>>BRUCE: GOOD EVENING EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO THE APRIL NOAA
CLIMATE STEWARDS WEBINAR.
THIS EVENING WE HAVE DR. MARGIE TURRIN AND DR. DAVE PORTER FROM
THE COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY LAMONT-DOHERTY LABORATORY.
AND WITH THEIR PRESENTATION THIS EVENING DIVING INTO SEA
LEVEL CHANGE: IT'S 'APP'PROPRIATE.
NOW MARGIE TURRIN IS AN EDUCATION COORDINATOR AT THE
LAMONT-DOHERTY EARTH OBSERVATORY LABORATORY WHERE
SHE DEVELOPS AND DELIVERS A RANGE OF SCIENTIFIC EDUCATION
PROJECTS FOR ALL AGES.
SHE HAS WORKED EXTENSIVELY WITH POLAR EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES
TO BUILD CONNECTIONS TO THE PUBLIC AND THE UNDERSTANDING OF
THE IMPORTANCE OF THESE SEEMINGLY REMOTE REGIONS.
SHE FOCUSES ON ENGAGING STUDENTS AND THE PUBLIC IN
UNDERSTANDING OUR CHANGING CLIMATE THROUGH LOOKING AT
CONNECTIONS BETWEEN HUMAN INTERACTIONS AND IMPACTS ON
THEIR ENVIRONMENTS AND CHANGES IN OUR POLAR REGIONS.
SHE'S PARTICIPATED IN FIELDWORK PROJECTS IN BOTH POLES,
FLYING OVER THE ICE WITH INSTRUMENTS,
MEASURING ICE THICKNESS BELOW, AND OPERATING OUT OF SMALL
BOATS AND MOVING RIGHT UP TO THE ICE WHILE COLLECTING OCEAN
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS.
SHE BELIEVES THAT EFFECTIVE SCIENCE EDUCATION INCLUDES REAL
DATA AND HAS CO-AUTHORED AN ASSOCIATION OF EDUCATION
PUBLISHERS AWARD-WINNING BOOK, EARTH SCIENCE PUZZLES: MAKING
MEANING FROM DATA.
TONIGHT SHE'S GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE RECENTLY RELEASED APP
SHE CO-DEVELOPED ON UNDERSTANDING SEA LEVEL CHANGE,
POLAR EXPLORER: SEA LEVEL.
AND FIRST UP ON OUR ROSTER IS DR. DAVE PORTER,
AN ASSOCIATE RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT LAMONT-DOHERTY.
AND HE'S INTERESTED IN THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE
CRYOSPHERE AND OTHER COMPONENTS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
SOME OF THE PROJECTS THAT HE'S BEEN INVOLVED WITH INCLUDE
ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSES TO SEA ICE DECLINE,
GLACIER MELT DUE TO OCEAN WARMING,
GRAVITY INVERSIONS TO RECOVER BATHYMETRY BELOW FLOATING ICE,
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF GLACIER CHANGE IN GREENLAND,
AND PARTICLE IMAGE VELACYMETRY OF SEDIMENT PLUMES AND FJORDS.
HE'S DONE RESEARCH AT BOTH POLES USING TOOLS RANGING FROM
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ON-THE-GROUND OBSERVATIONS AND
HIS RESEARCH PLATFORMS HAVE INCLUDED HIGH-PERFORMANCE
SUPERCOMPUTERS, MILITARY CARGO TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT,
SMALL FIVE-METER FISHING SKIDS, AND HUNDRED-METER ICEBREAKERS.
HE ALSO ACTIVELY PARTICIPATES IN OUTREACH EVENTS IN THE NEW
YORK AREA AND HAS BEEN THE PALACE FOR SEVERAL FILMS.
AND HE HAS ALSO WORKED WITH MARGIE TURRIN ON DEVELOPING THE
APP, THE IOS APP FOR POLAR EXPLORER: SEA LEVEL.
WITHOUT FURTHER ADO, DR. DAVE PORTER.
IT'S ALL YOURS; TAKE IT AWAY.
>>DAVE: ALL RIGHT.
THANK YOU, BRUCE.
YEAH, SO MY NAME IS DAVID PORTER AND I'M -- AS BRUCE SAID
-- I'M A RESEARCH SCIENTIST HERE AT LAMONT-DOHERTY EARTH
OBSERVATORY WHICH IS A PART OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY.
AND ON THE OPENING SLIDE HERE YOU CAN SEE A PICTURE OF MARGIE
AND I IN THE FIELD, BOTH IN ANTARCTICA HERE,
AS WELL AS ONE OF THE AIRCRAFT THAT WE USED TO DO OUR
RESEARCH.
AND WE ALSO HAVE SOME LOGOS FROM OUR SPONSORS THAT HAVE
SPONSORED MOST OF THE RESEARCH THAT WE DO,
AND WITHOUT THEM NONE OF THIS WORK WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
SO MARGIE TURRIN IS THE OTHER PRESENTER TONIGHT.
AND SHE'LL BE PRESENTING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PRESENTATION
WHICH WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE APP ITSELF AND SEA LEVEL
RISE AND CONTRIBUTIONS TO THAT.
SO I WILL BE GOING OVER ABOUT THE FIRST HALF WITH THE SCIENCE
BEHIND SEA LEVEL RISE.
SO QUICKLY WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT AN OUTLINE FOR TONIGHT.
AND SO FIRST WE'RE GOING TO SAY WHY DO WE STUDY THE POLAR
REGIONS; WHAT OUR POLAR GEOPHYSICS TEAM DOES AT
LAMONT-DOHERTY; HOW IT RELATES TO SEA LEVEL;
AND WHAT THE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL IS;
AND THEN ALSO HOW OUR APP HELPS EXPLORE SEA LEVEL CHANGES;
AND HOW YOU USE IT IN THE CLASSROOM FOR YOUR INDIVIDUAL
AUDIENCES.
AND SO WE HAVE A FEW QUESTIONS THAT WE ARE GOING TO ASK FOR
YOU TODAY.
DOWN ON THE RIGHT YOU SEE Q1, SO, BRUCE,
IF YOU HAVE QUESTION ONE -- AND THIS QUESTION IS GOING TO BE TO
HELP US GET SOME FEEDBACK ABOUT OUR AUDIENCE.
IF YOU'D PLEASE ANSWER THIS AND SUBMIT YOUR ANSWER AND WILL
DISCUSS IT QUICKLY.
>>BRUCE: OKAY, WE'RE GOING TO LEAVE THIS UP FOR JUST ABOUT A
MINUTE.
WE'VE GOT 80 PERCENT OF PEOPLE VOTING.
OKAY.
ABOUT 80 PERCENT UP; THERE'S ABOUT 90 PERCENT.
WE'RE GOING TO CLOSE UP THE POLL.
AND HERE ARE THE RESULTS.
>>DAVE: ALL RIGHT.
SO THE RESULTS ARE IN.
SO THE FIRST QUESTION WAS HOW MUCH DO YOU INCLUDE DISCUSSIONS
ON SEA LEVEL RISE IN YOUR CURRENT TEACHING.
AND SO THAT'S GREAT.
44 PERCENT OF YOU, ALMOST HALF OF YOU,
SAY YOU DISCUSS CLIMATE WHENEVER -- YOU INCLUDE SEA
LEVEL RISE WHENEVER YOU DISCUSS CLIMATE.
THAT'S GREAT.
THAT MEANS WE HAVE A TOOL THAT'S REALLY GOING TO HELP YOU
DISCUSS THIS TOPIC AND IS REALLY GREAT TO INCLUDE IN YOUR
CURRICULUM.
SO DEFINITELY STICK AROUND FOR MARGIE'S TALK.
I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO BE EXCITED ABOUT THIS NEW APP.
OKAY, SO THE FIRST IMAGE WE HAVE HERE LOOKS AT A VIEW OF
THE EARTH.
IT'S A TOPOGRAPHIC RELIEF OF BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE.
AND, REALLY, WE SHOW THIS TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF JUST HOW
MUCH ICE THERE IS FOR THESE TWO ICE SHEETS.
SO, OF COURSE, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT ANTARCTICA ON THE LEFT
AND GREENLAND ON THE RIGHT.
SO THESE ARE SURFACE TOPOGRAPHIES.
AND SO WITH ANTARCTICA YOU CAN SEE THAT THE AMOUNT OF ICE IN
ANTARCTICA RIVALS THAT OF THE ANDES MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH
AMERICA.
AND, SIMILARLY, IN GREENLAND YOU CAN SEE THE SURFACE IS SO
HIGH THERE THAT'S IT GOT SO MUCH ICE THAT IT RIVALS THAT OF
THE HIMALAYAS.
THESE ARE THE AREAS WE'RE INTERESTED IN AND WE'RE GOING
TO TALK ABOUT A LITTLE BIT MORE THEM SOON.
SO TO GET INTO IT, THERE ARE TWO MAJOR TYPES OF ICE,
AS FAR AS THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IS CONCERNED.
TODAY WERE GOING TO TALK ABOUT LAND ICE,
BUT THERE'S ANOTHER TYPE OF ICE THAT WE CALL SEA ICE.
THEY ARE FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT PROCESSES SO I AM
GOING TO QUICKLY CLARIFY.
LAND ICE IS WHAT YOU THINK OF AS AN ICE SHEET, GLACIERS.
THEY SIT ON LAND AND THEY ARE VERY THICK.
AND THEY FORM FROM SNOW FALL THAT ACCUMULATES OVER THE
YEARS, CONDENSES UNDER ITS OWN WEIGHT, INTENSIFIES,
BECOMES ICE.
ON THE RIGHT, WE HAVE SEA ICE.
SEA ICE FORMS FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENTLY;
IT'S FROZEN SEA WATER.
SO THIS IS WHERE YOU COOL THE SURFACE OF THE WATER DOWN TO
ITS FREEZING POINT AND IT FREEZES IN PLACE.
THE ICE USUALLY IS ONLY A FEW METERS THICK.
GLACIER ICE OR LAND ICE ON THE LEFT CAN BE SEVERAL MILES
THICK.
SO WE'RE GOING TO FOCUS ON LAND ICE TONIGHT BECAUSE THAT IS THE
ONE THAT HAS POTENTIAL INFLUENCES ON SEA LEVEL
CHANGES.
SEA ICE HAS OTHER IMPORTANT CLIMATIC IMPLICATIONS,
BUT IT IS ALREADY FLOATING AND SO WHEN IT MELTS IT DOES NOT
CHANGE SEA LEVEL RISE DIRECTLY.
SO TODAY WE'RE GOING TO BE FOCUSING ON LAND ICE.
SO AS I MENTIONED BEFORE THERE ARE TWO ICE SHEETS REMAINING
TODAY.
SO THE FIRST ONE IS GREENLAND, JUST TO GIVE A BIT OF AN
ORIENTATION HERE.
SO THE DEFINITION OF AN ICE SHEET IS THAT IT'S A LAND-BASED
GLACIAL ICE THAT EXTENDS OVER 50,000 SQUARE KILOMETERS,
WHICH IS ABOUT TWO TIMES THE SIZE OF MARYLAND.
IN THE ARCTIC WE HAVE GREENLAND.
NOW THAT'S THREE TIMES THE SIZE OF TEXAS AND MOST OF GREENLAND
IS GLACIATED.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE MAP ON THE LOWER RIGHT YOU CAN SEE
THAT THERE ARE BARE ROCK ON THE PERIPHERIES BUT OTHERWISE IT'S
REALLY ONE LARGE ICE SHEET WITH SOME OTHER SMALL ICECAPS
SURROUNDING IT.
THE ICE SHEET IS UP TO TWO MILES THICK IN THE MIDDLE,
AND THE ICE SHEET BEGAN TO FORM ABOUT THREE TO FOUR MILLION
YEARS AGO.
NOW THERE'S BEEN PULSES OF GLACIATIONS IN BETWEEN THERE,
SOMETIMES THE SHEETS SHRINKING, EXPANDING BUT ONSET OF
GLACIATION WAS ABOUT THREE TO FOUR MILLION YEARS AGO.
HERE'S A PICTURE THAT MARGIE TOOK FROM THE TOP OF THE
GREENLAND ICE SHEET, CAMP RAVEN,
AND THIS GIVES SORT OF AN IDEA WHAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT WE'RE
LOOKING AT HERE.
YOU CAN SEE THE TAIL WING OF THE PLANE ON THE LEFT.
YOU CAN SEE THAT THE FLAGS ARE BLOWING PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE HERE.
IT'S VERY STRONG, LOTS OF WIND UP THERE,
WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HERE.
SO EVEN THOUGH THE ICE SHEET IS VERY TALL AND VERY HIGH,
IT'S NOT LIKE A MOUNTAIN THAT'S VERY STEEP.
IT IS VERY FLAT IN THE MIDDLE.
SO THIS ALLOWS US TO LAND THE PLANES ON THE ICE SHEET.
SO THIS PISTENBULLY BULLY IS USED TO GROOM THE ICE SHEET SO
IT'S A NICE AND LEVEL LANDING SURFACE FOR THE PLANE.
SO THE OTHER ICE SHEET ICE SHEET IS ANTARCTICA.
AND SOMETIMES WE TALK ABOUT THEM IN TWO ICE SHEETS,
EAST ANTARCTIC AND WEST ANTARCTICA,
THAT'S BECAUSE THEY ARE SORT OF SEPARATED BECAUSE THEY
CONFLUENSE IN THE MIDDLE WE CAN GROUP THEM AS ONE FOR THIS
DISCUSSION.
SO ANTARCTICA IS SEVEN TIMES LARGER THAN GREENLAND,
SO MUCH LARGER.
IT'S ONE AND A HALF TIMES THE SIZE OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES.
THE ICE SHEET IS THREE MILES THICK AND COVERS 97 PERCENT OF
THE CONTINENT, SO VERY LITTLE BARE ROCK AROUND THE OUTSIDE.
THE ICE SHEET BEGAN TO FORM 35 MILLION YEARS AGO,
MUCH OLDER THAN GREENLAND.
WE ALSO HAVE THE OLDEST DATED ICE CORE COMES FROM ANTARCTICA,
AND IT'S FROM AN AREA CALLED DOME C AND THAT GOES BACK THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILLION YEAR.
THIS IS WHERE WE GET A LOT OF THE DATA,
THE PALEOCLIMATE DATA, THAT WE USE FOR PAST GLACIATIONS.
AND TO GIVE YOU SENSE OF THE SCALE OF ANTARCTICA,
THIS IS ANOTHER PHOTO MARGIE TOOK WHICH SHOWS JUST THE
VASTNESS OF THE ENVIRONMENT.
YOU CAN SEE THE SMALL BOAT HERE IN THE FOREGROUND,
AND JUST THE SCALE OF THE LANDSCAPE IN ANTARCTICA AND HOW
AMAZING IT IS.
THIS NEXT ONE, ALSO FROM MARGIE,
GIVES A GREAT IDEA OF THE AMOUNT OF ICE THERE.
IT'S JUST HUGE LANDSCAPES, DRAMATIC PEAKS, LOTS OF ICE,
AND WHEN YOU SEE THIS IT HELPS DRIVE HOME HOW MUCH ICE THERE
IS THERE AND HOW MUCH POTENTIAL SEA LEVEL RISE IS IN THESE ICE
SHEETS.
SO THERE'S SEVERAL REASONS WHY WE FOCUS ON THE POLAR REGIONS.
THE FIRST IS THAT THERE'S AN ENERGY DEFICIT AT THE POLES.
SO, AS WE ALL KNOW, THE TROPICS ARE WARMER THAN THE POLES,
AND SO WHAT WEATHER IS IT'S SORT OF THIS TRYING TO ERODE
THIS ENERGY GRADIENT, THIS DEFICIT,
FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE POLES.
SO EARTH IS TRYING TO SHED HEAT NORTHWARDS AND SOUTHWARDS.
THE OCEAN IS THE OTHER WAY OF TRANSFERRING THAT HEAT TOWARDS
THE POLES.
AND SO WE'RE ALL FAMILIAR WITH THE GULFSTREAM AND OTHER WARM
CURRENTS AND YOU CAN SEE THEM HERE IN THIS SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURE MAP FROM NASA.
AND WE SEE THE WARM GULFSTREAM, ANOTHER WARM CURRENT EXTENDING
FORWARD.
WHAT WE ALSO NOTICED IS THAT AROUND ANTARCTICA IT'S VERY
COLD WATERS, AS WE'D EXPECT.
AROUND GREENLAND THE STORY'S A LITTLE DIFFERENT.
YOU CAN SEE ON THE SOUTHEAST GREENLAND, NEAR ICELAND,
THERE'S WARM WATER, WARMER, THAN THERE IS AROUND
ANTARCTICA.
AND THIS WARM WATER COULD POTENTIALLY MELT GLACIER THERE.
THE OTHER THING IS THAT THE GLOBAL OCEANS PLAY A ROLE IN
THIS THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION, THIS CONVEYOR BELT OF WATER,
THAT GOES GENERALLY FROM THE TROPICS TO THE POLES.
AND ONE CONCERN IS THAT WITH CHANGING MELTWATER FLUX INTO
THE POLES THAT WE CAN SHUT DOWN THE CIRCULATION OR SLOW IT
DOWN, AND IF WE SLOW DOWN THIS CONVEYOR BELT IT WILL HAVE
FAR-RANGING EFFECTS ON THE REGENERATION OF DEEP WATER
WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THIS ENERGY BALANCE,
AS WELL AS SEA LIFE.
SO THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY WE ARE INTERESTED IN THE
POLAR REGION.
THE OTHER IS POLAR AMPLIFICATION.
SO THIS IS THE TERM WE USE FOR WHEN THE POLES WARM MORE THAN
THE TROPIC OR MID-LATITUDE COUNTERPARTS.
AND THIS IS CURRENTLY GOING ON.
WE CAN OBSERVE IT VERY CLEARLY AND ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS IS
BECAUSE OF FEEDBACKS.
ONE OF THE LARGEST FEEDBACKS CAUSING THIS POLAR
AMPLIFICATION IS THE ICE ALBEDO FEEDBACK.
SO THIS HAPPENS BECAUSE ICE IS REFLECTIVE AND THE GROUND OR
WATER THAT UNDERLIES THE ICE IS NOT.
SO THE SAME REASON WHEN YOU GO OUTSIDE ON A SUNNY DAY IN THE
SUMMER WITH A DARK T-SHIRT ON AND YOU ARE WARMER THAN IF YOU
HAD A LIGHT T-SHIRT ON, THE SAME THING IS HAPPENING HERE.
SO IMAGINE YOU HAD SOME SEA ICE AND YOU STARTED MELTING IT
BECAUSE IT'S A LITTLE BIT WARMER.
WELL, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THE DARKER OCEAN FROM BELOW THAT
REDUCES ITS ALBEDO, WHICH IS THE REFLECTIVITY,
THAT MEANS YOU'RE OBSERVING MORE SUNLIGHT WHICH MEANS YOU
GET WARMER WHICH MEANS YOU MELT MORE ICE WHICH MEANS YOU GET
DARKER.
AND YOU CAN IMAGINE THIS FEEDBACK JUST KEEP GOING WHEN
YOU'RE GETTING DARKER AND WARMER, DARKER AND WARMER,
AND THAT IS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S CAUSING POLAR
AMPLIFICATIONS BOTH BECAUSE OF SEA ICE LOSS BUT ALSO BECAUSE
OF SNOW LOSS OVER LANDED AREAS.
AND WE CAN SEE THAT USING SATELLITE AND OTHER DATA.
HERE IS A NASA DATA SHOWING TEMPERATURE KNOWLEDGE FROM 1880
THROUGH 2005 AND WHAT IT'S CLEARLY SHOWING HERE IS POLAR
AMPLIFICATION.
IT'S VERY EASY TO SEE THAT THE POLES, BOTH POLES,
ARE WARMING MORE THAN THE MID-LATITUDES.
AND THAT'S HAPPENING BOTH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WITH THE SEA
ICE AS WELL AS OVER LAND AREAS.
NOW I WOULD POINT OUT THAT ONE DEGREE MIGHT NOT SEEM LIKE VERY
MUCH, BUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAST INTERGLACIAL
AND THE PRESENT DAY IS ONLY ABOUT TWO DEGREES TO FIVE
DEGREES CENTIGRADE AND YET THERE WAS A LOT OF SEA LEVEL
CHANGE BETWEEN THOSE TWO PERIODS.
SO A FEW DEGREES CAN BE IMPORTANT.
THE THIRD REASON WE'RE INTERESTED IN THE POLES IS
BECAUSE WE'RE HAVING CHANGES IN THE LAND ICE OR WE'RE HAVING
MELTING OF THIS ICE THAT WE DISCUSSED EARLIER.
AND WE HAVE FOUR DIFFERENT LINES OF EVIDENCE FOR THIS
LOSS.
THE FIRST IS THAT WE HAVE MORE DAYS OF SURFACE MELT,
SO WE CAN USE SATELLITES TO MEASURE WHEN THERE'S LIQUID
WATER ON TOP OF THE ICE SHEETS.
AND SO WHEN THERE'S LIQUID WATER THAT MEANS THAT WE'RE
MELTING THE ICE AND WE CAN SEE THAT THE MELTWATER IS BRINGING
MORE DAYS OF MELTWATER AND IS ALSO GETTING HIGHER UP ON THE
ICE SHELF FROM GOING BACK TO THE 70'S TO PRESENT DAY.
AND SO THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE WHEN WATER ON THE
SURFACE MELTS IT FORMS INTO THESE VERY BEAUTIFUL AQUAMARINE
PONDS, BUT THESE PONDS ACTUALLY CAN CAUSE DEVASTATING EFFECTS
ON THE ICE SHEET.
SO IN THIS IMAGE, TAKEN BY MARGIE AS WELL,
YOU CAN SEE -- IN THE TOP YOU CAN SEE A LITTLE RIVER FLOWING
INTO THE MELT POND AND THEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LEFT MELT
POND IS A DARK SPOT AND THAT IS POTENTIALLY ONE OF THESE
MOONSOM WHICH ARE THESE CONDUITS DOWN INTO -- THAT GO
FROM THE SURFACE OF THE ICE SHEET DOWN TO THE BASE.
SO IF YOU TAKE THIS WATER FROM THE SURFACE AND PUT IT AT THE
BASE OF THE ICE, IT LUBRICATES THE BASE OF THE ICE.
THAT MAKES THE ICE GO FASTER.
WHEN THE ICE GOES FASTER, IT'S ALL FALLING OUT INTO THE OCEAN.
SO WHAT THIS MEANS IS WE FOUND A LINK BETWEEN THE SURFACE OF
THE ICE SHEET AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE WE CAN PUSH INTO THE OCEAN.
SO THAT IS CAUSING MORE ICE TO BE LOST.
THE OCEAN, WHICH IS WHERE IT MELTS AND CAUSES SEA LEVEL
RISE.
SO THE SECOND LINE OF EVIDENCE RELATING TO WHAT I JUST SAID,
THE ICE IS SPEEDING UP.
SO WE CAN USE SATELLITES TO MEASURE THE VELOCITY OF ICE;
AND SO GLACIERS ARE ACCELERATING,
BOTH IN GREENLAND AND ANTARCTICA.
AND IN GREENLAND THE FASTEST MOVING GLACIER IS JAKOBSHAVN,
OR ILULISSAT, GLACIER AND IT MOVES A HUNDRED AND 13 FEET PER
DAY, WHICH IS CONTRARY TO WHAT WE THINK OF GLACIERS MOVING
VERY SLOW.
Y'ALL USE THE TERM GLACIER PACE, BUT THIS IS VERY FAST.
YOU CAN IMAGINE SETTING UP CAMP NEXT TO THIS GLACIER AND YOU
WAKE UP THE NEXT DAY AND IS FURTHER 50 FEET FURTHER AWAY.
SO IT'S REALLY MOVING FAST, AND THE CONCERN -- IF YOU SEE ON
THE RIGHT --THERE'S AN ARROW POINTING TO WHERE JAKOBSHAVN
IS, IS IT THAT LEAVES THIS DEEP INLAND BASIN IN GREENLAND WHICH
MEANS IS VERY SENSITIVE TO CHANGE.
SO THIS IS AN AREA THAT WERE STUDYING VERY CLOSELY.
HERE IS A PICTURE OF MYSELF AND MARGIE AND SOME COLLEAGUES
DOING SOME WORK NEAR GREENLAND.
THIS IS NEAR THE TOWN OF ILULISSAT AND THESE ARE THE
ICEBERGS HERE FLOWING OUT OF FJORD.
WE ARE STILL ABOUT 100 KILOMETERS AWAY FROM THE
TERMINUS ITSELF, BUT THESE ARE GIANT ICEBERGS 80 FEET ABOVE
THE WATER AND JUST LIKE HUNDREDS OF FEET BELOW.
SOME OF THEM GROUNDED AND IT'S JUST REALLY A LOT OF ICE BEING
THROWN OUT INTO THE OCEAN HERE.
THE THIRD LINE OF EVIDENCE IS THAT THE ICE SHEETS ARE
THINNING.
SO AS THIS PROCESS IS HAPPENING,
WE'RE LOSING ICE FURTHER INLAND.
SO AS WE LOSE THE ICE FURTHER INLAND IT HAS TO DEFLATE,
THE SURFACE OF THE ICE HAS TO GO DOWN.
AND SO WE CAN MEASURE THIS FROM SATELLITES.
SO THIS FIGURE HERE, FROM PRITCHARD 2012,
SHOWS THINNING FROM THE MID, EARLY 2000'S.
AND SO GREENLAND ON THE LEFT, THE RED COLORS SHOW SURFACE
LOWERING, SO THESE ARE PLACES WHERE ICE IS MELTING.
IN GREENLAND THERE ACTUALLY IS SOME SURFACE RISING OR
ELEVATING IN THE CENTRAL OF THE ICE SHEET AND THAT'S FROM
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL, BUT AROUND THE EDGES WE SEE
VERY LARGE DECREASING IN ELEVATION.
THIS IS THE THINNING AT THE MARGINS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE GLACIERS SPEEDING UP AND CONTRIBUTING ICEBERGS TO THE
OCEANS.
IN ANTARTICA YOU SEE A SIMILAR THING ALTHOUGH IT'S A LITTLE
MORE REGIONAL.
WE ALSO HAVE THIS BIG DATA GAP FROM THESE SATELLITES IN THE
INTERIOR IN EAST ANTARCTICA, WE SEE ESPECIALLY IN THE AMUNDSEN
SEA SECTOR NEAR THE ASE SIGN HERE IN WEST ANTARCTICA.
THERE IS A LARGE SURFACE THINNING IN THE PINE ISLAND AND
THWAITES GLACIERS.
THIS IS ONE OF THE AREAS WE'RE LOSING THE MOST AMOUNT OF MASS,
EVEN THOUGH IN SOME AREAS WE HAVE SOME POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
ELEVATION CHANGES.
NOW THE FOURTH LINE OF EVIDENCE SORT OF INTEGRATES ALL OF THEM
BUT IS INDEPENDENT OF ANY OF THE OTHERS.
AND THIS IS LOSING ICE MASS AND WE CAN MEASURE IT DIRECTLY
USING GREAT SATELLITES.
THESE SATELLITES MEASURE GRAVITY CHANGES,
AND SO YOU'RE DIRECTLY MEASURING CHANGES IN MASS.
SO FOR GREENLAND IN THE UPPER LEFT,
WE SEE RED AREAS ARE PLACES THAT ARE LOSING MASS, ICE MASS.
AND ON THE RIGHT IS A TIME SERIES FOR ALL OF GREENLAND,
AND WE SEE THIS GENERAL CHANGE FROM 2003 ONWARDS DECREASING
ICE MASS FOR ALL OF GREENLAND.
WHAT'S REALLY INTERESTING HERE IS YOU CAN SEE THE SEASONAL
CYCLE.
SO AS THE MASS SECTION GOES UP A LITTLE BIT WHEN INCREASE IN
SNOWFALL THEN IT GOES DOWN AGAIN.
OVERALL THE TREND IS DOWN.
IN ANTARTICA THE STORY IS SIMILAR,
BUT THERE'S A LITTLE MORE NUANCE LIKE WE SAW ON THE
SURFACE ELEVATION CHANGE IN THAT THE AMAZON SEA SECTOR IS
BRIGHT RED.
SO WE ARE LOSING A LOT OF MASS THERE QUICKLY,
BUT THERE'S SOME AREAS, PARTICULARLY AROUND ZERO
DEGREES TO 45 DEGREES LONGITUDE,
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY GAINING MASS AND THAT'S AGAIN DUE TO CHANGES
IN SNOWFALL.
BUT INTEGRATED AS A WHOLE, THE TIME SERIES ON THE RIGHT SHOWS
A DECREASE IN MASS FROM THE SAME TIME PERIOD TO PRESENT.
IN ANTARTICA WE SEE THAT THE MASS CHANGE IS ACCELERATING.
AND OVER ALL THESE GIVE YOU ABOUT 100 TO 200 GIGATONS PER
YEAR CHANGE IN ICE MASS.
SO, BRUCE, WE HAVE A SECOND QUESTION HERE.
SO YOU CAN BRING UP QUESTION NUMBER TWO.
>>BRUCE: OKAY, EVERYONE.
FEEL FREE TO ANSWER THAT DIRECTLY ON YOUR SCREEN.
OKAY, VOTES ARE STILL COMING IN.
WE'LL KEEP IT UP FOR JUST ANOTHER MOMENT OR SO.
OKAY, THAT LOOKS GREAT.
AND HERE ARE THE RESULTS.
>>DR.
PORTER: OKAY.
GREAT, WE HAVE A LOT OF GOOD ANSWERS HERE.
SO, RIGHT, WARMING OF THE OCEANS,
MELTING OF MOUNTAIN GLACIERS, AND MELTING OF THE ICE SHEETS
ARE THE THREE THAT DO HAVE A DIRECT EFFECT ON GLOBAL MEAN
SEA LEVEL.
AND MOST OF YOU GOT IT RIGHT THAT THE MELTING OF THE ARCTIC
SEA ICE DOES NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL.
IT CAN AFFECT SEA LEVEL IN OTHER WAYS, INDIRECTLY,
BUT NOT DIRECTLY; IT'S ALREADY FLOATING.
AND ALMOST ALL OF YOU GOT IT RIGHT,
THE STORM SURGES AND TIDES, ALTHOUGH HAVING AN IMPORTANT
LOCAL AFFECT OR TEMPORAL AFFECT,
GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL IS NOT AFFECTED BY THESE.
OKAY, SO NOW WERE GOING TO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT WE DO
HERE AT LAMONT-DOHERTY.
SO WE ARE MEMBERS OF THE POLAR GEOPHYSICS GROUP AND WE MEASURE
ICE.
SO WE ARE STUDYING BOTH THE ICE SHEETS BUT ALSO ICE-OCEAN
INTERACTIONS.
SO HERE IS JUST A NICE PICTURE WE TOOK THIS PAST SEASON FLYING
OVER THE EDGE OF THE ROSS ICE SHELF,
GIVING YOU AN IDEA WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO STUDY HERE.
SO FOR ICE-OCEAN INTERACTIONS, AS MENTIONED,
MARGIE AND I WENT TO GREENLAND A FEW SUMMERS AGO,
AND ONE OF THE REASONS WE'RE INTERESTED IN GREENLAND AND
OCEANOGRAPHY AROUND GREENLAND IS THAT THE OCEANS ARE WARMING
AND SO THIS IS A SYNTHESIS OF OBSERVATIONS THAT SHOW
TEMPERATURE CHANGE BETWEEN 1992 AND 2009 AT 250 METERS DEPTH,
WATER DEPTH.
SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THAT THERE IS A WARMING DOWN BELOW.
BUT THERE'S VERY FEW OBSERVATIONS IN SOME OF THE
PLACES AROUND GREENLAND.
AND SO WE ARE TRYING TO BUILD A PARTNERSHIP WITH THE
GREENLANDIC FISHERMEN TO TAKE THESE OBSERVATIONS FOR US AND
ALSO INTEGRATE THE DATA THAT WE TAKE IN TO WAYS THEY CAN
BENEFIT THEIR LIVES THROUGH BETTER FISHING AND OTHER
METHODS.
SO THIS IS ONE WAY OF STUDYING HOW THE ICE AND THE OCEANS ARE
INTERACTING.
THE OTHER WAY -- THE OTHER TOOLS WE USE ARE AIRCRAFT.
AND SO ON THE LEFT IS A TWIN OTTER.
THIS SEATS A DOZEN OR SO PEOPLE.
WHAT WE DO IS WE RIP OUT ALL THE SEATS AND REPLACE IT WITH
SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS.
AND SO THE SUITE OF INSTRUMENTS WE USE INCLUDE A MAGNETOMETER,
ICE-PENETRATING RADAR, A LASER RANGE-FINDING UNIT.
WE HAVE THERMAL AND VISIBLE CAMERAS,
AS WELL AS A GRAVITY METER.
WE ALSO WORK WITH NASA OPERATION ICEBRIDGE,
WHICH SOMETIMES USES AIRCRAFT LIKE THE P3 ORION, AND AGAIN,
VERY SIMILAR SUITE OF NSTRUMENTS BUT WITH FULL TEAMS
OF SCIENTISTS IN THE PLANE.
AND MORE RECENTLY, ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT,
WE HAVE THE ICEPOD.
AND THIS IS A SIMILAR SUITE OF INSTRUMENTS,
BUT NOW IT'S ALL COMPRESSED INTO THIS POD THAT ATTACHES TO
THE REAR PARATROOPER DOOR OF AN LC130.
IT'S FLOWN BY THE NEW YORK AIR NATIONAL GUARD.
WHAT'S REALLY COOL ABOUT THIS IS THAT IT'S ALL THE SAME
INSTRUMENTS, BUT IT'S IN THIS POD THAT IS BOTH PORTABLE AND
FLEXIBLE.
AND SO IT'S ABLE TO BE MOVED FROM AIRCRAFT TO AIRCRAFT VERY
EASILY AND FLOWN ON FLIGHTS OF OPPORTUNITY.
AND SOMETHING WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT NOW ARE ICE SHELVES.
THAT'S BECAUSE THAT'S OUR MOST RECENT SCIENTIFIC CAMPAIGN.
AND THESE ARE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE THIS LAND ICE THAT'S
FLOWING FROM THE INTERIOR TO THE OCEANS.
BUT AS THEY REACH THE OCEANS IT BECOMES A FLOAT,
JUST LIKE SEA ICE.
BUT BECAUSE IT'S THICK GLACIAL ICE THAT COALESCES AND LEAVES
VERY THICK FLOATING ICE SHELVES.
NOW DIFFERENT THAN SEA ICE, ICE SHELVES ARE ON AVERAGE 400
METERS THICK.
SO THEY ARE ABOUT A THOUSAND METERS TO 200 METERS THICK,
SO IS A LOT OF ICE AND IT'S ALL FLOATING.
BUT AGAIN, BECAUSE THESE ARE FLOATING,
THEY DON'T HAVE A DIRECT CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL WHEN
THEY GO, BUT THEY DO, THEY WILL ACT AS BUTTRESSES TO INLAND
ICE.
SOME OF YOU MAY REMEMBER IN 2002 THERE WAS A COLLAPSE OF
THE LARSEN D ICE SHELF, WHICH HERE.
YOU CAN SEE IN THE UPPER LEFT, THERE'S LARSEN C.
LARSO B AND A WERE JUST NORTH OF IT ALONG THE PENINSULA.
WE LOST LARSEN B IN 2002 OVER THE COURSE OF SIX WEEKS.
THIS WAS AN ICE SHELF THE SIZE OF RHODE ISLAND AND VERY
QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED.
AND IT WAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SURFACE MELT, OCEAN WARMING,
AND CREVASSING.
SO I'M GONNA STEP THROUGH JUST A SEQUENCE OF IMAGES HERE THAT
SHOW THIS COLLAPSE, AND YOU CAN SEE THESE VERY LARGE ICEBERGS
THAT BROKE OFF AND FLOATED AWAY.
THIS IS ONE OF THE WAYS WE'RE WORRIED ABOUT ICE SHELVES AND
THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISES THROUGH CATASTROPHIC
COLLAPSE OF THESE ICE SHELVES.
IT HAPPENED IN MATTER OF SIX WEEKS.
THE MPORTANT THING HERE IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE ICE SHELVES
THEMSELVES DON'T CONTRIBUTE, AFTER THEY BREAK AWAY,
THE GLACIERS THAT FEED THEM SPEED UP.
AND SO IT'S ALMOST A -- IT ACTS AS A BUTTRESS,
THE ICE BEHIND IT.
AND ONCE YOU LOSE IT, THE ICE IS LEFT TO FLOW OUT MORE
FREELY.
SO THAT LEADS US TO OUR CURRENT PROJECT AT LAMONT.
USING THE ICE POD, WHICH IS CALLED ROSETTA,
THAT'S TO UNDERSTAND THE ROSS ICE SHELF.
AND SO IT'S THE EXTREMELY LARGE ICE SHELF HERE, CIRCLED IN RED,
IT'S ABOUT THE SIZE OF TEXAS.
YOU CAN SEE IT KIND OF -- IT'S THE CONFLUENCE OF ICE FROM EAST
ANTARCTICA AND WEST ANTARCTICA.
AND SO WE ARE INTERESTED IN -- AGAIN,
CURRENTLY IT'S FAIRLY STABLE, BUT WE'RE WORRIED IF THIS WERE
TO BREAK OFF, WHAT IMPACT WILL IT HAVE ON INLAND ICE.
AND HERE'S A PICTURE OF THE FRONT OF THE ICE SHELF TO JUST
GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF BIG IT IS.
IT'S SUCH A LARGE AREA THAT WE NEED TO USE THESE AIRCRAFT TO
FLY IT SEVERAL YEARS TO REALLY UNDERSTAND THE ICE DYNAMICS AND
THE UNDERLYING BEDROCK.
SO WE ARE GOING TO QUICKLY GO AGAIN WITH THE THIRD QUESTION
HERE.
>>BRUCE: FEEL FREE TO BEGIN PUTTING YOUR ANSWERS IN, FOLKS.
OKAY, JUST ANOTHER SECOND.
ALL RIGHT.
>>DR.
PORTER: THE ANSWERS ARE IN.
SO WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING ARE TRUE ABOUT ICE SHELVES?
THEY ARE FLOATING ICE WITH NO CONNECTION TO SEA LEVEL;
SO THAT IS TRUE.
THEY DON'T HAVE ANY CONNECTION TO SEA LEVEL DIRECTLY.
REMEMBER THEY WILL IMPACT THE ICE SHELF BEHIND IT WHICH MOST
OF YOU ANSWERED CORRECTLY DOWN THERE IN THE PURPLE.
THEY ARE CRITICAL FOR BUTTRESSING THE ICE SHELF.
THEY ARE ICE THAT CUT THE LAND MAKING NATURAL SHELVES;
THAT IS NOT THE CASE.
SO THEY ARE -- THEY HAVEN'T CUT THE LAND,
AND THEY ARE JUST FLOATING.
SEVERAL HAVE ALREADY COLLAPSED; THAT'S TRUE AS WE LEARNED FROM
LARSEN ICE SHELF, AS WELL AS A FEW OTHERS.
AND THEY ARE BEING MELTED FROM BELOW FROM WARMING OCEAN WATER;
ALSO CORRECT.
GOOD JOB.
SO THIS IS A PICTURE OF MYSELF IN FRONT OF THE AIRCRAFT WE
USE.
WE HAD THE SAME AIRCRAFT THE WHOLE TIME.
WE WERE PRETTY LUCKY, ONLY ONE BREAKDOWN.
AND THIS IS MOUNT EREBUS IN THE BACKGROUND.
THIS IS WHERE WE SPENT SIX WEEKS THIS PAST OCTOBER AND
NOVEMBER.
AND WE COMPLETED HALF OF OUR FLIGHTS,
AND SO WERE GOING TO BE GOING BACK AGAIN NEXT AUSTRAL SUMMER,
WHICH IS WINTER UP HERE.
AND YOU CAN SEE A PICTURE OF THE ICE POD DOWN THERE IN THE
LEFT.
AND SO WE'RE REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS NEW DATA;
IT'S REALLY GOING TO BE REVOLUTIONARY.
IT WILL GIVE US NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE STABILITY OF THE ROSS
ICE SHELF AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR POTENTIAL SEA LEVEL RISE.
SO WE HAVE ANOTHER QUICK QUESTION HERE,
WHICH IS THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON TO FOCUS ON THE POLES IS
THEIR CONNECTION TO GLOBAL SEA LEVEL.
SO, BRUCE, IF YOU CAN BRING IN QUESTION NUMBER FOUR.
>>BRUCE: OKAY.
VOTE AWAY.
OKAY.
WE JUST GOT ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF EVERYONE VOTING.
OKAY.
WHY DON'T WE CLOSE IT UP AND WE'LL SEE WHAT THE ANSWER IS.
>>DAVE: OKAY.
SO A LOT OF YOU GOT IT CORRECTLY, 48 PERCENT THERE.
A GRAIN OF RICE IS USED AS A SCALE FOR HOW MUCH SEA LEVEL
RISE.
SO ALL THESE OTHER ANSWERS ARE SORT OF CORRECT IN THAT WE DO
USE OCEAN SENTIMENT CORE FORAMS AS PROXIES FOR SEA LEVEL RISE.
AND WE USE SEED FROM GREENLAND LAKES TO TIME ICE SHEET
RETREAT, BUT WHAT WE ARE SHOWING YOU HERE IS ONE GRAIN
OF RICE.
SO THAT IS ONE MILLIMETER PER YEAR.
ONE GRAIN OF RICE IS APPROXIMATELY ONE MILLIMETER
AND, SO, IN GENERAL, THOUGH WE HAVE ABOUT THREE MILLIMETERS OF
SEA LEVEL RISE PER YEAR.
AND SO WHEN YOU THINK OF IT, THIS IS A GREAT VISUAL.
WHEN YOU THINK OF HOW MUCH IT GROWS EVERY YEAR,
THREE GRAINS OF RICE.
AND, OF COURSE, ONE YEAR, THAT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THAT MUCH,
BUT WITHIN OUR LIFETIMES WITHIN YOUR STUDENTS' LIFETIMES WE
HAVE THREE GRAINS OF RICE PER YEAR ADDS UP TO A LOT.
AND SO THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT TO GO HOME,
AND I THINK IT'S A GREAT VISUALIZATION.
THIS IS THAT RATE OF THREE MILLIMETERS PER YEAR WAS
CONFIRMED BY TIME GAUGES, AND SO HERE'S A GRAPHIC SHOWING SEA
LEVEL CHANGE FROM TIME GAUGES AROUND THE GLOBE.
AND SO THIS SHOWS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ARROW IS ITS SIZE,
AS WELL AS THE COLOR.
YOU CAN SEE, GENERALLY, WE'RE GOING UP HERE.
THERE'S A PICTURE ON THE UPPER RIGHT OF THE TIME GAUGES HERE
IN NEW YORK CITY AT THE BATTERY.
WE CAN LOOK AT DATA FROM EACH OF THESE TIME GAUGES AND WE CAN
GET A NICE TIME SERIES.
SO IT'S DIFFERENT FOR DIFFERENT GAUGES,
BUT HERE THE BATTERY WE HAVE ONE GOING BACK TO THE
MID-1800S.
AND SO YOU CAN SEE THIS NICE INCREASE HERE,
AND THAT'S VERY EASY TO SEE.
YOU SEE ENTERING OF VARIABILITY,
ALL THE LITTLE SQUIGGLES, BUT LET'S SAY IF WE START FROM THE
PAST 100 YEARS, WHICH IS A BLUE LINE HERE,
STARTING FROM ABOUT 1915 WE CAN SEE THAT DIFFERENCE THERE
BETWEEN PRESENT DAY AND 1910.
AND THAT IS WHERE WE GET OUR .
3 METERS PER YEAR, PER HUNDRED YEARS, WHICH IS ABOUT .
93 FEET.
AND THIS IS A LARGE CHANGE.
IT'S SOMETHING THAT IS VERY NOTICEABLE IN OUR LIFETIMES.
WE GO DOWN TO THE BATTERY AND WE CAN SEE THIS.
AND SO IT'S HAPPENING AND IT'S -- WE NEED TO CONSIDER IT.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHERE, FOR HERE IN NEW YORK,
WHERE WE BUILT ALL THESE BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE WATER
WAS NOT AT PRESENT DAY SEA LEVEL.
IT WAS WAY BACK HERE IN THE MID-1800S.
>>BRUCE: DAVE, CAN I ASK YOU TO GO BACK TO THE SLIDE FOR A
MOMENT?
A FEW PEOPLE HAVE ASKED WHAT THE ZERO LINE IS.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN THAT?
>>DAVE: I DO NOT KNOW WHAT THE ZERO LINE IS,
BUT BECAUSE THIS IS A -- WE DID NOT GENERATE THIS GRAPHIC
ITSELF, BUT BECAUSE THIS IS IN ANOMALIES,
IT DOESN'T REALLY MEAN TOO MUCH IF THE ZERO IS DOWN THERE AT
THE BOTTOM.
SO WHAT WE'RE REALLY LOOKING AT IS THE MAGNITUDE OF CHANGE OVER
THE COURSE OF THIS PERIOD.
SO REALLY IF YOU TOOK THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ANY TWO
PERIODS HERE AND WHAT WE WANT IS A RATE.
SO, YES, IT'S PROBABLY THE AVERAGE BETWEEN THE LAST 30
YEARS IS THE STANDARD WHAT WE CALCULATE A CLIMATIC MEAN IS A
30-YEAR AVERAGE.
SO MY GUESS IS THAT IT WOULD BE THE PAST 30 YEARS FROM PRESENT
DAY.
BUT I'M NOT AN EXPERT SO I'M NOT SURE.
BUT WHAT REALLY MATTERS HERE IS THE RATE OF CHANGE AND THE
RELATIVE DIFFERENCE FROM TODAY.
THE MESSAGE DOES NOT CHANGE.
>>BRUCE: THANKS.
>>DAVE: SO THAT WAS SORT OF THE PRESENT DAY,
THE RECENT PAST LOOK AT SEA LEVEL RISE,
BUT WE HAVE PROJECTIONS, OF COURSE,
AND SO THE IPCCAR5 HAS PUT OUT THEIR PROJECTIONS.
THESE ARE FOR DIFFERENT EMISSION SCENARIOS AND THESE
USE A COMBINATION OF CLIMATE MODELS AND CLIMATE PROXY PALEO
DATA.
AND WE SEE THE PAST HERE, THE PURPLE SQUIGGLY LINE,
AND THEN THE PRESENT DAY WITH A BUNCH OF RECONSTRUCTIONS GOING
UP TO 2010.
AND THEN TWO PROJECTIONS, RED IS THE HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO
AND THAT GIVES US THREE FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE,
WITH A RANGE OF 2 TO 5, ABOUT PLUS OR MINUS ONE FEET.
IN THE LOW EMISSIONS, IT'S TWO FEET WITH THE SAME PLUS OR
MINUS, ONE FEET.
SO THIS IS SEA LEVEL CHANGE, GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL CHANGE BY
2100.
OF COURSE, THE NATURAL QUESTION IS WHAT THE SOURCE OF THIS
INCREASE -- THIS THREE TO 3 TO 5 FEET OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE.
SO ONE OF THE SOURCES IS OCEAN WARMING,
SO WE TURN THIS THERMAL EXPANSION.
SO AS THE OCEAN WARMS, IT EXPANDS JUST AS AIR IN A HOT
AIR BALLOON EXPANDS WHEN YOU WARM IT UP.
SO MARGIE AND I, HERE ON THE ICE SHEET, ARE HERE FOR SCALE,
AND SO THE GRAPH SHOWS A GIVEN LEVEL OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE PER
DEGREE CELSIUS.
AND SO WE CAN SEE IF WE THINK OF COP,
21 HERE AT ONE AND A HALF OR TWO DEGREES CELSIUS WE EXPECT
MAYBE ONE METER OF SEA LEVEL RISE FROM THAT,
BUT WHAT IS IMPORTANT HERE IS THE SLOPE WHICH IS ABOUT HALF A
METER OF SEA LEVEL RISE PER DEGREE KELVIN OF WARMING.
AGAIN, IT KEEPS GOING UP, EVEN PAST 4 DEGREES C.
SO THERE'S POTENTIAL, A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR SEA LEVEL RISE.
THE MOUNTAIN GLACIERS, AGAIN, WHERE TO SCALE HERE YOU CAN SEE
IT TAPERS OFF AT ABOUT AND A HALF A METER.
AND SO WE GET A BIG CHANGE IN SEA LEVEL EARLY ON FROM
MOUNTAIN GLACIERS, BUT THERE'S NOT THAT MUCH ICE OVERALL,
SO WE HAVE A TAPERING OFF OF THE CHANGE.
FOR GREENLAND, IT IS NOT TOO SENSITIVE TO SMALL TEMPERATURE
CHANGES, ACCORDING TO LEVERMANN'S PAPER IN 2015.
BUT AT ABOUT A DEGREE AND A HALF,
THERE IS A LARGE JUMP IN THE SENSITIVITY OF THE ICE SHEET.
AND SO THIS IS A -- THINK OF IT AS A THRESHOLD WHERE
POTENTIALLY WE'RE THERE AT ABOUT A METER OF SEA LEVEL --
WHICH IS STILL A LOT -- BUT BETWEEN ONE AND TWO DEGREES
SOMEWHERE -- ACCORDING TO THEIR STUDY -- THEY SEE ALL THIS BIG
JUMP UP TO SIX METERS OF SEA LEVEL WHICH IS A LOT OF GLOBAL
MEAN SEA LEVEL.
SIX METERS IS FAR OUT PACES THAT THREE TO FIVE FEET THAT
THE IPTC SAYS.
AND THEN FOR ANTARCTICA WE SEE A SIMILAR SENSITIVITY.
BUT THE DIFFERENCE HERE, ONE, THERE IS NO THRESHOLD,
BUT THE OTHER IS THAT THE LINE KEEPS GOING.
SO IF YOU LOOK BACK AT GREENLAND IT SORT OF TAPERS OFF
AGAIN AS WE LOSE ALL THAT ICE.
ANTARCTICA HAS SO MUCH MORE ICE THAT IT JUST KEEPS GOING UP.
SO AGAIN, IF YOU LOOK HERE AT ONE AND A HALF TO TWO DEGREES
CELSIUS, YOU'RE COMING IN AT TWO TO THREE YEARS OF SEA LEVEL
RISE, BUT IT CONTINUES TO GO UP.
AND SO THE SLOPE HERE IS 1.2 YEARS PER DEGREE CELSIUS.
AND SO THAT BRINGS US TO THE APP AND WHY THE IMPETUS FOR
MAKING THIS APP AND IT WAS CREATED TO HELP PEOPLE EXPLORE
THE DRIVERS, EVIDENCE, AND IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE.
SO THIS IS, YOU KNOW, DRIVEN HOME BY THE FACT THERE'S SO
MUCH SEA LEVEL RISE POTENTIAL IN THESE TWO ICE SHEETS.
AND WE'RE JUST BEGINNING TO UNDERSTAND HOW SENSITIVE THEY
ARE WITH SOME NEW RECENT STUDIES SAYING MAYBE THEY ARE
MORE SENSITIVE THAN WE THOUGHT.
SO THIS SEA LEVEL APP, POLAR EXPLORER,
REALLY HELPS US UNDERSTAND THE CONNECTION,
THE DRIVERS OF THIS SEAL WILL CHANGE AS WELL AS A CONNECTIONS
TO THE POLAR ICE SHEETS.
AND SO THAT CONCLUDES MY SECTION ON THE SCIENCE.
AND I WOULD LIKE TO PASS IT OVER TO MARGIE TURRIN WHO WILL
DISCUSS THE APP AND ALL THE GREAT THINGS WE HAVE IN IT.
THANK YOU.
>>BRUCE: WE WILL BE ANSWERING SOME QUESTIONS AT THE END.
AND WE ALSO HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL ANNOUNCEMENTS AND
SOME ADDITIONAL EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES FOR YOU AFTER
MARGIE'S DONE WITH HER PRESENTATION.
>>MARGIE: OKAY.
GREAT.
IS MY SCREEN UP?
>>BRUCE: IT LOOKS GOOD, MARGIE.
>>MARGIE: OKAY.
GREAT.
THANK YOU.
SO, THANK YOU, DAVE, FOR THAT GREAT BACKGROUND ON WHY WE PUT
TOGETHER THE POLAR EXPLORER: SEA LEVEL.
THIS IS A FREE APP THAT'S AVAILABLE NOW FOR DOWNLOAD FROM
THE APP STORE.
I'M GOING TO SPEND ABOUT FOUR SLIDES TELLING YOU A LITTLE BIT
ABOUT HOW WE CRAFTED IT, AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO REALLY DIVE
RIGHT INTO IT AND SHOW YOU SOME OF THE REALLY FUN FEATURES IN
IT.
SO IN TERMS OF -- I'M HAVING TROUBLE MAKING MY -- THERE WE
GO.
ALL RIGHT.
SO WHAT CHALLENGES ARE THERE TO USING DATA IN TEACHING SCIENCE?
AND I AM SURE THAT THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE ACTUALLY TEACHING IN
THE CLASSROOM ARE VERY, VERY FAMILIAR WITH THIS UP FRONT.
BUT THESE ARE SOME OF THE REASONS THAT MOTIVATED US TO
DEVELOP THIS APP.
THERE'S JUST SO MUCH DATA OUT THERE AND SO MANY DIFFERENT
TYPES.
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO SELECT IF YOU WANTED TO USE
OCEAN DATA OR ATMOSPHERIC DATA; DO WE FOCUS ON CHANGES IN THE
ICE SHEETS?
YOU KNOW ALL OF THESE HAVE THEIR SPECIAL QUALITIES,
BUT WE REALLY WANTED TO INTEGRATE THEM AND REALLY TAKE
A LOOK AT THE WHOLE SYSTEM.
AND SO THAT WAS REALLY THE MAIN MOTIVATOR OR DRIVER.
WE KNOW THAT TIME IS VERY LIMITED FOR A TEACHER.
THEY HAVE AN AWFUL LOT TO TRY AND DEAL WITH ALREADY,
SO TRYING TO LOCATE DATA AND BUILD ACTIVITIES AROUND IT CAN
BE EXTREMELY TIME-CONSUMING.
SO WE WANTED TO TAKE THAT PIECE OUT OF YOUR NEEDS.
AND THEN JUST THERE'S SO MANY DATA SETS THAT WHEN YOU JUST
HAND THEM THE STUDENTS, HOW DO YOU REALLY MAKE THEM
UNDERSTANDABLE?
SO WE WANTED TO GENERATE SOME SCAFFOLDING AROUND THEM SO THAT
YOU DIDN'T REALLY NEED TO KNOW A LOT ABOUT THE DIFFERENT DATA
SETS THAT ALL THAT SCAFFOLDING WAS THERE TO REALLY HELP YOU
GUIDE YOU THROUGH IT.
SO WHAT IS THE ACTUAL APP ITSELF?
WHAT IS POLAR EXPLORER: SEA LEVEL?
IT WAS DEVELOPED THROUGH ONE OF THE POLAR CLIMATE CHANGE
EDUCATION PARTNERSHIP GRANTS.
AND I HAVE NSF DOWN HERE, BUT IT WAS REALLY A TRI-AGENCY
GRANT SO IT WAS A NOAA, NASA, NSF GROUP THAT GOT TOGETHER AND
DECIDED TO FUND SOME WORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE EDUCATION.
AND AS PART OF THAT, WE DEVELOPED THIS APP AND DECIDED
THAT WE WOULD PUT TOGETHER KIND OF A GUIDED TOUR THROUGH ALL OF
THE DIFFERENT LAYERS OF SCIENCE THAT REALLY IMPACT SEA LEVEL
CHANGE.
AND TO DO THAT WE WANTED TO USE PUBLICLY AVAILABLE DATA,
DATA THAT HAD BEEN VETTED SO THAT IT WAS,
IT WAS BEYOND QUESTION IF YOU WANT TO THINK ABOUT IT THAT
WAY.
IT WASN'T JUST SOMETHING OUT OF A PAPER SOMEWHERE OR SOMETHING
OFF THE WEB.
THIS WAS VETTED DATA THAT WE COMPILED.
WE ORGANIZED INTO A SCAFFOLDED EXPLORATION.
SO WE REALLY BUILT SOME SUPPORTS AROUND IT SO THAT THE
USER WOULD NOT JUST BE FACED WITH A DATA VISUALIZATION BUT
THEY WOULD HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IT WAS
THEY WERE LOOKING AT.
AND THEN WE DECIDED TO ALSO BLEND SOCIAL SCIENCE IN WITH
THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE.
SO MOST OF THE APP IS PHYSICAL SCIENCE,
BUT WE HAVE A WHOLE SECTION THAT REALLY FRAMES AROUND WHO'S
VULNERABLE TO SOME OF THESE THINGS.
AND WE SHOW HOW THAT WORKS.
WE DECIDED ON AN APP FOR TWO MAIN REASONS: ONE,
LAMONT HAS A PARENT APP, IF YOU WANT TO THINK ABOUT IT THAT
WAY, THAT'S CALLED EARTH OBSERVER.
EARTH OBSERVER IS STRUCTURED MUCH THE SAME AS OURS IS IN
THAT IT'S DATA VISUALIZATIONS IN MAP FORMAT.
BUT THERE ISN'T ANY GUIDING STRUCTURE AROUND IT,
SO IT'S REALLY FOR SOMEBODY THAT WANTS TO GO IN AND REALLY
LOOK AT DATA.
IT'S A WONDERFUL TOOL, BUT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAVIGATE IF
YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO FRAME QUESTIONS.
AND THAT WAS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE FOUND WHEN WE DID SOME
FOCUS GROUPS, WAS THAT A GENERAL USER DOESN'T REALLY
KNOW HOW TO ASK QUESTIONS AROUND DATA.
AND SO WE DECIDED TO FRAME THE QUESTIONS FOR THE USER.
WE ALSO TOOK SOME WORK THAT WAS DONE BY A TEACHERS' COLLEGE PHD
STUDENT, SEGAL, AND HER WORK LOOKED AT HOW ACTUALLY
INTERACTING WITH VISUAL MEDIA CAN ENHANCE LEARNING AND
MOTIVATION, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU'RE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND
COMPLEX SYSTEMS.
AND WE ALL KNOW THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IS COMPLEX.
SO FOR THOSE TWO REASONS THE APP SEEMED LIKE THE RIGHT WAY
TO GO.
AND AGAIN, WE FRAMED IT AROUND A SERIES OF QUESTIONS.
THE APP ITSELF IS MAPS WHICH IS A VERY FAMILIAR KIND OF WAY OF
DELIVERING INFORMATION TO THE GENERAL USER.
WE ALL SEE MAPS WITH WEATHER MAPS.
WE SEE A VARIETY OF THINGS, SO USING A MAP AS A MEDIUM SEEMED
LOGICAL.
IT ADDRESSES SOME OF THE CLIMATE EDUCATION CHALLENGES,
SO WE KNOW THERE ARE SOME CHALLENGES OUT THERE.
THE FIRST ONE IS THE WHOLE IDEA;
SHOULD YOU BELIEVE IN CLIMATE CHANGE?
WE ARE REALLY DEALING WITH JUST EVIDENCE.
WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT BELIEFS OR NONBELIEFS.
WE'RE PUTTING EVIDENCE IN PEOPLE'S HANDS SO THAT THEY CAN
ACTUALLY INTERACT WITH IT.
AND AGAIN, THEY DON'T HAVE TO READ ABOUT IT OR HEAR IT,
IT'S INDEPENDENT LEARNING.
SO YOU ARE ACTUALLY GATHERING YOUR INSIGHTS AND CEMENTING
YOUR UNDERSTANDINGS BY NTERACTING WITH THE DATA
DIRECTLY AT YOUR FINGERTIPS.
WE ONLY USED REPUTABLE SCIENCE AGENCIES FOR OUR DATA SOURCES,
SO WE WORKED WITH NOAA.
WE WORKED WITH NASA.
WE WORKED WITH USGS TO ACTUALLY BRING THEIR DATA SETS INTO OUR
APP.
AND THEN ONE OF THE BIGGEST THINGS I THINK THAT IS A REAL
CHALLENGE IS THAT EARTH SCIENCE AND GEOSCIENCES ARE FRAMED
AROUND SYSTEMS THINKING THEY HAVE TEMPORAL VARIABILITY AND
SPATIAL VARIABILITY AND THAT CAN BE VERY DIFFICULT TO HELP
PEOPLE UNDERSTAND.
AND SO THE APP BECAUSE IT PULLS TOGETHER OCEANS, ATMOSPHERE,
GLACIERS, ALL THESE DIFFERENT COMPLEX SYSTEMS AND YOU CAN
NAVIGATE THROUGH THEM TOGETHER, IT REALLY OVERRIDES THAT WHOLE
PROBLEM WITH SYSTEMS-THINKING AND YOU CAN TRAVEL BACK IN
TIME.
YOU GET LOOK GET DIFFERENT VARIATIONS SPACIALLY,
SO IT REALLY MAKES ALL OF THIS READILY AVAILABLE TO THE USER.
AND THEN, THE APP ALSO ADDRESSES SOME OF THE
MISCONCEPTIONS THAT HAVE POPULATED AROUND CLIMATE CHANGE
AND SEA LEVEL RISE.
ONE DAVE MENTIONED ALREADY AND THAT IS THAT A FEW DEGREES
DOESN'T REALLY MATTER.
AS HE MENTIONED THE LAST INTERGLACIAL IN THE EEMIAN AND
IT WAS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND WE HAD 69 METERS MORE WATER
IN OUR OCEANS.
SO YOU CAN HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT.
THE IDEA THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS NORMAL: YES,
CLIMATE CHANGE IS NORMAL, BUT THIS CLIMATE CHANGE IS
ACCELERATED MUCH BEYOND PRIOR CLIMATE CHANGE,
AND THAT'S READILY EVIDENT IN THE APP.
THE IDEA THAT HUMANS ARE NOT PART OF THE PROBLEM: WE DON'T
GET INTO CO2, AND WE DON'T GET INTO HUMAN BEHAVIOR IN THAT
REALM.
BUT WE DO LOOK AT HOW HUMANS HAVE ALTERED THE BALANCE OF OUR
EARTH, SO MADE IT LESS RESILIENT BY THE AMOUNT OF
PAVING THAT THEY'VE DONE SO THE AMOUNT OF IMPERVIOUS SURFACE
THAT IS AVAILABLE OR PRESENT, THE AMOUNT OF TREES AND THINGS
THAT HAVE BEEN REMOVED HAVE MADE US MUCH LESS ABLE TO DEAL
WITH ISSUES LIKE FLOODING AND THAT'S IN ONE OF THE MAPS THAT
I'LL SHOW YOU IN A MOMENT.
AND THE FACT THAT HUMANS WILL ADAPT AND WE KNOW THAT HUMANS
WILL ADAPT, WE'RE AN ADAPTABLE SPECIES.
BUT THERE ARE PEOPLE AND THERE ARE AREAS THAT ARE SO
VULNERABLE THEY WON'T BE ABLE TO ADAPT;
THEY'LL HAVE TO BE RE-LOCATED.
SO THOSE COMMUNITIES ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE APP.
OKAY, SO WERE GOING TO DIVE INTO THE APP.
JUST ONE SLIDE TO KIND OF ORIENT YOU TO THE STRUCTURE OF
THE APP.
I MENTIONED IT'S QUESTION DRIVEN,
SO NUMBER ONE IS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE RIGHT OF YOUR SCREEN.
AND THAT IS AN OVERVIEW OF OUR QUESTION BANK,
OR OUR DIRECTORY OF QUESTIONS.
THAT CAN BE MINIMIZED WHEN YOU'RE ACTUALLY INTERACTING
WITH THE APP, BUT IT POPS UP TO SHOW YOU WHERE YOU ARE AND GIVE
YOU A CHANCE TO SELECT WHERE YOU WANT TO GO.
NUMBER TWO IS THIS LITTLE POP-UP THAT COMES UP THAT HAS A
LITTLE BIT OF INFORMATION, SO EVERY TIME YOU SELECT A MAP,
THIS POP-UP WILL APPEAR AND IT WILL TELL YOU A LITTLE BIT
ABOUT WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT AND WHY WE SELECTED IT FOR THIS
PARTICULAR CATEGORY.
IT ALSO MIGHT GIVE YOU A LITTLE BIT OF INFORMATION ABOUT HOW
THIS SCALE BAR WORKS AND HOW SOME OF THE COLORS MIGHT WORK.
BUT, AGAIN, IT'S JUST KIND OF AN ORIENTATION TO THE MAP.
NUMBER THREE IS AN AUDIO.
SO THE AUDIOS ARE ABOUT A MINUTE LONG,
AND THEY ARE NOT REDUNDANT WITH THIS LITTLE POP-UP OF
INFORMATION.
THEY'RE A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THE STORY.
THEY TELL YOU A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT HOW THIS PROCESS WORKS
AND WHY IS IMPORTANT FOR SEA LEVEL RISE.
THEN DOWN ON THE BOTTOM, ITEM NUMBER FOUR,
THAT'S WHERE OUR DATA SOURCE IS.
SO IT TELLS YOU -- AND I'M SORRY THIS IS KIND OF DARKLY
COVERED RIGHT NOW -- BUT IT WOULD TELL YOU WHAT THE SOURCE
OF THE DATA FOR THIS MAP VISUALIZATION IS.
AND THEN THERE'S AN INFORMATION BUTTON THERE WHERE YOU CAN
CLICK AND YOU CAN GO BACK TO AN INFORMATION PAGE THAT HAS THE
DATA SOURCE LINK RIGHT THERE SO IF YOU WANTED TO GO TO THE DATA
AND LOOK AT IT IN A DIFFERENT WAY YOU ABSOLUTELY COULD.
AND THEN ITEM NUMBER FIVE ACTUALLY IS A SLIDER THAT LETS
YOU PULL THE MAP LAYER OFF.
IF YOU WANTED TO LOOK AT THE UNDERLYING BASE MAP YOU CAN
JUST PULL THE DATA ASIDE TO ORIENT YOURSELF.
SO THIS IS JUST A LOOK AT THE INFORMATION PAGE.
I TOLD YOU THAT YOU COULD CLICK AND GET AN INFORMATION PAGE,
SO AGAIN, YOU HAVE THE LITTLE ONE MINUTE -- OR EXCUSE ME --
THE QUICK POP-UP THAT SHOWS UP, THEN THE ONE MINUTE AUDIO,
AND THEN YOU HAVE THIS INFORMATION PAGE.
SO YOU HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCAFFOLDING FOR EVERY SINGLE
MAP THAT YOU SELECT.
SO THIS IS JUST THE ENTRY VIEW WHEN YOU FIRST START THE APP,
AND I WANT TO POINT OUT THAT WE HAVE A TUTORIAL AVAILABLE FOR
THE NEW USERS THAT SHOWS ON THE BOTTOM.
ANYTIME YOU WOULD CLOSE DOWN THE APP AND REOPEN IT THAT
WOULD SHOW UP, AND YOU WOULD JUST CLICK ON THAT AND IT GIVES
YOU KIND OF HOW TO NAVIGATE YOUR WAY THROUGH IF YOU WANTED
TO START THERE OR YOU KNOW MOST OF OUR STUDENTS JUST DIVE RIGHT
IN AND START USING.
I WOULD EXPECT NO LESS OF YOU.
SO AGAIN, THE DIRECTORY OF QUESTIONS SHOWS UP ON THE RIGHT
AND YOU'LL SEE AT THE TOP THERE'S SOMETHING CALLED THE
OVERVIEW OF TOPICS.
EVERY SECTION OR FORK OF THE APP THAT HAS A SERIES OF MAPS
IN IT HAS AN OVERVIEW AND THAT IF YOU CLICK ON THAT IT'S LIKE
ONE OF OUR INFORMATION PAGES THAT TELLS YOU A LITTLE BIT
ABOUT HOW THESE PIECES RELATE TO EACH OTHER AND WHY WE PUT
THEM TOGETHER IN ONE PART OF THE APP.
RIGHT NOW WE'RE GOING TO GO TO WHY DOES SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND
THEN WHY DOES SEA LEVEL CHANGE, WE ACTUALLY HAVE FOUR MAIN
CATEGORIES.
ONE IS THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS, ONE IS THE ROLE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, ONE IS THE ROLE OF GLACIERS,
ONE IS THE ROLE OF ICE SHEETS, AND THEN WE ACTUALLY HAVE A
FIFTH THAT'S WHAT ABOUT ISOSTATIC REBOUND.
SO ALL OF THOSE ARE ENCAPSULATED HERE.
WE'RE GOING TO START WITH THE OCEANS.
SO WE'RE GOING TO LOOK AT INTERNAL OCEAN TEMPERATURE AND
WE'RE GOING TO LOOK AT PRESENT DAY.
AND SO WHAT THIS SERIES OF MAPS IS SET UP TO DO IS ACTUALLY LET
YOU DIVE STRAIGHT DOWN IN THE OCEAN SO YOU CAN LOOK AT THE
VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE OCEAN AND HOW IT'S WARMING VERTICALLY
AS YOU'RE GOING DOWN.
AND IT REALLY GIVES YOU A SENSE OF SCALE OF THE OCEAN,
HOW LARGE IT IS, HOW SLOWLY IT'S ACTUALLY WARMING COMPARED
TO THE ATMOSPHERE, AND THEN THE IDEA THAT THERE'S THIS WARM
STORE THERE THAT'S GOING TO BE SLOW TO RECOVER.
SO I PUT TOGETHER A SERIES OF SLIDES THAT'S GOING TO LET US
DIVE DOWN INTO IT, SO LET'S DO THAT NOW.
SO THE MAPS ARE ALL TOUCH-INTERACTIVE SO YOU CAN
SEE MY MOUSE AND I'M SHOWING YOU THAT I HAVE CLICKED THERE
ON THE MAP AND THAT'S THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE IN THAT PARTICULAR
LOCATION.
SO 28.33 DEGREES C AND THIS IS AT SURFACE.
NOW I'M GOING TO DIVE DOWN AND I'M GOING TO GO TO 50 METERS
DOWN.
YOU'LL SEE THAT WE'RE ALREADY LOSING A LITTLE BIT OF THE
TEMPERATURE.
WE'RE DROPPING ABOUT FOUR DEGREES.
NOW I'VE GOING TO GO DOWN TO 100 METERS AND YOU CAN SEE THAT
OUR TEMPERATURE IS DROPPING OFF,
SO WE'RE DOWN NOW ABOUT ALMOST 18 DEGREES.
WE'LL GO DOWN AGAIN TO 200 METERS AND NOW WERE DOWN AT A
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE JUST AROUND 13 DEGREES.
AGAIN AT 500 METERS, NOW WE'RE DOWN TO NINE DEGREES C.
AND THEN AT A THOUSAND METERS WERE AT FIVE AND WE'LL GO TO
ONE MORE AND WHERE AT TWO.
WE COULD KEEP GOING DOWN WITH THIS ACTUAL SERIES OF MAPS GOES
DOWN TO 5500 METERS BELOW SEA LEVEL.
AND BY THE TIME YOU GET DOWN THERE IS ABOUT 1.27 DEGREES C.
BUT AGAIN, YOU SAW THROUGH THAT SERIES OF MAPS,
AND I'LL JUST DO A QUICK BACK, THAT BY THE TIME YOU HIT 200
METERS YOU'RE PRETTY MUCH AT THE WHERE THE OCEANS HAVE
FORMED AT THIS POINT.
AND AFTER THAT YOU GET DOWN INTO COOLER WATERS.
SO THAT'S THE PRESENT DAY.
NOW I WANT TO TAKE A LOOK THROUGH TIME.
AGAIN, I SAID WE CAN TRAVEL THROUGH TIME AND I WANT TO LOOK
AT TEMPERATURE CHANGE, NOT PRESENT DAY BUT THROUGH THIS
TIME SERIES FROM 1955 TO 2012.
AND I'M GOING TO SHOW YOU TWO SLIDES THAT ARE GROUPED IN
FIVE-YEAR PERIODS.
AND HERE WE'RE NOT LOOKING AT THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE,
WE'RE LOOKING AT THE ANOMALY.
AND THE LITTLE POP-UP THAT SHOWS UP WHEN YOU FIRST CLICK
THIS MAP WOULD'VE TOLD YOU WHY WE USE ANOMALIES AND WHAT THEY
ARE.
SO IT WOULD'VE EXPLAINED TO THE USER THAT ANOMALIES ARE A GOOD
WAY OF LOOKING THROUGH TIME AND CHANGES,
ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU HAVE A LARGE SPACE TO LOOK AT SO
THEY'LL BE SPATIAL VARIABILITY AND ALSO SOME SMALL AMOUNT OF
CHANGE.
SO THIS WOULD HELP US WITH SEEING WHERE THE CHANGE IS.
SO HERE WE'RE SEEING 1955 TO 1960.
AND I'M GOING TO POP TO THE OTHER END, 2007 TO 2012.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT OUR INTERNAL OCEAN TEMPERATURE HAS
DEFINITELY WARMED.
YOU CAN CERTAINLY SEE THAT IN THAT, WHAT THREE YEAR PERIOD.
AGAIN, THIS OPPORTUNITY TO KIND OF TIME TRAVEL.
THEN WE'LL MOVE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
AND AGAIN, I'VE CLICKED ON THIS AND SHOWED YOU THAT WE ARE
ALMOST ADDED TWO DEGREES C TEMPERATURE IN THE ARCTIC.
AND AS DAVE MENTIONED IN HIS PRESENTATION, ARCTIC FEEDBACKS,
YOU CAN SEE HERE CLEARLY THAT THE ARCTIC IS WARMING AT A MUCH
MORE ACCELERATED RATE THAN THE MID-LATITUDES ARE.
AND AGAIN, WE TALKED ABOUT THE FACT THAT TWO DEGREES CAN BE
SIGNIFICANT SO WE ARE CERTAINLY MOVING HERSELF UP INTO THIS
WARM TEMPERATURE.
THEN AS I MENTIONED THERE WAS ANOTHER SECTION ABOUT
POST-GLACIAL REBOUND.
AND THIS IS KIND OF AN INTERESTING MAP THAT SHOWS US
WHERE THE LORING TIDE ICE SHEET WAS IN THE NORTH AND HOW IT SAT
OVER THE HUDSON BAY.
YOU CAN SEE THAT WHITE OUTLINE IS NOW THE HUDSON BAY,
AND THE RED AROUND IT IS WHERE THE ICE SHEET SET.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT THAT AREA IS ACTUALLY STILL REBOUNDING.
AND IF YOU LOOK UP AT THE TEMPERATURE SCALE YOU CAN SEE
THAT IS REBOUNDING AT ANYWHERE FROM 8 TO 13 MILLIMETERS A YEAR
STILL ALL THESE MANY YEARS AFTER THAT LORING TIDE ICE
SHEET HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THIS AREA.
IT ALSO SHOWS YOU THIS AREA AROUND THE OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE
ICE SHEET WAS AND THAT'S WHAT WE CALL THE PERIPHIAL BULGE,
OR THE AREA THINKING ABOUT IT LIKE A WATERBED,
WHEN THE ICE SHEET SAT IN THE MIDDLE,
THAT'S WHEN THE EDGE WOULD GO UP.
THAT SECTION IS NOW SETTLING.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT THIS SECTION OVER HERE ON THE ATLANTIC AND
THAT AREA IS SETTLING AS SEA LEVEL IS RISING.
THAT AREA IS GOING TO SEE A BIGGER EFFECT FROM SEA LEVEL
RISE BECAUSE IT SETTLING WHILE THE WATERS ARE MOVING UP.
AND SO GOING BACK TO DAVE HAD SHOWED YOU A LOOK AT THE TIDE
GAUGES FROM NOAA, THIS IS THE WAY THAT WE HAD PULLED NOAA'S
DATA IN AND ARE LOOKING AT IT JUST A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENTLY,
BUT IT'S THE SAME IDEA WHERE YOU CAN TAKE ALL THE DATA
AROUND THE WORLD AND LOOK AT WHERE THE TIDE GAUGES ARE.
AND YOU CAN CLICK AND SEE WHERE IT'S RISING,
WHERE IT'S FALLING.
REMEMBERING THE THREE GRAINS OF RICE,
THREE MILLIMETERS A YEAR OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON AVERAGE,
I'VE CLICKED IN A SPOT IN MEXICO AND YOU CAN SEE THAT
THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION SEA LEVEL IS RISING FASTER THAN THE
GLOBAL AVERAGE.
SO AGAIN, IT'S KIND OF FUN TO EXPLORE AND LOOK AT THIS AND
TRY AND FIGURE OUT WHAT KINDS OF PROCESSES MIGHT BE DOING
THAT.
THEN THERE'S ANOTHER WHOLE SECTION ON THE POLAR REGIONS
BECAUSE AS DAVE MENTIONED THAT'S WHERE THE POTENTIAL IS
FOR FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE.
THIS IS ICE THICKNESS IN ANTARCTICA AND YOU CAN SEE
CLICKED ON THE CENTER WHERE WE HAVE OVER THREE METERS OF ICE
STACKED UP.
YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THAT EAST ANTARTICA HAS A LOT MORE ICE
AND A LOT MORE YOU KNOW VOLUME OF ICE THICKNESS,
THAN WEST ANTARCTICA AND WEST ANTARCTICA HAS THESE LARGE ICE
SHELVES THAT DAVE IS TALKING ABOUT.
YOU CAN TRAVEL THEN UNDERNEATH THE EYE SHEET AND WE CAN LOOK
AT TAKING THE ICE SHEET OFF, WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE BELOW?
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT QUITE A BIT OF IT IS WELL BELOW SEA
LEVEL, SO THESE INTERIOR SECTIONS ARE WAY BELOW.
AND DAVID HAD POINTED OUT THAT THIS WAS PINE ISLAND GLACIER
AND THWAITS GLACIER.
THESE ARE AREAS THAT ARE MOVING VERY FAST RIGHT NOW AND IT'S
BECAUSE WE CAN GET WARM WATER UP UNDERNEATH HERE AND HELP
ACCELERATE SOME OF THIS.
WE'LL GO BACK TO THAT ONE IMAGE THAT DAVE SHOWED YOU EARLIER
AND YOU CAN SEE AGAIN HERE'S PINE ISLAND GLACIER AND ITS
MOVING OVER 3000 METERS A YEAR.
SO AGAIN, ALL THOSE PROCESSES INTERRELATE AND IT IS WONDERFUL
TO BE ABLE TO LOOK AT THOSE MAPS AND IN A SERIES AND SEE
HOW THEY DO INTERACT, AGAIN, THE WHOLE IDEA OF SYSTEMS.
WE ALSO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TRAVEL BACK IN TIME SO WE CAN
CLICK ON THE LINK, WHAT ABOUT CLIMATE IN THE PAST,
AND WE CAN LOOK AT THE LORING TIDE ICE SHEET AND HOW IT WAS
AT ITS FULLEST EXTENT AND WE CAN ACTUALLY DE-GLACIATE.
SO WE CAN REMOVE THE ICE SHEET.
SO THIS ONE'S KIND OF FUN.
WE STARTED AT 18,000 YEARS AGO AND WE CAN CLICK THROUGH
REMOVING THE ICE SHEET.
I HAVE TWO DIFFERENT -- IT GOES THROUGH IT AT 500 YEARS
INTERVALS.
I JUST CLICKED A COUPLE OF THESE AND I'LL SHOW THEM TO
YOU.
PRIMARILY I WANTED TO POINT OUT THESE RED DOTS AND THERE'S SOME
GREEN DOTS, THESE ARE THE SCIENCE THAT HELPS US KNOW HOW
THERE WAS OR WASN'T AN ICE SHEET THERE.
SO THEY'RE CARBON AND BERYLLIUM DATES.
CARBON TELLING US WHEN THERE WAS A BIOLOGY THERE AND
BERYLLIUM TELLING US WHEN THERE WAS A SERVICE EXPOSURE OF THE
ROCK THERE.
THOSE ARE HOW WE KNOW THE ICE SHEET WAS NOT THERE,
AND SO THAT HELPS US TO DESIGN THESE MODELS THAT SHOW THE
RETREATS.
SO WE'LL CLICK THROUGH AND YOU CAN SEE ALL THIS DATA HAT'S
HELPING US PIN DOWN WHAT HAPPENED.
YOU CAN ALSO SEE BY THE WAY AS THE ICE SHEET MELTED THERE AND
RETREATED, IT LEFT THESE LITTLE LAKES,
THESE GLACIAL LAKES AROUND THE EDGES WHICH MOST HAVE SINCE
FILLED IN BUT WE CERTAINLY STILL HAVE OUR GREAT LAKES.
AND AGAIN, WE'RE LOOKING AT THIS ICE SHEET RETREAT BUT I
JUST LOVE THE FACT THAT THE DATA POINTS ARE THERE TO REALLY
HELP THE USER AND THE STUDENT UNDERSTAND THAT WE DON'T MAKE
THESE THINGS UP.
WE ACTUALLY HAVE EVIDENCE FOR THEM.
THERE'S THIS WHOLE SECTION ON FUTURE PROJECTIONS.
THIS ONE IS LOOKING AT THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IF WE HAD CLICKED
ON THE TIDE GAUGES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO YOU WOULD SEE THAT
THIS AREA ACTUALLY HAS SEA LEVEL RISING THREE TIMES THE
GLOBAL RATE SO IT'S ABOUT NINE MILLIMETERS A YEAR PRIMARILY
BECAUSE IT'S BEING SETTLEMENT STARVED BECAUSE OFOUR
CHANNELIZING ANALYZING OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS WAS A GREAT DELTA; YOU KNOW IT STILL IS A DELTA BUT
IT'S STARTING TO LOSE ITS SEDIMENT FEED AND SO IS
SETTLING DOWN.
SO THIS IS A PRESENT-DAY HIGH TIDE AND THEN I'LL CLICK INTO
SIX FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE AND YOU CAN SEE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THIS PARTICULAR AREA.
I WANTED TO SHOW YOU THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN
PRESENT-DAY, PRESENT HIGH TIDE LEVEL AND THEN YOU CAN SEE WITH
THE SIX FOOT SEA LEVEL CERTAINLY DELAWARE HAS SOME BIG
IMPACTS AND MARYLAND HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
AND THEN THE LAST ONE I'LL SHOW YOU AND I'LL JUST SHOW YOU AT
SIX FEET OF SEA LEVEL TO SAVE TIME, LAGUARDIA AIRPORT,
NEWARK AIRPORT OUR INFRASTRUCTURE DISAPPEARS AND I
DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TO GO TO SIX FEET.
IT DISAPPEARS AT THREE FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE.
SO NEW JERSEY IS DEFINITELY GOING TO BE SERIOUSLY IMPACTED
AS IS NEW YORK AND CERTAINLY FURTHER DOWN IN NEW YORK AND
JAMAICA BAY, LARGE IMPACTS.
I TOLD YOU WE HAD A SECTION ON THE HUMAN ELEMENT,
THE SOCIAL SCIENCE ELEMENT.
SO WHO IS VULNERABLE.
AND THIS IS THOSE COMMUNITIES THAT ARE LEAST ABLE TO RESPOND
AND DEAL WITH THESE CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL.
THESE ARE THE OCEAN ATOLLS, NOT ALL ARE POPULATED,
BUT SOME CERTAINLY ARE.
YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY OF THESE BLACK DOTS AND IT WILL PULL UP
A LITTLE INFORMATION.
IN MOST OF THEM THERE'S AN IMAGE IF WE HAD ONE ABOUT THIS
PARTICULAR ATOLL AND THEN YOU CAN CLICK ON MORE INFORMATION
TO GO EVEN FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THEM.
BUT JUST AGAIN TO GIVE YOU A SENSE OF WHO REALLY ARE THESE
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
THIS IS A MAP THAT I ALLUDED TO EARLIER ABOUT THE HUMAN
FOOTPRINT OR THE LACK OF RESILIENCE.
I WAS AT THE NATIONAL SCIENCE TEACHERS ASSOCIATION
CONFERENCE, I GUESS IT WAS LAST WEEK, IN TENNESSEE.
AND WHEN I WAS THERE DEMOING THE APP SEVERAL PEOPLE THAT
WERE FROM NASHVILLE ASKED ME TO ZOOM, ZOOM,
ZOOM WAY IN AND LOOK AT WHAT WAS GOING IN TENNESSEE.
AND WHAT I LIKE ABOUT SOME OF THESE VULNERABLE MAPS IS THAT
THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY FOCUSED ON JUST THE SEA LEVEL
RISE AT THE EDGES OF OUR CONTINENT.
THEY ACTUALLY SHOW YOU FLOOD, STORM SURGES,
ETC. THAT IMPACT THE INTERIOR AS WELL.
AND WHAT HAPPENED WAS WE ZOOMED INTO NASHVILLE AND FOUND THAT
IT WAS ACTUALLY AT THE LOWEST IN THE RESILIENCE WHICH I
SUPPOSE IF YOU WERE THERE YOU WOULD -- I HAD BEEN BEFORE --
BUT IT'S A VERY PAVED AREA.
AND SO AGAIN, WHERE WE'VE MADE CHANGES TO OUR EARTH'S SURFACE
IT'S LESS ABLE TO ABSORB WATER.
WE ARE LESS RESILIENT.
YOU'LL SEE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA MUCH LESS RESILIENT
THAN WESTERN.
EUROPE MUCH LESS RESILIENT THAN A LOT OF THE ASIAN COUNTRIES.
BUT IF WE WERE TO SPAN FURTHER OUT ON THIS WE WOULD SEE THAT
INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA ARE ALSO NOT VERY RESILIENT.
THEY'VE ALWAYS HAD TREMENDOUS CHANGES.
AND THEN A LAST LOOK AT VULNERABILITY.
THIS ONE LOOKS AT FLOODS AND WHAT IS INTERESTING IN THIS SET
OF MAPS IS WE HAVE ECONOMIC IMPACT HERE AND I'M LOOKING AT
NORTH AMERICA AND THEN WE HAVE FLOOD MORTALITY AND YOU CAN SEE
YOU WE HAVE A MUCH STRONGER ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM FLOODING
THAN WE DO MORTALITY.
YET THAT IS NOT TRUE FOR A LOT OF OTHER COUNTRIES.
SO CERTAINLY, THIS AREA IN EUROPE IS LIKE US,
HAS A STRONGER IMPACT FROM ECONOMIC THAN FROM MORTALITY.
IF YOU GET INTO AFRICA LESS OF AN IMPACT THAN SOUTH AMERICA AS
WELL.
LESS OF AN IMPACT FROM ECONOMICS MORE OF AN IMPACT
FROM MORTALITY.
THIS JUST GOES TO OUR INFRASTRUCTURE AND OUR ABILITY
TO DEAL WITH SOME OF THESE THINGS.
SO AGAIN, IT LOOKS AT THESE VULNERABILITIES THAT WE HAVE.
SO WHAT I WANTED TO DO NOW IS SHOW YOU WE'VE BEEN DEVELOPING
A SERIES OF WHAT WE CALLED QUESTS WHICH ARE QUESTIONS,
STORYLINES, THAT HELP WALK YOU THROUGH THE APP AND HAVE A
SCIENCE POINT TO THEM.
AND I THOUGHT I'D JUST DO QUICKLY KIND OF A SHOW OF THE
SKELETON OF ONE.
SO THIS ONE WE CALL THE SWEDISH QUEST AND IT STARTS WITH A
LITTLE STORYLINE ABOUT YOU'RE MOVING TO SWEDEN AND YOU'VE
BEEN AMAZED THAT THE POPULATION THERE IS NOT REALLY THAT
CONCERNED ABOUT SEA LEVEL RISE.
IT INVITES YOU TO KIND OF CLICK AROUND AND LOOK AT TIDE GAUGES
AROUND THE WORLD.
AND THEN IT DRAWS YOU UP TO THIS SWEDISH AREA,
FINLAND AREA, AND YOU CLICK ON THE TIDE GAUGE AND YOU CAN SEE
THAT SEA LEVEL IS FALLING THERE,
WHICH IS A BIT OF A PUZZLE.
AND SO IT DIRECTS YOU TO THIS OTHER SECTION OF THE APP WHERE
WE LOOK AT CLIMATE IN THE PAST AND WE GO BACK 20,000 YEARS.
AND, LO AND BEHOLD, IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA THERE WAS AN
EURASION ICE SHEET.
AND WE CAN LOOK AT THE ICE SHEET AND YOU WOULD RECOGNIZE
THIS CONFIGURATION OF LAND IF YOU HAD SEEN IT BETTER.
I HAD SOMEWHAT OBSCURED IT WITH THE LITTLE POP-UP.
BUT THEY WOULD RECOGNIZE THIS WAS IN FACT WAS THE SAME BIT OF
LAND.
20,000 YEARS AGO IT WAS UNDER AN ICE SHEET.
WOULD THAT HAVE CAUSED A PROBLEM?
WELL, LET'S LOOK AT HOW MUCH ICE IT WAS AND YOU CAN SEE THAT
IT WAS 2700 METERS OF ICE.
SEEMS LIKE A LOT, BUT LET'S LOOK AT SOMETHING FOR A
COMPARISON.
SO WE WILL GO TO GREENLAND'S ICE SHEET AND WE WILL SEE THAT
RIGHT NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF GREENLAND'S ICE WE HAVE ABOUT
THE SAME AMOUNT OF ICE STACKED THERE.
AND IF WE WERE TO TAKE THAT ICE OFF AND LOOK BENEATH YOU CAN
SEE THAT IT ACTUALLY HAS DEPRESSED THE LAND DOWN BELOW
SEA LEVEL.
SO WE ARE AT 153 METERS DOWN BELOW SEA LEVEL IN THIS
PARTICULAR LOCATION THAT I CLICKED ON THE APP.
SO AGAI, IT TIES TOGETHER THIS WHOLE IDEA OF ICE HAVING BEEN
THERE AND THE FACT THAT THAT PRESSED DOWN THE EARTH AND NOW
IT'S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR THAT TO REBOUND.
WE DID SOME INTERACTIVES TO GO WITH THE APP SO THIS ONE
ACTUALLY TELLS THE STORY OF ISOSTATIC REBOUND.
SO IT STARTS AT 120,000 YEARS AGO;
IT HAS THE ICE SHEET AT THAT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WAS
PRIMARILY GREENLAND AND IT HAS SEA LEVEL AT THAT PERIOD OF
TIME.
YOU CAN SEE PRESENT DAY SEA LEVEL,
SO THE SEA LEVEL WAS HIGHER BY ABOUT SIX METERS.
THERE'S A LITTLE RED BALL DOWN HERE ON THE BOTTOM THAT YOU CAN
MOVE THROUGH.
YOU CLICK THROUGH DIFFERENT STAGES AND IT KIND OF WALKS
THROUGH A SERIES OF GROWING AN ICE SHEET AND THEN IT RETREATS.
I'LL SHOW YOU JUST ONE OTHER STEP AND THAT'S THE FULL EXTENT
OF THE ICE SHEET.
YOU SEE THAT YOU ISOSTATIC REBOUND SO YOU HAVE THE LAND
DEPRESSING UNDERNEATH.
YOU HAVE THIS PERIPHIAL BULGE THAT I MENTIONED EARLIER.
YOU CAN SEE THE LAURENTIDE ICE SHEET SHE IS AT ITS FULL
EXTENT.
YOU CAN SEE THAT SEA LEVEL HAS DROPPED WHICH REINFORCES THE
CONNECTION BETWEEN OUR OCEANS AND OUR ICE SHEETS AND HOW
THOSE TWO CONNECT.
SO WE EITHER HAVE WATER IN OUR OCEANS OR WE HAVE IT IN OUR ICE
SHEETS.
SO AGAIN, THESE LITTLE INTERACTIVES ARE LINKED TO OUR
APP AND ARE AVAILABLE TO USE.
SO I'LL MOVE NOW TO JUST HOW THIS CONNECTS TO NGSS FOR THOSE
OF YOU WHO ARE INTERESTED IN THAT CONNECTION AND, CERTAINLY,
THERE ARE MANY CONNECTIONS TO NGSS.
ONE OF THE ONES THAT WE THINK IS MOST INTERESTING IS BEING
ABLE TO ASK QUESTIONS AROUND DATA AND WE'VE ACTUALLY
LAUNCHED INTO A RESEARCH PROJECT ON THIS PARTICULAR
TOPIC TO SEE IF WE CAN GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING HOW THE
APP CAN BE USED TO HELP STUDENTS PERFORM AND ASK
QUESTIONS.
SO WITH THAT, A TOPIC OF QUESTIONS,
WE HAVE A QUESTION TO THROUGH UP FOR ANSWER.
OUR FINAL QUESTION OF THE NIGHT: SO WHICH OF THE
FOLLOWING PROCESSES ARE INCLUDED IN THE APP BECAUSE
THEY AFFECT SEA LEVEL?
>>BRUCE: THANKS, MARGIE.
AS I MENTIONED, WE'LL BE CLOSING THIS IN JUST ABOUT A
MOMENT.
WE HAVE WE HAVE SOME EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES IN
ADDITION TO THE APP FOLLOWING MARGIE'S PRESENTATION.
AND WE'LL ALSO OPEN IT UP FOR JUST A FEW QUESTIONS BECAUSE OF
THE HOUR AFTER MARGIE'S DONE.
SO WE'LL KEEP SOME FOR JUST ANOTHER MOMENT.
WE GOT ABOUT 83 PERCENT OF THE FOLKS VOTING.
OKAY, LET'S TAKE A LOOK.
>>MARGIE: OKAY, YOU GUYS ARE GREAT.
IT DEFINITELY TALKS ABOUT GLACIERS AND ICE SHEETS
CONTRIBUTIONS.
IT TALKS ABOUT THE ROLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
REMEMBER WE HAD THAT ONE ATMOSPHERIC IMAGE WITH
FEEDBACKS IN THE ARCTIC.
IT DEFINITELY TALKS ABOUT THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS.
WE DELVED DOWN INTO THE OCEAN AND LOOKED AT WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS BEING STORED.
DEFINITELY POST-GLACIER REBOUND.
AND NOBODY SELECTED TRADEWINDS SO YOU'RE ALL ON TOP YOUR GAME.
OKAY.
I JUST THINK I HAVE MAYBE ONE MORE SLIDE FIRST,
AND THEN I WILL TURN IT BACK OVER TO YOU.
>>BRUCE: YEP, BACK TO YOUR SCREE.
>>MARGIE: OKAY.
SO MY FINAL SLIDE IS JUST REMINDING YOU THE NAME OF THE
APP, POLAR EXPLORER: SEA LEVEL.
IT IS AVAILABLE FOR FREE AT THE APP STORE.
I WANTED TO MENTION THAT FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE TEACHING
IN A CLASSROOM AND DON'T HAVE IPADS AVAILABLE,
THERE ARE CONNECTORS THAT YOU CAN GET SO YOU CAN PROJECT AN
IPAD WHICH I USE ANYTIME I DO A DEMO AND IT'S GREAT FOR
PROJECTING ON A SMARTBOARD OR ANY OTHER, YOU KNOW,
A SCREEN OR WHATEVER.
BUT IT ALLOWS YOU TO HAVE THE EXPERIENCE OF THE APP WITH A
CLASSROOM IF THEY DON'T HAVE THE IPADS AVAILABLE.
THERE IS ALSO A WEB-BASED VERSION.
IT'S NOT AS INTERACTIVE, BUT IT IS AVAILABLE.
AND BOTH OF THEM ARE LINKED OFF THAT PARTICULAR URL.
THEN THERE ARE A SERIES OF THE QUESTS INTERACTIVES AND THE
SUPPORTING ACTIVITY IS AVAILABLE THE SECOND LINK DOWN
HERE FOR THE POLAR EDUCATION.
AND WITH THAT, I WILL TURN IT BACK OVER TO YOU, BRUCE.
>>BRUCE: OH, THANKS.
YOU KNOW, LET ME JUST SHOW ONE MORE ITEM OVER HERE,
REAL QUICK, WHICH IS SOME OF THE EDUCATION RESOURCES THAT WE
HAVE IN ADDITION TO THIS APP FOR FOLKS.
ONE IS THE OCEAN SERVICE SEA LEVEL RISE MODULE WHICH IS
RELATIVELY NEW, WHICH FOCUSES ON A SERIES OF EDUCATIONAL
RESOURCES BUILT AROUND A 23 MINUTE INTERACTIVE VIDEO
PRESENTATION.
AS PART OF THAT WE HAVE THE DATA IN THE CLASSROOM: SEA
LEVEL UNIT WHICH MANY OF YOU HAVE HEARD ABOUT.
AND WE ALSO HAVE EARTH LAB, CLIMATE AND CRYOSPHERE SPHERE
WHICH IS A TERRIFIC ONLINE UNIT.
AND ALSO THERE'S A LINK HERE FROM EDUCATION RESOURCES ON SEA
LEVEL RISE FROM CLIMATE.GOV.
BEFORE WE HAVE OUR FINAL ANNOUNCEMENTS I JUST LIKE TO
OPEN UP THE MIC OVER HERE FOR DAVE AND MARGIE AND ASK A
COUPLE OF QUESTIONS TO FOLKS OVER HERE.
IF NEED BE WE CAN PUT INTO YOUR SCREENS, MARGIE OR DAVE.
ONE OF THE QUESTIONS WAS JUST ABOUT THE APP,
WAS HOW OFTEN WILL THIS APP BE UPDATED?
I MEAN HOW RECENT WHAT THE DATA ALL THE ANOMALIES BE UPDATED,
MARGIE?
>>MARGIE: THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
SO SOME OF THE APP IS ACTUALLY BEING FED WITH LIVE DATA ON A
REGULAR BASIS.
WHEN I SAY LIVE DATA IT USUALLY MEANS IT GETS UPDATED EVERY
MONTH AND, YOU KNOW, SOME OF IT IS ACTUALLY AN ANNUAL,
SO IT WOULD BE UPDATED ANNUALLY.
OTHERS ARE ARCHIVES SO THEY -- AND I THINK THAT IS IMPORTANT
FOR PEOPLE TO RECOGNIZE THAT OLD DATA IS NOT BAD DATA.
SOMETIMES ARCHIVE DATA IS JUST AS USEFUL FOR GIVING US A SET
OF UNDERSTANDINGS ABOUT TRENDS.
SO IT'S KIND OF A COMBINATION OF BOTH OF THOSE PIECES.
>>BRUCE: AND, MARGIE, CAN YOU SHARE YOUR SCREEN FOR A MOMENT
JUST ABOUT UP THE LOCATION OF THAT APP?
BUT, BY THE WAY, JUST SO EVERYBODY KNOWS WE WILL,
YOU CAN ACCESS ALL OF THESE SLIDES AND THE LINK WILL BE
GIVEN OUT TO VIDEO ARCHIVE OF THIS VERY SHORTLY.
ANOTHER QUESTION WE HAVE ABOUT THE APP, MARGIE,
IS ONE THAT YOU KNOW YOU GOTTEN FROM ME AS WELL WHICH IS WHAT
ABOUT ANDROID-BASED SMARTPHONES?
>>MARGIE: YEAH, BOY, SO IF WE HAD STARTED ON DEVELOPING THIS
APP ABOUT A YEAR LATER, THERE WAS A DUAL PLATFORM THAT WAS
INTRODUCED THAT WOULD'VE ALLOWED US TO DEVELOP FOR BOTH
SIMULTANEOUSLY, BUT THAT ISN'T WHAT HAPPENED.
SO WE DON'T HAVE THE FUNDS UNFORTUNATELY TO MANAGE TO GET
IT INTO AN ANDROID SO UNLESS WE CAN GET ANOTHER GRANT GOING I
DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO MAKE IT INTO AN ANDROID.
AND I'M SORRY ABOUT THAT BECAUSE I KNOW THAT THERE IS A
LARGE ANDROID FOLLOWING.
>>BRUCE: AND YOU KNOW, ALSO WE'VE HAD A QUESTION REGARDING
THE AGE RANGE FOR STUDENTS FOR USING THE APP.
>>MARGIE: YEAH, SO WE HAVE -- WE'VE DONE SOME TESTING WITH
IT, HIGH SCHOOL NOT A PROBLEM, UNDERGRADUATE OF COURSE NOT A
PROBLEM.
WE HAVE TESTED IT WITH MIDDLE SCHOOL AND DEFINITELY USING THE
QUESTS AND WITH SOME GUIDANCE, IT'S DEFINITELY USABLE FOR
THEM.
I WILL SAY THAT FOR THE MIDDLE SCHOOL THE AUDIOS ARE PROBABLY
USABLE.
THE ONE PAGE WRITE UPS ARE PROBABLY WRITTEN A LITTLE TO
HIGH MIDDLE SCHOOLER.
BUT THE ALERTS THAT POP UP IN THE AUDIO SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD GUIDANCE AND I THINK WITH A GOOD TEACHER YOU SHOULD BE
FINE WITH THAT.
>>BRUCK: THAT'S GREAT.
THANKS SO MUCH.
AND, YOU KNOW, I ACTUALLY DO HAVE A QUESTION HERE FOR DAVE.
AND IF YOU LIKE, DAVE, I CAN ACTUALLY BUMP THIS OVER.
LET ME IF YOU HAVE SOME, I'M GOING TO TURN THIS OVER TO YOUR
SCREEN REAL QUICK, FOR YOU, DAVE, >>DAVE: SURE.
>>BRUCE: A QUESTION, WHAT ARE GREENLAND AND ANTARCTICA
PREDICTED TO LOOK LIKE IN THE YEAR 2100?
MAYBE YOU HAVE A SLIDE THAT YOU CAN USE TO SORT OF GIVE US A
VISUALIZATION OF THAT.
>>DAVE: YES, THAT'S SOMETHING THAT WERE FLUSHING OUT IN THE
SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY RIGHT NOW.
AND SO THERE ARE SOME INDIVIDUAL PEER-REVIEWED
ARTICLES THAT HAVE COME OUT THAT DO SHOW WHERE,
WHAT THE ICE SHEETS ARE GOING TO LOOK AT.
SO FOR GREENLAND WHAT WE SEE IS, AGAIN,
MOST OF THE THINNING HAPPENS AT THE MARGINS.
AND SO BY 2100 MAYBE IT'S HARD TO SAY BUT WHERE IT'S GOING TO
MELT FIRST IS DEFINITELY AT THE MARGINS AND DEFINITELY IN THE
INLAND AREA.
SO, EXCUSE ME WHILE I STEP THROUGH THESE.
AND SO AND MARGIE KIND OF MENTIONED THIS AS WELL,
BUT YOU CAN SEE ALL THESE AREAS -- FOR GREENLAND,
THE MOST SENSITIVE -- AND ANTARTICA -- THE MOST SENSITIVE
AREAS ARE THE AREAS THAT ARE BELOW SEA LEVEL BECAUSE THAT'S
WHERE THE WARM WATER CAN GET IN.
SO GREENLAND, IT'S JAKOBSHAVN AND FROM PETERMAN IN THE NORTH
SO THAT'S WHERE WE'RE GOING TO LOSE THE ICE SHEET THE MOST.
GREENLAND IS SURROUNDED BY MOUNTAINS AND SO THEY ARE KIND
OF HOLDING THE ICE AND THERE'S GOING TO BE A LITTLE MORE
PROTECTED ON THAT SIDE.
IN ANTARCTICA WE CAN USE THIS MAP AND WE'LL JUST SEE AGAIN
WHERE IT'S RED IS WHERE IT'S ACTUALLY THINNING AND THAT'S
ACTUALLY WHERE WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO ERODE.
INTERESTING THING HERE IS THAT BY 2100 WE MIGHT SEE SORT OF
WEST ANTARCTICA GOING FAST AND I MEAN SUCH THAT THE SUMMIT OF
THE ICE SHEET ACTUALLY MIGRATES VERY FAR AND WE CAN ACTUALLY
BEGIN TO GET AN INLAND SEA WARMING BETWEEN THE ROSS ICE
SHELF AMUNDSEN SEA, BUT MOST OF WEST ANTARTICA SPLIT INTO TWO.
THESE ARE SORT OF SINGLE-AUTHOR PROJECTIONS BUT THEY ARE
PEER-REVIEWED AND THIS IS AN ACTIVE RESEARCH WHERE THE ICE
WILL MELT WHEN IT DOES.
>>BRUCE: GREAT.
THANKS SO MUCH.
ANY OTHER QUESTIONS FOR SOME FOLKS?
OKAY.
SOMEBODY ASKS FOR THE COMPLETE REFERENCE TO HARIG,
ET AL 2012 TO REVIEW THE STUDY.
THAT'S FROM ANGELA.
ANGELA, I'M SURE YOU CAN SEND DAVE AN EMAIL DIRECTLY IF YOU'D
LIKE THAT.
>>DAVE: YES.
IT'S DEFINITELY FINE.
HARRY HAS TWO PAPERS.
HE'S HAD PRINCETON, I MEAN HE'S GOT ONE ON ANTARTICA AND ONE ON
GREENLAND AND THEY'RE 2015 AND '13.
IF YOU EMAIL ME I WILL DEFINITELY SEND YOU THE
REFERENCE AND THE PDF.
MY EMAIL IS dporter@ldeo.columbia.edu
>>BRUCE: YES.
THAT'S IN YOUR SLIDES.
THANKS.
>>DAVE: OKAY.
GREAT.
>>BRUCE: TERRIFIC.
FINAL NOTES OVER HERE.
JUST EVERYBODY PLEASE GO AND CHECK YOUR EMAILS.
YOU HAVE A LINK TO OUR POST-WEBINAR POLL.
REALLY APPRECIATE IT IF YOU WENT AND TOOK IT RIGHT NOW.
AND I HAVE FIXED THE DATES FROM MY EARLIER SLIDE.
MONDAY, APRIL 25TH, THAT'S GOIING TO BE THE NEXT NOAA'S
CLIMATE STEWARDS BOOK DISCUSSION CLUS ON THE
PHYSCHOLOGY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND MONDAY, MAY 2ND, AT 7:30,
IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT CLIMATE STEWARDS WEBINAR,
HOW TO FRAME CLIMATE CHANGE CONVERSATIONS WITH YOUR
STUDENTS/AUDIENCES.
MUCH THANKS TO DR. DAVE PORTER AND DR. MARGIE TURRIN FROM THE
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY LAMONT-DOHERTY EARTH
OBSERVATORY.
YOU GUYS WERE GREAT.
REALLY APPRECIATE IT.
>>DAVE: THANK YOU, BRUCE.
HAD A GREAT TIME.
>>MARGIE: THANKS SO MUCH.
>>BRUCE: THANKS SO MUCH.
LOOKING FORWARD TO BEING IN TOUCH REAL SOON ANND THANKS TO
EVERYONE WHO JOINED US THIS EVENINNG.
WE HOPE YOU HAD A WONDERFUL NIGHT.
BYE-BYE.
>>DAVE: BYE.
>>MARGIE: BYE.