTURES OF POLAR BEARS.
AND SO WE ARE GOING TO LOOK IN A MORE COMPLEX WAY TO SEE HOW
THE SEANS CHANGE AND THOSE PIECES ARE CONNECTED AS THEY
CHANGE.
SO THIS IS A REAL CONNECTION BETWEEN MANY PARTS.
SO FIRST OF ALL, IT'S NOT JUST SEA ICE UP THERE.
THERE IS A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ISN'T JUST MELTING SEA ICE.
WHAT THIS GRAPHIC SHOWS IS THERE'S A LOT LESS SNOW LATELY
UP THERE.
THE SNOW SEASON STARTS LATER AND THE MELT SEASONS BEGINS
EARLIER, AND SO AS WE GO INTO THE SNOW SEASON AND COME OUT OF
THE SNOW SEASON, YOU'RE SEEING A MUCH SLOWER SNOW ON THE
GROUND SEASON IN MOST OF THE ARTIC.
SO WHERE YOU SEE THE GROUND SHADES,
WE'RE SEEING LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND.
AND WE ARE SEEING LESS SNOW DEPTH ON THE GROUND AND WE'RE
SEEING SNOW MELT EARLIER.
IT'S NOT REALLY CHANGING THINGS MUCH IN THE DEPTHS OF WINTER.
ITS THE EARLY FALL SNOWS THAT ARE NOT REALLY HAPPENING MUCH
ANY MORE AND THE LATE SPRING/FALL THAT'S COMING A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN IT USED TO.
BUT IT'S NOT JUST SEA ICE.
BUT GOING BACK TO THE SEA ICE, WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN A
NORMAL YEAR ALONG THESE PINK LINES,
THAT IS THE KIND OF THE LONG TERM AVERAGE SEA ICE EXTENT AS
IT FINISHES ITS 6 MONTH GROWING SEASON IN MARCH ON THE LEFT,
AND AS IT FINISH ITS 6 MONTH MELT SEASON IN SEPTEMBER EACH
YEAR ON THE RIGHT.
AND SO THIS IS SEPTEMBER OF 2013.
THE WHITE IS THE ACTUAL ABSORBED SEA ICE EXTENT THAT WE
SAW IN SEPTEMBER.
AND THE PINK IS WHAT WE SAW ON AVERAGE OF THE 30 YEARS BEFORE
THAT.
AND SO THE SNOW COVERING SEA ICE EXTENT IN SEPTEMBER OF 13
IS QUITE A BIT SMALLER THAN AVERAGE.
AND IF WE WERE TO LOOK AT THE SEA ICE EXTENTS IN ALL OF THE
SEPTEMBERS GOING BACK TO LATE 1970'S, THIS IS WHAT WE'D SEE.
THE ARTIC IS THE BLUE AND IF IT WAS AVERAGE,
WE WOULD PUT IT ON HERE ON THE ZERO LINE.
SO WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST TEN TO FIFTEEN YEARS,
IN SEPTEMBER, A GREAT DEAL SMALLER SEA ICE EXTENT.
AND IN FACT, IN 2012, WE HAD ALMOST 30 MILLION -- I'M SORRY,
THREE MILLION SQUARE KILOMETERS LESS SEA ICE THAN WE WOULD HAVE
IN A AVERAGE YEAR.
SO WE'RE SEEING THE SEPTEMBERS, THAT RETREAT IS GETTING
GENERALLY SPEAKING NOT ONE YEAR AFTER ANOTHER BUT GENERAL
SPEAKING, SMALLER AND SMALLER.
AND WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU HAVE LESS SEA ICE IN THE ARTIC,
YOU GET MORE OPEN WATER IN THE ARTIC.
SO AT THE END OF THAT MELT SEASON, YOU HAVE LESS ICE,
YOU HAVE MORE OPEN WATER WHICH MEANS MORE SUNLIGHT IS ABSORBED
INTO THE OCEANS WHICH LEADS TO MORE WARMING WHICH IS WHAT WE
CALL POSITIVE FEEDBACK AND VICIOUS CYCLE.
SO THE FACT THAT THE ICE GOES AWAY,
THE WATER CAN ABSORB MORE HEAT, THAT TENDS TO ADD TO THE
WARMING OF THE REGION AND IT ALSO PENETRATES THE OCEAN AND A
LOT OF PLANT LIFE THAT WOULD NOT LIVE THERE BEFORE.
WHEN THAT ICE GOES AWAY AND THERE IS SUNLIGHT,
WE SEE A LOT MORE PLANT LIFE IN THAT PART OF THE OCEAN.
SO THE ECCO SYSTEM IS CHANGING.
THE ECCO SYSTEM, THE BIOMASS IN THE OCEAN IN THE ARTIC IS
CHANGING AS WELL.
AND MORE OPEN WATER ALSO LEADS TO MORE WAVE ACTION.
SO A LOT OF INFRASTRUCTURE WHICH IS MAINLY LIKE BIG BOILER
RIGS IN THE ARTIC IN THE NORTH SEA,
AS SEA ICE GETS FURTHER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THOSE,
THEY ACTUALLY HAVE TO ENDURE MORE OF A POUNDING BY WAVES.
SO ONE OF THE BIG MYTHS OUT THERE IS THAT AS THE ARTIC
OPENS UP FOR EXPLORATION, THAT IT'S GOING TO BE EASIER AND
EASIER TO BUILD -- IT'S ACTUALLY PROBABLY IN MANY
SITUATIONS NOT THE CASE BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO ENGINEER THEIR
RIGS, NOW TO TAKE MUCH MUCH MORE OF A POUNDING FROM WAVE
ACTION THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING UP OVER MILES RATHER THAN JUST
NEAR THE EDGE OF THE ICE.
WHEN YOU EXPOSE A LOT MORE WATER LIKE THAT,
IT TENDS TO BE WARMER THAN IF THERE IS ICE SITTING ON TOP OF
THE WATER AS WELL.
AND SO IT IS NO COINCIDENCE THAT CP,
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER BASICALLY HAS PREDICTED WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE COASTAL ARTIC COAST OF
ALASKA FOR AS LONG AS I CAN REMEMBER BECAUSE NORMAL USED TO
MEAN SEA ICE WOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST.
IF SEA ICE IS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WE HAVE MUCH MORE
OPEN WATER EVAPORATING INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST HEATING THE
ATMOSPHERE, WE ARE SEEING WARMER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
CONSISTENTLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SEASON FROM ALASKA.
AND THAT LEADS TO PERMAFROST METHOD.
AND THE WARMING AND MELTING OF FROZEN SOIL.
AND THAT CAN CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THINGS THAT WE BUILD LIKE
PIPELINES, AND HOUSES THAT WERE USED TO BEING SET UPON
PERMAFROST THAT ARE NOW SET UPON MUSHY SOILS AND IT COSTS A
LOT TO KEEP DOING THAT.
IT COSTS A LOT TO REPLICATE THAT.
AND WHEN WE LOSE THAT KIND OF PERMAFROST AND HAVE THOSE WARM
SOILS, WHAT THAT ALSO LEADS TO IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IS THE
SHRUBIFICATION -- A TECHNICAL TERM FOR IT -- OF THE ARTIC.
AND SO WHERE WE USED TO HAVE IN PLACES,
SMALL PLANTS LIKE LICHENS, MOSSES AND SEDGES WHICH ARE
REALLY DELICATE LITTLE GRASSES, THEY ARE BEING REPLACED BY
LARGER GRASSES.
THEY ARE BEING REPLACED BY THINGS THAT LOOK LIKE SHRUBS.
AND SO THE MIGRATION OF PLANT SPECIES ACROSS THIS FORMERLY
FROZEN TUNDRA IS REMARKABLE IN THE ARTIC.
AND WE SEE MUCH MORE PLANT LIFE,
MUCH MORE BIOMASS THERE AND THAT TENDS TO DARKEN THE SOIL
AND ABSORB -- DARKEN THE PLANTS AND THAT TENDS TO AGAIN AMPLIFY
AGAIN, AMPLIFY THE WARMING EFFECT.
SO THERE IS ALMOST AN ARMS RACE OF PLANTS INTO THESE PREVIOUSLY
FROZEN AREAS THAT LOOKS LIKE SOME REALLY RAPID CHANGES IN
THE ECCO SYSTEM.
AND WHEN YOU HAVE REALLY RAPID CHANGES IN THE ECCO SYSTEM,
YOU HAVE WINNERS AND LOSERS.
SO SOME SPECIES ARE GOING TO BE GREAT GREAT OR BETTER OR WORSE.
AND AGAIN, JUST TO SUM THAT UP, THAT WAS JUST A REALLY FAST
RUN-THROUGH OF HOW A CHANGE IN THE CRYOSPHERE WHICH IS THE
AMOUNT OF FROZEN STUFF UP THERE, SEA ICE IN PARTICULAR,
IN FACT, CHANGES IN THE OCEAN AND CHANGES IN THE BIOSPHERE
WHICH RELATE TO WARMING OF THOSE COASTAL TEMPERATURES
WHICH AFFECT THE TERRESTRIAL SYSTEMS AND THEN THAT AFFECTS
OUR INFRASTRUCTURE UP THERE AS WELL.
SO THERE IS JUST A CRUCIBLE PRINCIPLE OF CHANGE THAT
EXEMPLIFIES THE CONNECTEDNESS BETWEEN THESE DIFFERENT SPECIES
OF THE PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND OUR VERY OWN HUMAN SYSTEM UP
THERE AS WELL.
SO, WE'RE NOT JUST HELPING DRIVE THE CHANGE IN THIS LONG
CIRCULAR WAY.
WE'RE ALSO KIND OF VICTIMS OF THAT CHANGE AS WELL BECAUSE IT
BECOMES MORE AND MORE COSTLY TO DO THINGS THE WAY THAT WE'RE
USED TO DO THINGS UP THERE BEFORE WE STARTED FORCING THOSE
CHANGES.
AND I DON'T THINK I HAVE TIME TO TALK ABOUT CLIMATE AND
EXTREME WEATHER HAIR SO I THINK I WILL STOP HERE BRUCE,
IF YOU DON'T MIND AND I'LL HANG AROUND AS LONG AS YOU WANT ME
TO.
>> THANKS.
I APPRECIATE YOUR PRESENTATION THIS EVENING PULLING TOGETHER
ALL OF THOSE DIFFERENT PIECES AND SHOWING HOW THEY ARE
INTERCONNECTED.
I HAVE OF FEW QUESTIONS THAT HAVE COME IN AND IN THE
MEANTIME, IF FOLKS HAVE OTHER QUESTIONS FOR DEKE,
PLEASE WRITE IN THE QUESTION SECTION ON YOUR CONTROL PANEL
ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF YOUR SCREEN.
IF WE DON'T HAVE TIME TO ANSWER THEM NOW,
THEN WE WILL MAKE SURE THAT DEKE GETS THEM AND WILL INCLUDE
THEM IN THE NOTES OF THIS MEETING ON THE WIKI FOR
EVERYONE.
AND JUST SO EVERYONE KNOWS, THIS PRESENTATION WITH NOTES AS
WELL AS MY INTRODUCTORY SLIDE WITH LINKS WILL BE POSTED ON
THE WIKI FIRST THING TOMORROW.
SO DEKE, ONE QUESTION THAT CAROL HAS IS: WILL WE EVER BE
ABLE TO REVERSE THIS PROCESS?
AND IN PARTICULAR, SHE WAS REFERRING TO THE MELTING ICE IN
THE ARTIC, I BELIEVE?
>> YEAH WE VERY LIKELY WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO PUT IT ALL THE WAY
BACK WHERE IT WAS IN OUR LIFE TIME.
WE COMMITTED TO LARGE AMOUNT OF CHANGE IN THAT LAST A LONG TIME
BUT WE ARE STILL VERY VERY MUCH IN CONTROL OF HOW MUCH MORE
THOSE CHANGES WILL OCCUR.
BASICALLY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE CHANGES ARE CAUSED BY
INCREASING GREENHOUSE GASES, IN PARTICULAR, CARBON DIOXIDE.
SO THE REASON THAT THERE IS A GREAT BIG DEAL OF DISCUSSION
AROUND CARBON DIOXIDE AND HOW WE EITHER REGULATE OR TAX A
BUNCH OF POLICY OPTIONS OUT THERE THAT I REALLY SHOULD NOT
SPEAK TO, THAT THE REASON THAT THOSE POLICY OPTIONS ARE OUT
THERE IS BECAUSE OUR BEHAVIOR OVER THE NEXT ARE FEW DECADES
WILL HAVE PRONOUNCED CONSEQUENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
CENTURIES.
AND IT IS NOT NECESSARILY ABOUT PUTTING HUMPTY DUMPTY BACK
TOGETHER.
IT'S ABOUT STOPPING THE CONTINUED DISINIGRATION OF
HUMPTY DUMPTY.
SO WHILE IT SOUNDS A LITTLE BLEAK TO SAY WE ARE NOT GOING
TO PUT THIS PLANT BACK WHERE IT WAS,
WE CAN STILL -- WE STILL VERY MUCH CONTROL HOW MUCH MORE
ACCELERATED CHANGE OR LESS ACCELERATED THIS CHANGE IS.
AND THE SLOWER THE CHANGE AND EVENTUALLY,
IF WE PUSH IT BACK IN THE OTHER DIRECTION,
THE SLOWER THE CHANGE, THE LESS EXPENSIVE IT WILL BE FOR US AND
ALL SPECIES TO KEEP UP WITH THE RATE OF CHANGE.
SLOWING THE RATE OF CHANGE WILL GIVE US A MUCH BETTER CHANGE TO
MANAGE OUR RATE AND NOT SPEND SO MUCH OF OUR TREASURE AND
TIME AND RESOURCES AND TALENT TRYING TO JUST CATCH UP WITH
THE CHANGING CLIMATE.
>> I HAVE AN INTEREST QUESTION FROM JANET WHICH IS: HAS IT
EVEN DOCUMENTED THE INCREASE IN CRYOSPHERE PRODUCTIVITY DUE TO
INCREASED BIOMASS IN THE ARTIC?
AND SHE COMMENTS THAT SOME SEE THAT THAT AS PLUSES TO WARMING
EVEN THOUGH IT IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYSTEMS.
>> YEAH SO I THINK AND I'M AN OLD METEOROLOGIST SO THIS
SCIENTIST STUFF IS NEW TO ME.
BUT IN THAT CRYOSPHERE REPORT, NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY IS
RELATED BASICALLY TO PLANT ACTION IN THE ARTIC.
AND IT IS QUANTIFIED, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE BUT
IT'S ACTUALLY QUANTIFIED IN THAT STATEMENT THE FINAL
REPORT.
IF YOU GO TO ARTIC CHAPTER WHICH IS CHAPTER FIVE,
THERE IS A SECTION CALLED OCEAN AND THEY DO SOME NONES AS WELL.
I DON'T KNOW, I WON'T PRETEND TO KNOW WHAT THE EFFECT OF THAT
IS DOWNSTREAM ON LIVING SYSTEMS.
I JUST DON'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT HOW THAT WOULD AFFECT THE ECCO
SYSTEM AND LIVING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM FROM IT SO I WILL
PUNT ON THAT QUESTION.
BUT I DO KNOW THAT TH EDITORS OF CHAPTER FIVE,
MARK AND JEFFREY AND JACKIE WOULD PROBABLY BE ABLE TO POINT
YOU IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
>> YES, WE WILL BE SURE TO SEND YOU THAT QUESTION SO YOU CAN
ELABORATE IN WRITING FOR OUR PARTICIPANTS.
I HAD ACTUALLY AN INTERESTING QUESTION COME IN FROM ELIZABETH
WHICH IS: HOW WOULD YOU EXPLAIN THE CHANGE IN INFLUENCE ON
ARTIC PERMAFROST OCEAN TO THIRD GRADE STUDENTS?
>> YEAH, THAT IS A CHALLENGE.
I HAVE A 5TH GRADER AT HOME.
LET ME SEE IF I CAN THINK OUT LOUD HERE.
I THINK THAT NOTING THAT IF YOU GO OUT AND YOU LOOK AT ANY
PIECE OF YOUR YARD, YOU SEE THAT THERE ARE THINGS THAT
DEPEND ON EACH OTHER AND IF WE WERE TO ELIMINATE ALL OF THE
WILD FLOWERS FROM OUR YARD, THE BUTTERFLIES AND THE BEES WOULD
HAVE NOT BE IMMEDIATELY DESTROYED BUT THEY WOULD REALLY
HAVE THE TO CHANGE THE WAY THAT THEY DEAL WITH THINGS.
AND SO THE LOSS OF PERMAFROST AND THE CONNECTION TO THE OCEAN
IS KIND OF LIKE THAT.
AS YOU CHANGE ONE PIECE OF A SYSTEM YOU REALLY STRONGLY
INFLUENCE OTHER PIECES THAT ARE CONNECTED TO IT.
WE ALL HAVE DISTANT RELATIVES THAT PLAY AN INFLUENCE IN A
PART IN OUR LIVES BUT THEY DON'T NECESSARILY TOUCH US
EVERY DAY.
SO WE ALL HAVE MAYBE A GRANDFATHER OR A GRANDMOTHER
THAT WE DON'T SEE EVERY DAY BUT THEIR PRESENCE IS PART OF OUR
LIVES AND THE DECISIONS THEY MAKE AND THE WAY THEY LOVE US
AND TREAT US TENDS TO INFORM THE WAY THAT OUR LIVES PLAY
OUT.
SO THEY DON'T HAVE TO TOUCH US EVERY DAY TO HAVE A STRONG
INFLUENCE ON WHAT WE BECOME AND MANY OF THESE SEEMINGLY
DISCONNECTED PIECES OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM ARE KIND OF LIKE
THAT.
IT'S A PARENT OR A GRANDFATHER IMPACT THEIR PRESENCE EVEN IF
IT IS DISTANT.
THEY DO STILL EXERT SOME INFLUENCE OVER US SO THAT THE
DIFFERENT COMPONENTS OF CLIMATE SYSTEM TEND TO BE RELATED IN
THAT KIND OF WAY.
>> I HAVE TWO FINAL QUESTIONS AND BECAUSE OF THE HOUR,
I HAVE TWO FINAL ANNOUNCEMENTS AFTERWARDS AND THEN I THINK
WE'LL WRAP IT UP.
BUT THE TWO QUESTIONS THAT I HAVE FOR YOU DEKE ARE ONES FROM
VICKI AND SHE'S REFERRING BACK TO THE GRAPH THAT YOU SHOWED
ABOUT EL NINO AND LA NINA.
AND THE QUESTION IS: ARE THOSE THOUGHT TO BE AMPLIFIED BY
GLOBAL WARMING COMPARED TO LOOKING AT THE 1950'S?
AND THE SECOND QUESTION WHICH I MAY NOT HAVE TIME FOR THIS
EVENING, BUT SEVERAL ATTENDEES HAVE ASKED THIS WHICH IS,
WHY IS IT EXACTLY THAT THE AIR SINKS AROUND 30-DEGREES
LATITUDE?
>> YEAH, SO, I THINK WE CAN ANSWER BOTH OF THOSE.
HOW THE EL NINO AND LA NINA PATTERNS INFLUENCE THE
LONG-TERM WARMING OF THE PLANET AND VICE VERSA,
HOW DONG LONG-TERM INFLUENCE LA NINA INFLUENCE AND THAT IS A
VERY ACTIVE AREA OF RESEARCH?
AND EL NINO AND LA NINA ARE RELATED TO ANOTHER PHENOMENON
THAT WE TALKED ABOUT THAT'S BETWEEN THE DECADES TO
CENTURIES OF LONG-TERM WARMING, AND THE KIND OF YEAR TO YEAR
SCALE LA NINA AS A SPECIFIC DECADE SHIFT,
WHICH IS A HORRIBLE TERM.
WHAT IT IS THAT AS A PHENOMENON IN THE PACIFIC WHICH KIND OF
EBBS AND FLOWS OVER THE COURSE OF A COUPLE OF DECADES.
AND SO EL NINO AND LA NINA TEND TO HAVE KIND OF PREFERRED MODES
THAT ARE HIGHLY KIND OF RELATED TO THE PACIFIC OSCILLATION.
IF THE PDO SETS UP IN ONE PHASE OVER 50 TO 20 YEARS,
WE WOULD TEND TO SEE MORE LA NINAS OR STRONGER LA NINAS AND
FEWER EL NINO OR WEAKER EL NINOS OVER THE COURSE OF THAT
PERIOD.
AND WHEN IT STAYS, WE KIND OF PREFERENCE FOR THE STRENGTH AND
FREQUENCY OF MAGNITUDE OF EL NINO AND LA NINA ALSO CHANGES.
SO TO KIND -- ONE OF THE QUESTIONS IS NOT JUST HOW DOES
LONG-TERM CHANGE AFFECT EL NINO BUT HOW MAY IT AFFECT THIS
INTERMEDIARY?
AND IT'S JUST THIS REALLY TOUGH KIND OF NESTED SCALE PROBLEM.
THAT WAS ME TRYING TO USE A LOT OF BIG WORDS TO BASICALLY SAY,
I DON'T KNOW.
AND I THINK I'M SAYING I DON'T KNOW ON BEHALF OF MOST OF THE
RESEARCHERS.
THAT IS A REALLY GOOD QUESTION.
AND WHEN GET THE ANSWER TO THAT,
WE CAN REALLY TAKE SOME ACTIONABLE STEPS TO PREPARE
OURSELVES WHEN WE KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT.
SO IT IS AN IMPORTANT AREA OF RESEARCH AND THE RESEARCH GUYS
ARE ALL REAL SMART AND THEY ARE WORKING ON THAT THAT AS WELL
AND THE LADIES ON THAT.
AS FAR AS THE 30-DEGREES LATITUDE,
WHAT DETERMINES THAT IS ACTUALLY THE RATE AT WHICH THE
EARTH SPINS.
SO WE SPIN WE SPIN ONCE EVERY ALMOST EXACTLY 24 HOURS.
IF WE WERE TO SPIN FASTER, WE WOULD HAVE TO SET UP MORE OF
THOSE CELLS.
SO INSTEAD OF RE-KIND OF CLASSIC CELLS BETWEEN THE
EQUATOR AND POLE, IT'S BEEN FASTER.
WE MIGHT SET UP FIVE AND WE HAVE MORE STRIKES OF RISING
MOTION AND SINKING MOTION AND RISING MOTION AND SINKING
MOTION.
AND THOSE COME TOGETHER.
IF WE SPUN A LITTLE SLOWER, WE WOULD HAVE FEWER BELTS.
WE MAY HAVE TWO BELTS IN THAT AREA OF MOTION WOULD MIGRATE UP
TO 45 DEGREES.
THE REASON THAT THE RATE OF ROTATION SETS THAT UP IS
BASICALLY -- Omit elements: Page No./Line No.
Omit elements: Page No./Line No.
>> DEKE, WE LOST YOU.
THAT'S A LITTLE BIT OF A SHAME.
WE SEEM TO HAVE LOST DEKE.
I'M GOING TO POP ON FOR ANOTHER MOMENT TO SEE IF WE CAN GET HIM
BACK.
DEKE, CAN YOU HEAR ME?
WELL, APPARENTLY WE LOST DEKE UNFORTUNATELY.
AND HE WAS GETTING AROUND TO A REALLY INTERESTING ANSWER.
BUT UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE HOUR GETTING LATE,
I WILL MAKE SURE THAT WE GET HIS ANSWER IN WRITING FOR
EVERYONE ALONG WITH SOME REFERENCES WHICH WE PROMISED.
ONE THING THAT I WOULD LIKE TO FINALLY JUST OFFER TO EVERYONE
IS -- WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO MY SCREEN -- ARE SOME RESOURCES
THAT WE HAVE AVAILABLE WHICH MIGHT BE HELPFUL TO FOLKS.
AND THE FIRST ONE IS RESOURCE OCEAN RULES AND WEATHER AND
CLIMATE.
WE'RE -- ACTUALLY THERE ARE SOME VERY GOOD RESOURCES WHERE
YOU CAN UNDERSTAND MORE ABOUT BASICS OF OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC
ORGANIZATION AND MOTION AND INTERACTION AS WELL AS ENERGY
EXCHANGE BETWEEN THESE TWO.
AND THEN IN ADDITION, IF ONE GOES TO CLIMATE.GOV,
THERE ARE TWO AREAS SPECIFICALLY ONE IS THE FEATURE
SECTION AND ONE IS THE TEACHING CLIMATE SECTION WHERE YOU CAN
ACTUALLY PULL OUT PIECES OF THAT WOULD BE RELEVANT FOR
TEACHING IN THE CLASSROOM BY GRADE LEVEL AS WELL AS BY THE
SUBJECTS THAT WE COVERED TODAY.
AND THE LAST ONE IS THE WINDOWS OF THE UNIVERSE,
THE CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE SECTION.
THIS WILL BE VERY USEFUL BOTH FOR A REFRESH MOMENT AS WELL AS
FOR RESOURCES.