>> BRUCE: This evening before the NOAA Climate Steward
Education client webinar, our main presentation will be given
by Roger Griffis , our project change coordinator for NOAA's
National Fisheries Service.
Roger is a marine ecologist with nearly 20 years of
experience with NOAA developing and implementing strategies for
the sustainable use and conservation of ocean and
coastal resources.
Now, in his role as climate change coordinator,
Roger is r helping the agency identify,
repair for and impact of climate change on
emissions areas such fisheries, management,
protective specifies, conservation,
habitat protection restoration.
And over the p he's been leading an effort to
assist climate impact on U.S.
ocean ecosystems as part of the National Climate Assessment.
And he also co-author and of the first U.S.
climate many strategy to safeguard the
nation's fish, wildlife and plant resources in a changing
climate.
Now prior to his c position,
Roger managed Reef Conservation Program and
serves as policy NOAA's Office of Policy and
Strategic Planning.
And without further ado, I would like to turn the Mike as
well as the calm over to Roger.
And for everyone's information, all of these slides,
presentations will and will be archived and made
available to stewards very shortly.
Take it away Roger.
>> >> ROGER: Thank you very much Bruce and thank you all
for
joining us tonight.
It is a pleasure to be here and a pleasure to be spending the
next 45 minutes to a an hour with you.
I want to start by just thanking you all climate
stewards for your interest in climate related issues in
general, but in particular, for an interest tonight in climate
and marine ecosystems.
The introduction made it sound like I been with NOAA since
about probably the 1860's.
It is not exactly correct but I have had the great pleasure of
working with NOAA for quite a while and I'll give you a brief
insight into my first kind of a wake up call to climate impact
emissions program and we met colleagues from Australia and
they said to then, said well, what are you doing?
What are y given the temperatures and the
effect it will have on corral reef?
And my colleagues and I in our program looked at each other
and said, we're not really thinking about that yet,
Tell us what you're thinking?
And so I use t that's our thinking on climate
change and climate impact and ecosystems and I'm just so
excited about our knowledge and in our
practice.
It is happening by sharing really with a global community
from Australia to the European Union.
It really is an exciting time to be part of this science and
policy and management and public dialogue about our
changing changing ocean and how we are
going to prepare these changes.
So without further ado, I will
jump into this presentation.
I probably should -- >> >> BRUCE: Yes,
you look fine Roger.
>> >> ROGER: Okay, Great.
Again, thank you for letting me be here.
I'm assume willing t looked at a whole variety of
background about are taking place in our climate
and that these quite extraordinary and a
little bit of historic on really, an extraordinarily,
unusual time we're in that most of the revolution,
the levels of carbon dioxide in our
atmosphere have reached that they have never been
before in our planet.
Going back oh 7000 years on the far left,
the middle graph going thousand years and you can see
for most of the past years,
this planet has a cycle of ups and downs in
greenhouse gases.
It officer been above about 300 part a million carbon dioxide.
And beginning in 1950's, that you see in the past on graph on
the right side, that concentrations of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere increased very quickly within a
very short period of time.
And we're now a have not seen in a long time up
there about 40:0000 parts per million and this has dramatic
consequences things.
And we're seeing similar patterns of increasing heat
levels and other in a variety of ways.
And there are many signs o warming climate and of course
the previous graphs refers to increasing C0E 2 and greenhouse
gases which create a atmospheric
blanket that is trapping that escaping as it might do in
levels reduced to CO2.
So these a patterns we're seeing that are
associated with climate.
Up above, you can see the air temperature over the ocean
increasing humidity, increasing levels but I want to focus on
the marine system tonight.
And so, over on t you can see the downward trend
in artic sea ice, the trend in sea surface
temperature, driven the increasing content of the
ocean.
The oceans absorb a great deal of heat that's been trapped
associated with a lot of that heating and warming in the
oceans of increasing sea levels.
And so that's what I'm going to be focusing on tonight.
And of course, the other thing that is happening with
increasing C02 the ocean is observing much of
that at least a quarter of that CO2 so the left side of this
slide is showing kind of annual -- the fate of emissions of C02
going from emissions from power plants and other kinds of
things and also emissions from deforestation sources and just
a rough estimate somewhere in the order of 50 percent of that
ends up in the atmosphere, maybe 30 percent of it gets
re-absorbed by the plant, the great carbon suckers of our
planet.
And a third of that is g into our ocean and that is
driving the issue referred to as ocean citification changing
the chemistry and perhaps even biology of the oceans
themselves.
I'm not going to t about that today but
it is a key issue and a key part of this story of
climate-related changes being driven by
increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.
So I'm going to t on three questions: Why should
we care about climate impact on our oceans and coasts?
How is climate impacting oceans and coastal ecosystems?
And a little bit on what can we do to reduce risks,
increase resilience and help both the natural systems that
would depend on our oceans and changing climate and changing
oceans?
So, just to quickly r I'm going to be thinking
primarily about ocean ecosystems under U.S.
jurisdiction and applied is a illustration of that.
It's in the blue areas, that is the light blue,
you can see them North America and the ocean,
and the ocean and as our large green ecosystems.
So that the ocean w the United States and U.S.
territories, and entities.
And the light b within those are referred to as
areas out to about systematisms 00 miles from the shores of the
United States privilege and jurisdiction
over.
So this is the area I'm going to be talking about.
Just a footnote to those o and you are all educators and
as you can see, the economics of the Pacific
Highland ecosystem that ecosystem is larger than
the entire Continental U.S.
and a most people don't realize that it's the breathe and depth
of the U.S.
ocean ecosystems and
jurisdiction.
So, why should we care?
Why do we care about c impact on our marine ecosystem?
And my premise is y care a lot.
There is much at risk both for the United States and globally.
Worldwide, over a billion and a half people depend on marine
resources directly for their good protein.
In the United States, over a million people depend on
fishery related jobs.
That equates into o billion-dollars in sales and
economic impact in the States.
Our tourism is r and coastal habitat.
And 60 % nearly, 6 the U.S.
domestic product comes out of these coastal economies.
And over half our population the ozone value those rich
coastal ecosystems.
Our coastal i therefore,
quite vulnerable to changes particularly driven by storms
and rising sea levels.
Public health issues, diseases related to marine waters along
our coastal, mix that with a lot of people and there are
issues of national security here too given the first
statistic that over a and a half people depend on
fisheries and marine for food.
Should those resources begin changing and perhaps no longer
available worldwide, that could cause quite a bit of unrest and
other issues on a global scale which would translate to
national international stability and
relationships with neighbors and partners across
the globe.
And we know t increasing a reality that
climate changes is impacting ocean
ecosystems and services both in the United States and in marine
systems worldwide.
And the protections are that these impacts are expected to
increase increase.
So let's talk little bit about how climate changes and changes
in climate ripples across ecosystems and I use which kind
of as a cartoon version of what we understand,
how we understand ecosystem and climate ate
impacts.
So climate changes p I talked about increasing
global air ocean temperatures,
also changes and along our coasts and that issue
of increasing carbon dioxide.
Those have a number of implications on directly and
indirectly affecting the fiscal and chemical conditions of
green systems of our oceans.
Increasing temperatures as I said,
the oceans are observing amounts of that trapped solar
radiation by the growing blanket of C02 around the
planet.
And that's driving i ocean temperature.
Increasing ocean temperature affects stratification of
layering of the waters.
I'm sure many of you have jumped into a lake perhaps in
the summertime warm.
The top layer i you stick your feet down into
the water, it quickly and the thermal climb,
that is the stratification and that stratification will affect
the productivity of our systems of this temperatures and wind
affects the circulation of the ocean.
We talked a little bit decreasing sea ice jumping
down into the other squares.
Changes in fresh water in-full dramatically affect
productivity which are the nursery grounds
for many of our issues of rising sea levels and
issues of citification, both major issues affecting ocean
chemistry and communities.
And I'm not going to speak too much about this today but I'm
happy to take questions.
So these changes, these are the physical and chemical
conditions of obviously have the dramatic
effect on the resources of our marine
systems.
And again, they are a direct impact and indirect impacts
but, ocean temperature and circulation and all these
things play a key role in affecting fisheries,
productivity and survivorship.
Phenology of the t things reproduce,
when they grow.
In distribution of species, the abundance of species,
combined distribution and abundance with
changes in composition,
that is changing out with others at
what time.
Changes in the impacts and the seasons and also of the spread
of invasive species.
So these in turn is where the fish are and how many fish
there are and there based on changes in the
basics of the food chain in the ocean system.
These obviously have dramatic impacts on folks that live and
work and get services and benefits from the ocean.
So these could affect the social and economic impacts
including changes in fishing and other
ocean activities, when they take place,
ripple effect on revenue, and economics,
changes in industries, types of fishing activities,
whether or not there fisheries takes place at all.
Changes in sub-sensitive use.
There are many community and cultures that depend on marine
resources for food and sustenance and cultural
heritage.
And because of the c to disease,
there are potentially on community health
and vulnerability.
And as you can s it out as I suggested,
international these kind of changes do
everything from boundary species,
how we negotiate with our neighbors, Canada,
Mexico about who gets fish or where our fisheries can
go.
A variety of i international ability as well.
So I'm hoping that helps paint a picture of kind of the ripple
effect of climate related changes on the ecosystems and
bottom blocks there were my attempt to again,
in the cartoon identify -- well, really,
begin thinking there opportunities for us to
begin reducing risks and taking some action.
It really boils down to t areas.
As you probably k mitigate or reduce the cause of
these changes and that's about ultimately controlling the
climate change on the left side which is about controlling the
emissions of greenhouse gases and potentially also,
affecting storage or sucking that carbon
dioxide back
out of the atmosphere.
Coastal wetlands are tremendous suckers of carbon dioxide back
out of the atmosphere and then adaptation efforts which we are
about dealing with the changes that are in motion on that.
How do we both reduce the risks, reduce the impacts,
seek beneficial outcomes to keep this framework in mind as
we go through some of the examples that I'm going to talk
to you about.
So I mentioned that c having tremendous impact on the
ocean physical conditions.
I'll just reiterate t little bit.
You don't really need to watch the graphic so much as usually
two messages.
One is up in the upper right block which is that the ocean
is warming and some of these graphics show certain parts of
the ocean.
And it's that the o tremendous buffer.
It is in fact absorbing something on the order of about
80 percent of the excess heat is being absorbed by the ocean.
And the other point that I wanted to make is shown in that
graph along the bottom here.
This is a part of annual sea surface temperature changes
anomaly from the historic average since about 1860 all
the way up to about 2010 objection and the main message
here is for variability.
We know that hour climate system,
our ocean system has many natural cycles.
And you can see s cycles up and down patterns
here and in fact, oceanographers have tried to
unravel and understand those kind of cycles for as long as
then they been studying them.
And I think we need to be
thinking both about what is that normal manner of
variability in systems.
And b understand that to know if that
manner is beginning to change.
And this graphic suggests in part that about 1930's,
there was some that began between 1940's and
about now where there where the system began warming
and in fact has appeared continue that warming trend
particularly into the 2000 compared to the timeframe back
in the 1860's to 1920's or so.
Again, the challenge here is to understand well,
is that part of year cycle?
Or is that reflecting a pattern of changing temperatures in the
Atlantic.
I can talk more about that.
So, this is a quick visualization of the global
changes averaged across 1950 and 2010 not average,
these are anomalies from that average and what I wanted to
though you was which is the projection about a
hundred years showing that projection of
climate really dramatically over the northern
hemisphere.
And it really poses some key questions for us as biologist.
And I'm a biologist and someone involved in managing marine
resources and the services that they provide.
Some key questions that we're asking now,
how will warming ocean productivity?
How will the warming species abundance in distribution?
Will the fish stocks follow their shifting of ocean
temperature?
Will they follow their preferences?
Will the fishermen m the pick nothing and
ultimately, how do we sustain
and manage fisheries and other species as these systems begin
to change?
So I'm going to try to quickly walk through some of those
questions.
And I'm going to j is just a visualization to get
us thinking about productivity in ocean systems.
This is a satellite image of concentration for the oceans
and but, one of the things that one of the questions is of
course productivity -- it can change
the patterns of ocean productivity over the past 100
years or so?
And how are those p changing with the warming
season changing climate emission conditions?
And as I m warming waters,
the -- there are at number of different changes
that could take place.
This grange on of the top bars are showing some of the
anticipated changes in tropical systems going from more cooler
times to a more warmer time.
What the suggestion here is that in DROP picks and lid
attitudes there is of the in the protect system of is off
lated by how that could be brought up from
the deep rich colder water.
And that the warming world and warming ocean,
the stratification that water warms more quickly in the
springtime and the projection is that it will warm faster and
the stratification will set up sooner.
And as that happens, t nutrients can't get up into the
upper water and plants may produces as much productivity
in that system.
That's contrasted with this
autobon which is saying that something very different might
happen in the higher altitudes in a warming climate.
And this i altitudes they are not as much
nutrient limited as sometimes light limited and
there may also be some freshening of the sea water
from melting ice capsules.
And so in t latitude in a warming world,
the oceans increase in their productivity
which may result to increasing fish populations in
some high latitude areas.
So my point h it is really complicated.
But two, as you k is not a ocean is not an ocean,
is not an ocean.
In fact, we need to be thinking very carefully about the
different impacts of warming climate,
warming ocean in mid-latitude areas versus high
latitude areas.
And I illustrate this to try and project what some of those
impacts might be just illustrating that some of the
food webs and the colder artic water emissions are low and
much shorter in layers but highly productive,
whereas in some of Atlantic waters,
the food webs have multiple steps, multiple more stages,
more feeding leveling and so, their hypothesis is with
climate-driven changes in ocean temperature.
That could affect t productivity plus the amount of
the base of the food chain, dicon the event material.
But also, the size of them and by affecting those two things
affect the whole tropics all the way out to tropical levels.
So, how will warming affect species,
abundance and distribution?
And will fish stock follow shifting ocean temperatures?
I think in many places, observations are already
reflecting changes in ocean productivity.
But the next q will that affect the species
abundance of where will the stocks go?
And there are a n potential things that could
happen.
The size of the f reflecting kind of different
places with different temperatures.
And as you can see, the warmer waters,
you end up with these large relatively,
large cod and some colder waters the smaller ones
and this simply illustrates that one of the things that may
change as ocean temperatures chance is body size of the fish
that they caught in some places that could result in these kind
of the dramatic body specie changes.
The other thing we k is that in warm years,
many fish will move north to do their breeding and
change their and make use of more areas this
is the red arrow reflecting kind of the warm
period forward movement of and increase in the spawning
biomass of cod, it's latitude.
But in the colder years they cycle back down and will not go
as far north.
And now so we k green species are very
responsive to changes in temperature.
So we anticipate p size changes, certainly,
changes in where they breeding and how many of them
are breeding.
And in fact, p changes in the distribution of
fish populations
and this slide is illustrating hat very question along the
East Coast of the United States.
You can see Cape Cod pointed out there.
This beautiful corrals o Gulf stream flowing up the East
Coast, the blue water colder waters tucked in here
around the mainland up Canada.
And the graphic h see from 1850 to again,
a general upward trend in average temperatures of the
Atlantic along the East Coast with a lot of this pattern of
fluctuation.
There is a pattern t going up and down.
But I think what's particularly concerning is these high points
and whether or not this whole pattern cycle of temperature in
the Atlantic is actually on an upward shift.
And the hypothesis of course was that fish would follow
temperature and that is in fact exactly what we've been seeing.
Recent analysis going back over the past 40 years along the
East Coast has shown that there has been dramatic shifts in the
distribution of 60 percent of the major fish stock along this
coast.
60 percent have shifted o systems that we got.
The hypotheses that they would follow their preferred
temperatures and shift forward as the waters warm along the
Atlantic.
Some of them are s deeper again,
perhaps to stay with colder temperatures.
And the really f of this is that not all species
are moving at the same pace.
Some are moving f others.
Some only a distribution over this time but
some of them are forward at about
200-miles in the past 40 years.
And there has also been changes in their abundance,
in their timing when they reproduce.
And all of this i as a result in real nipping at
the bases that our coast.
And i interesting question including
the question of are there other factors affecting distribution?
Why do some species move faster than others?
And of course, what w future look like?
Will they continue to move at this pace?
Can we project out what t future assemblage of fish
species look like when our children or their children open
a guide to fish of the northeast Atlantic?
What will they see in t books?
There is a really f thinking about movement
following changes in temperature as this term about
climate velocity and basically the climate velocity is really
the how many miles per decade local or in any direction.
Temperature is as you saw and below down here,
60-degrees is and moved up there.
So that miles per decade i movement of that temperature
referred to as and one of questions is whether
or not species can keep up with the pace of their preferred
temperature.
So are our species k with the velocity of this
climate related temperature shifts in the marine
environment and the fascinating results that are coming out
that's in the species are actually following
their climate changes in temperature much
more directly
than we are in touch with the system.
It was not what people e but in marine systems,
marine bases are actually moving quite quickly as
temperatures systems.
And this b graphic is showing the more
intense are we're seeing some of the
greatest pace of of the temperature of regime
and of the marine involved.
And it's this k that people are now starting to
use using climate models and ocean models to project changes
in ocean temperature for the next 50 to a hundred years and
ask, well, given those changes, where might we expect fish
stocks along the be over those?
And then, the other area of fascinating research is looking
at specifically at some of the individual species.
You see a lobster there.
This was the l the middle where the middle of
his distribution was in I believe in the early 60's.
And since that t of the lobster distribution is
gone through quite dramatically and the interesting thing is
just recently, that if you start looking at a whole
variety of species along the East Coast of the United
States, as I said, have been moving at kind of an
average polar movement of about 12 miles per decade.
Recently, scientists h that same analysis for all of
the U.S.
coastal regions brilliant analysis,
reanalyzing data from all these regions once the distribution
of major fish stock over the past 50 years and that is
really
interesting patterns.
In many c movement of most of the marine
species is poleward following kind of forming ocean
temperatures.
In some places, it is not as clear what the pattern is along
the West Coast of the United States.
A general trend moving southward,
structuring cooling south.
And I don't know i the Gulf of Mexico.
It is a really i situation.
Of course those fish stock really can't move north unless
they would fall out of the water.
There is a westward movement and one of the hypotheses and
they reflect movement in some of the cooler and deeper areas
of the Gulf of Mexico.
But this raises a questions about well,
what else is going on.
Why some s more quickly than others and
what the other affecting them?
And one of those is of course the major impact that we have
had on particularly marine Fisheries, fish stock.
And an interesting hypotheses that at least some of the
patterns may distribution may reflect
actually effective management in some regions.
That is particularly a eastern United States.
Many of the fish stocks are now rebounding after being severely
depleted by over fishing.
And as they are rebounding, it may be that they -- that the
populations are retaking or re-entering areas where they
historically have found that they were perhaps there is
importance research and modeling question here about
where we see distribution.
How
much of that can we attribute to species following perhaps
temperatures versus how much over it may be because of
pressure from fisheries and other stresses.
So, will f moving stock?
What they do?
And the answer is p as much as they can.
So this is a plot showing r poleward shift of beautiful
fish called the red the Eastern United States from
about the 60's to about 2010.
across the right, and bottom to the bottom,
this is latitude and you see the light grey one of the
boundaries for the different states of New Jersey,
on the bottom of Massachusetts and the black jagged line are
landings or harvest of fish catch of Red Hake through the
years and where have been brought in or where
they been caught Jersey up to Massachusetts.
And you can see a trend where these fish were
being caught.
And the red line here is -- I'm sorry,
the black line is where the surveys have found them,
that is, the population surveys that the stocks are.
The red lines a fishermen have been landing
them or catching them.
An interesting pattern, e until about the 90's where the
red line was tracking the line,
the fishermen were distribution of the Red Hake.
But up until about that time.
But after that, the h the fishermen really hung out
here in bout the Rhode area and while the species
continued to move so, in this case,
parts of the pressure is well,
will the fisheries track the fish and the answer is yes,
up until a point when of course there are regulations perhaps
and other things in place that may prevent them from doing so.
In this case, that is apparently the case,
that these the fishing were excluded from moving
northward because they could not -- they were not allowed to
use certain nets that they have for a variety of reasons.
So in this case, the stocks -- the fish stocks kept moving
forward but the Sherie was expected of these mid-latitude
areas and of some interestingly important
implications for the both, for the fleet and for the
management of this fishery.
So, on a global basis, this could have some significant
implications for populations all over the world.
This is a graphic, interesting work.
I'm trying to ask the question, what will happen in the future
with ocean warming?
How will ocean w fish catches worldwide?
And this comes back t those issues that I talked
about, changing how the tropical or mid-latitude
areas.
These areas c these red circles may affect
these ecosystems for activity tie ecosystems versus how the
high latitude may be affected.
The red colors, the kind of red is the color here is more of a
decline in the projected catch of the fisheries compared to
where it was in 2005.
So you c tropical areas such called in
these red both in ocean but then,
particularly over in Asia, those
places are projected to have anywhere from 30 to 50 percent
or more reduction in catch of fisheries in those regions.
These are regions where most of those 1.
5 billion people depend for some of their primary
protein and food sources.
These are the places t to have major reductions in
fisheries and marine activity.
The areas up in the northern area, here the higher latitude,
the blue player area are projected to have -- were some
very dramatic increases in the fish catches and productivity
of those systems, perhaps even 50 to a hundred percent
increase in the productivity of those systems,
again going back to these cold northern waters,
perhaps increasing their productivity and their ability
to produce large scale fisheries,
half or twice as much we've ever seen before.
And again, these are projections based on what we
think will system.
And here's an interesting graphic that also tries to
capture those these two areas.
On the left to right here for the sub-tropics and the
tempered oceans and this is actually reflecting,
partially reflection that now have been documented
and observed.
And if I 1970's into the 2000's,
those average sub-tropical tempered areas,
the net, the has been changing over that
time.
The fish reflecting more of the northern colder water species
and the better more tropical warm water.
And as you can see
from this 2000's, those average catches in those sub-tempered
area have seen a decrease in the cold water species,
certainly the emitting tropical and tropical species and the
project of course as we play it out for the future is that at
some point, there would be enough warming.
So we're not catching a those cold water species like
cod and others along our Coast.
And in fact, the c really shifting entirely to
tropical and a-tropical catch.
In the true t again,
going from the 70's into the 2000's,
the major effect is a reduction in the overall catch.
There are no fish species moving into the tropical areas.
The stocks are moving out to the northern colder waters.
So what happens projecting into the future is that simply the
catch overall is reduced to tropical warm waters.
So finally, given these time of changes and the projections for
fisheries in and protective tee of ecosystems and the people
that depend on them, how can we begin to prepare for and
ultimately try and sustain and manage the Fisheries and other
species as these systems change?
I'm just laying out a little bit of a cartoon here just to
play out a scenario.
And some of the l and perhaps,
guidance for managing marine resources in a changing
climate.
So picture this: We've been talking about species and
moving pictures this beautiful Cobb like thing and that red
circle distribution somewhere on the
north south latitude and some depth range.
And with a changing climate everything from warming oceans
to acidification to perhaps hypocrisy or reduced oxygen as
the water warms and changes it's serenity,
the ideal conditions likes to live in determine its
traditional shift into higher latitudes and
perhaps a little bit deeper.
And so you can p line as its private shifted
distribution.
And in doing this, it perhaps sets in motion a whole variety
of things that we need to be considered.
For example, as it s forward to this new private
shift distribution, it into this other species here in
the green distribution may be a predator,
may be a competitor, it may be prey.
So that there is changing interaction in effect
ultimately survival and longevity up in
this area.
The other thing is that from a management perspective,
we had a local extinction in this lower attitudes,
it's no longer there.
That could affect perhaps the people that depend on it for
either jobs or food.
The other thing is that this down here,
pretend we had whole set of protected areas to
help protect its nursery ground and the places where it needed
to feed and grow.
It's now moved up h no longer able to use these
protected areas.
It rates as an management issue that we may need to consider
establishing additional protected areas within its blue
range and it raises the issue of what to do with those
protected areas that are being used by
this particular species.
And I'm bringing in a management context here as this
species may dramatically shifted its
distribution of costs, some governance boundaries.
There may be the line between the international boundary,
between two countries.
And so a shift l have completely shifted where
most of the the population place is and may
have affected dramatically what this country, A,
fishing treat can catch country, B imagine,
these kinds of shifts.
The agreement between country A and country B are often hard
fought over years negotiations of about how much fish country
A or country B or state A or state B can catch.
And so, this could t whole renegotiation hopefully,
if you there, nicely who gets to take what at what
time.
So I did that just to illustrate some of the
management issues shifting distribution of marine
resources.
And what I want to do now is just reflect a little bit on
some of the guidelines that people are considering in
response to the question of, what would climate Fishery
management be like?
How could we help stay marine resources in a changing climate
with changing oceans?
So my first principle i address the basics,
the basics of natural resource management of Fishery
management that is a lost focus on progress habitats for the
species so they thrive.
You have got to focus on the core principles of sustainable
fishing and the issues of global
fishing that can reassure students very quickly.
And the p ecosystems to held build
resilience and to make these changes and find new
ways so they can survive given the changes that
are taking place.
The second would be again, other core principles of
fisheries resource management, 101.
That is h populations,
much m resilient to populations.
Depleted fish s likely to be able to be
resilient and rebound changing conditions,
particularly if those conditions involve extreme
events.
So, some of those we know that there are some key
characteristics that help promote healthy fish
populations that include robust structures that having healthy
distribution against variability and
environmental conditions.
The big problem with that, the fact that the larger older
females have a major disproportion national impact
on recruitment.
They have more e eggs.
They have a p period.
So, you know, having population of a lot of of the big mamas
and really see that population growing and it often would take
hundreds and hundreds more smaller females to have the
same kind of effect.
But there are r about how do we ensure these
kinds even with characteristics,
how to ensure robust operation that is can be resilient with
changing conditions given the pace and scope of the climate
changes
that they are seeing and anticipating.
And, much of that w back to some of the hard core
nuts and bolts of management designing here that
only takes the target and leave the rest behind,
having closed areas, a kins of controls that protect
habitats and species to not damage the juveniles and
the other states like spawning.
And the other c to be cautious particularly
with emerging fisheries.
This is a map of A artic sea and we're both at sea
and the hatched area is the artic management area which is
increasing ice free and increasing being open and
potentially used for fishing in this artic area.
And many of the fish stocks are moving into this area with the
warming temperatures.
And what the N Service did consistent with
this principle cautious was to declare this
area off limits to fishing until we -- until we could
understand more about how it's staging and how best to use it.
So this is a nice example of precautionary approach to
resource management where despite the fact that there are
rich Fishery resources here, it was decided that this area
didn't know enough about how to be good stewards and managers
of this hear and set aside and.
And this will be an issue particularly on the East Coast
of the United States as well as any of the southern species
sweeping up towards the northern areas.
They may be the next c fisheries of the
future but, when you think carefully about when and how to
begin tapping those resources, because knowledge of the models
suggest if one hits -- if one over fishes them too quickly,
then, the setback, the commercial use of them for
many, many years.
And so, the point I w to make with this slide that
some species will changing climate.
The Atlantic croker shows this is a southern warmer water
species along our east coast, one of the ones sweeping
northward.
All indications that i going to survive better.
It's projected increase and you may have a commercial Fishery
about the future.
One needs to b to a level that can tolerate a
commercial.
And lastly, one needs to carefully consider one of the
reference points when needed so Fishery again is based on a
series of estimates, how much fish can be caught in the
coming year based on the estimates?
And often, those e based on looking s in the past
how many fish and a translates to a certain number
of fish in the future.
And this slide, this p is basically saying that our
relationships, the we have made about how many
fish will be there in future based on the past may no
longer hold.
That is, the c condition,
we need to rethink perhaps some of our reference points and our
calculations of future populations with these species.
So this principle is know what to expect.
That is take into a all the information
we can and think carefully about those projected future
changes in ocean temperature.
We are i sophisticated projections and
can at least several scenarios of what we
think that picture is adding our management planning.
And this slide is a f series of twigs fall but it is
simply to allow me to make the point that not knowing
what the future will be requires knowing where we been
and what the past patterns have been.
And this is a series of interesting graphics from the
Baron Sea from 1900 to about a hundred years and it is really
nice illustration of inter-annual -- the different
kinds of variability, year to year variation,
up and down in temperature.
And in these b ten year cycles and even
broader 100 year cycles affect all of our ocean area.
This is the context in w we're trying to understand if
things have really changed.
I'm going to quickly skip forward here on the last piece
of advice would be monitoring for surprises and in fact be
prepared for surprises.
We cannot really be prepared for response and effectively
manage our marine resources if we don't have our finger on the
pulse of the system.
And lastly, we need to be thinking carefully about the
barriers to adaptation.
I've spoken a lot ab and the change to the
biological part of the and of course,
the users resources are many.
And many of them are Fishers and oddly,
it is important question issues related to how can we
promote resilience adaptation of the social economic side of
the fishing communities .
So, I'm going to quickly skip through this because I know the
time is past but basically this is probably the best example
that the circle going from upper right and around ending
up at that round box.
This says cut.
of to 1.
8 million times.
This story happened in about 2005,
'06 and '07 where our observing system in the Baron Sea started
recording warming temperatures in the Baron Sea.
And concurrently, the Baron Sea pollock which is the largest
and most productive Fishery in the United States.
You buy fish s publically what you're buying.
And this is r for you because this community
had -- the Baron Sea, we had bowies and observing system,
allowed d changes as they were happening.
The management council in that area was open to and tracking
these changes and the time came and the recommendation from the
experts was that given that there were -- the baby pollocks
were not showing up and the system was shifting to the no
productivity system, that the Fishery should reduce the
harvest of the pollick and this meant millions of dollars of
lost revenue to these major commercial fisheries.
And the big new was that the fisheries agreed with the
council and said, we need to do this because if we don't do
this, we may into a complete crash that will
take decades if recover.
So it is a really nice example where
having our finger on the pulse of the ocean ecosystems,
having being able to combine that with science information,
having industry and it was reflective
of the Fishery management process,
led to proactive changes in history management that I
believe led to quickly than it otherwise would
after these changes rebounded and the system began changing
again, several years later.
So in summary climate has made a impact system,
coastal warming is already impacted a number of
features productivity,
you see distribution -- they do follow and that usually
translates into a polar shift and is resulting in what is
referred to as a tropicalization of the world's
fisheries, that species and increase in
southern ones.
And it continues the tropical fish stocks will have major
implications for people in countries in those tropical
areas and whose fish or food and jobs,
these impacts are to with continued changes in our
climate system.
But we have tools and principle to be to begin adapting now.
So I remain hopeful.
What can we do?
You have an important role in that.
Be informed.
A number of w action on greenhouse gas
submissions.
I;m promoting resilience adaptation and particularly on
why conservation, what is the resources.
There are a number o go for more information,
the National Federation has tremendous
resources on
particularly for natural resources.
But the fish f a strategy speaks to this man's
website called the Adaptation Knowledge,
and so I think I'll leave you where that.
Thank you very much.
>> >> BRUCE: Thanks, thanks so much Roger.
Judging from a lot o comments and questions that we
received, you have a new club that you're going to have
to deal with which is good news.
We are running a little b over but I would be remiss if I
did not ask you some that some of our climate
stewards have sent in.
And please be aware if we don't get to all the questions that
have come in, if you want to type the questions in,
we will provide these to Roger who will then provide us back
with some answers as soon as he can.
So, Roger, I guess one of the questions that we have here: It
says that -- let me just go here for moment.
It says: T surface temperature was for
about ten to 20-degrees north in the Atlantic.
One, are these a similar in all ocean basins and
are they normally enhanced the further one trends
towards the pole?
>> >> ROGER: Wow, great question.
No, it would not be s because the patterns and
individuals will be quite different.
The Atlantic has its o of cycles different from the
Pacific El mino cycles.
So it's going to be different but I think in all cases,
there variabilities usually.
It is not multi year
cycles.
>> BRUCE: The last part of the question asked if the anomalies
were depressed or enhanced the further one trends towards the
poles?
>> >> ROGER: I don't know.
>> >> BRUCE: Well, you can get back to us.
That's okay.
We had another excellent question her which is here if I
can just scroll down through some of these for a moment.
Which is: Can you tell us th impacts that you are aware of
regarding U.S.
fresh water species as a point of reference?
If you are aware?
>> Sure.
In general, this -- w course you can't move as much.
So a lot of concern f cold water species like in the
this United States, a modeling going on,
If I had to try to project based on temperature changes
where cold water trout would be able to survive places where
in-house you have to survive in New Orleans.
I think it will be a tr body of work as been done and
people are doing some interesting modeling.
Of course, there is a great mitigation that can be done or
adaptation , Particularly restoring areas key to who help
shade them so that you can offset some of that coming in.
A lot of concern about cold water and fresh water species.
>> >> BRUCE: Yes.
One question t was what about less local
marine species.
Is there any data about impacts on climate change on them and
certainly, you have touched upon the American lobster.
In the northern latitude which pretty much walks rather than
swims.
But do have any data on some of species?
<< ROGER: It is a really interesting question.
I'm back to research now.
The Australian p most advanced in looking at
patterns of distribution or based on their
more -- whether they to the bottom or not.
I don't think there are any patterns other than things that
can be dispute well even as marvelous base.
>> BRUCE: Here is an interesting question and I'll
read it slowly: April asks if she read the graphs correctly,
fish or larger in warmer waters even though the warmer waters
are likely to result in less phyto blanket.
So if the larger s result of less competition
among species or when the fish are harvested,
breeding season in and feeding season in the cold
water.
Or is it more fu ocean deficit?
>> ROGER: That is a great question.
You guys are really p attention.
I would probably not used that graph the way it is because
it's specifically to cold water northern latitude.
So what that i warmer temperatures there
reflecting productivity of the echo
systems.
So again, it's s those in warmer areas,
say off Norway.
That can p productivity in those colder --
otherwise colder waters.
Not a great example.
But thank you.
>> >> BRUCE: Sure and just two final questions for you.
One: Is there any evidence or research that's being done
looking at how fresh water from glacier melt may be affecting
fisheries?
>> >> ROGER: Yeah, there are a lot of people looking at that
and thinking about it and trying to model that.
So -- but I mean, so one of the examples is along the East
Coast, our East North Atlantic met with the
Greenland sheets and places producing very cold
fresh water that actually times moving southward into
places like the Gulf of and the effect that may have on
some of those systems.
I guess the good news is that the models are suggesting
perhaps that in the near term, those tons of cold water,
fresher water heading southward along the coast up in Nova
Scotia may actually make the Gulf of Maine.
Those areas may a those ecosystems colder for a
longer period of time.
So it's inching in width o sheets,
that cold water ocean system may actually
create some refugia.
>> BRUCE: And you know, just one question,
our final question is,
what about Atlanta salmon being affected by warmer water such
that it's not Connecticut rivers in great
numbers.
Are any other s this way?
>> >> ROGER: There is a lot of concern for other species like
that.
There are a number of them.
Along those same rivers, R Herring and a variety of others
surge up and down the Coast.
There are concerns b will have to deal with changes
on the ocean side cycle but then,
also on the fresh water side of
their life cycle, the changing patterns of precipitation
within the system and it's not just the amount of water
although that is important but also the timing
when that comes, whether comes as a slow precipitation
or it comes as flash floods in the springtime.
How much and w a big difference to those river
species.
So there is concern.
There is a lot of bottling and settling being done.
There are a about why Atlantic salmon has
not come eastern rivers and people
looking back and patterns to see how much of
that may be part of that story.
>> Well, thanks so much Roger.
We have certainly gone far over our time and I would like this
thank you for your time this evening for a great
presentation.
We just have a f announcements for this
leaving's webinar and then, we will let folks go but again,
thank you so much Roger for your nine and your expertise.
This evening.
>> ROGER: Thanks everyone, goodnight.
>> >> BRUCE: So just a few more educational resources that we
would like to provide you.
We have an excellent Wild Life and Wild Land tool kit where
there is an excellent video looking at climate change
impact on a number of r species including marine species.
One example of t have along with a -- along with
a wonderful activity that sort of focuses on the middle school
level is the change on western coastlines as
physically tuna
and salmon.
Then, theres' an e reminder resources looking at
corral reefs, especially if one takes a look at lesson six
which is in this below looking at the affected
sea surface temperature and the relationship to corral reef.
And finally, t questions that came about
focused on ocean and looking at that impact on
corral ecosystems.
And here we have a wonderful online module from data in the
classroom which is a wonderful online interactive series of
resources looking at obviously ocean citification And then,
finally, a good link to an ocean citification podcast.
That is just terrific for using in the classroom.
Finally, just g our announcements,
the webinar poll emailed to everyone.
So if you check your email right after this webinar,
you will have access to that poll.
Please go there.
Please answer a us as soon as you can.
We would really appreciate it.
Also, NOAA C book club,
February 24th will be discussing Chasing Ice.
Jacob Tenebaum is our guest facilitator and it is a really
exciting story about National Geographical photographer,
Jamie as he captured undeniable crew of climate crew by
launching an ambitious extreme ice survey which entails using
time lapse putting over 30 cameras on
shifting ice glaciers.
Don't miss it.
And also, a wonderful climate workshop that we're doing at
the National Science Teachers
Association in Boston Saturday, April 5th as well as lots of
other professional development opportunities focused on
climate.
Finally, this evening, I some announcements for
everybody.
We're going to have a archive of webinar which will
be emailed to all NOAA stewards certainly within 24
hours if not sooner.
But notes and PDFs of all the slide,
presented during the are going to be available on
the meeting notes 24 hours.
The link is there so stay tuned for that.
Also, please don't forget, all climate stewards are expected
to complete a reflection of this webinar posted to their
personal wicki page, webinar reflections form is available
at this link.
And also, something that we just want to reinforce is that
in order to complete the professional development
requirements in time for the possibility of submitting a
mini grant proposal, we recommend that all NOAA climate
stewards approximately,
one hour professional development each
month, write a and post it to their personal
wicki page.
There are great self directed professional development
resources on the Climate Stewards wicki.
I can link us b get sent out to everyone and a
PD reflection available here.
So, I would like to thank every one for attending this evening.
Look forward to being in touch with you and appreciate all of
you being in touch with your regional leaders.
We know there have been a lot of great questions along the
way and a couple of hiccups but we will work hard to make sure
they are all worked out.
So thanks very much and have a terrific evening and we wish
you a goodnight.
Thanks so much.
Bye-bye.